Lernayin Artsakh vs Shirak II Result & Analysis

Recent form tells a story of two sides still finding rhythm. Lernayin Artsakh, after a 1-3 loss to Mika, are looking to rebound, while Shirak II, fresh from a 2-1 win over Ararat II, have shown they can hit the net. The model favours a home win, with a 49% chance for Lernayin, 20% for a draw and 30% for Shirak. The expected total of 4.3 goals and a 27% probability of 6 + goals point to a high-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for the home side, a 7.3% chance. Lernayin’s home form shows 1.38 goals scored and 2.5 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Shirak’s away form is more potent, 2.25 scored and only 1.0 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 1.5 (93.7%), Over 2.5 (80.9%) and BTTS Yes (78.4%). All three outcomes are presented with their exact percentages, and the suggested picks are listed with their probabilities.

The upset came as Lernayin Artsakh, the pre-match favourite, fell short of the model’s 49% chance to win. The final score was 1-2, giving Shirak II an away victory. The model’s prediction of a home win was wrong. The suggested picks all hit: Over 1.5 goals with a 93.7% probability, Over 2.5 goals at 80.9%, and BTTS Yes at 78.4%. Lernayin’s recent form - one win and three losses - was a stark contrast to Shirak’s recent win and three losses, yet the away side’s stronger average goals conceded (1.0) helped them secure the win. The match delivered more goals than the model’s 4.3 expectation, with the most likely total of 6+ at 27%.