Levante vs Villarreal Result & Analysis

The model favours an away win, with a 55% chance for Villarreal, a 26% chance for a draw and a 19% chance for Levante. The expected total goals hover around 2.6, centring on a 2-goal total that carries a 26% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.4% chance. Levante, on home turf, has scored an average of 2.0 goals and conceded 0.5 against weaker opposition, while Villarreal, playing away, has a similar scoring rate but has conceded only 0.5 on the road. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 98.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 95.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 93.9%, Over 23.5 fouls at 89.7%, Over 3.5 cards at 85.1%, Over 25.5 fouls at 80.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 77.7% and Over 1.5 at 75.0%. The match is set to be a tight affair, with the away side’s recent defeat and the home side’s recent win suggesting a cautious approach, but the statistical edge remains firmly with Villarreal.

The pre-match favourite, an away win, fell short as Levante secured a 1-0 victory, extending their recent win streak after a 5-2 triumph over Real Betis. The model had assigned a 55% probability to the away win, but the result was a home win, so the model’s pick was wrong. The model’s selection of the most likely total of 2 goals at 26% came close to the 1-0 scoreline. All suggested picks were settled: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 98.1%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 95.2%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 93.9%, Over 23.5 fouls hit at 89.7%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 85.1%, Over 25.5 fouls hit at 80.9%, Over 8.5 corners hit at 77.7%, and Over 1.5 missed at 75.0%.