The match between Leyton Orient and Barnsley is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. Home win odds sit at 35%, a draw at 28%, and an away win at 36%. The expected total is 2.7 goals, but the most likely total is 2, which occurs 26% of the time. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 13.4% chance.
Leyton Orient, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.36 conceded. Barnsley, on the road, averages 1.23 goals scored and 1.46 conceded against similar opposition. Leyton Orient’s recent form is a draw after a 0-0 stalemate with Walsall, while Barnsley come off a 3-2 win over Crewe.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.9% with a 3% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.5% with a 4% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.7% with a 4% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 95.7% with a 5% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.2% with a 5% edge, and Away under 3.5 goals at 95.0% with a 2% edge.
Results analysis
The win extends Leyton Orient’s recent run, but Barnsley’s two-game winning streak proved decisive as the model’s favourite, an away victory, came through with a 1-3 result. The prediction of a 1-3 scoreline was accurate, and the expected total of 2.7 goals was exceeded by the 4-goal tally. The model’s selection of an away win, with a 36% probability, was correct. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 at 99.3%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.0%, Under 6.5 at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 97.6%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 96.0%, Home under 3.5 goals at 95.2%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 95.0%. The model’s selections performed remarkably well.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Leyton Orient win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied 41.6% · @ 2.24
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.32
Unibet
2.30
Superbet
2.27
BetVictor
2.25
William Hil
2.25
Draw✗ Miss
28.2%
Avg Implied 26.7% · @ 3.48
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.79
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.56
Unibet
3.55
Barnsley win✓ Hit
36.5%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.93
Edge
+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.02
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Betfair
3.00
1xBet
2.96
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Leyton Orient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.27
1.47
0.87
1.20
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.96
1.25
1.29
1.36
0.64
1.14
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
2.50
1.00
3.00
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.60
1.44
1.56
1.21
1.64
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
4.00
-
-
1.00
4.00
vs Similar (27)
1.22
1.44
1.21
1.43
1.23
1.46
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
2.50
3.00
2.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
@ 1.23+1.3%
Under 1.5
23.4%
@ 3.77-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Under
Betfair
4.10
Pinnacle
4.02
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.85
10Bet
3.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.78-1.8%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 1.99+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Betfair
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Under
Pinnacle
2.06
Superbet
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.9%
@ 2.90-3.2%
Under 3.5
71.1%
@ 1.37+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.01
10Bet
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Betano
2.87
Under
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.3%
@ 1.63-0.5%
No
43.7%
@ 2.15+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.65
Betfair
1.65
Unibet
1.64
Superbet
1.63
1xBet
1.62
No
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.17
BetVictor
2.15
Superbet
2.15
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 6.29+6.3%
1-2
8.4%@ 9.74+3.8%
2-1
8.2%@ 8.35+2.8%
0-1
7.9%@ 9.62+3.2%
0-0
7.9%@ 11.13+3.8%
1-0
7.7%@ 8.20+2.2%
0-2
6.2%@ 14.79+3.2%
2-0
6.0%@ 10.96+1.9%
Leyton Orient goals ↓
Barnsley goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.9%
7.9%
6.2%
2.8%
1.0%
1
7.7%
13%
8.4%
3.8%
1.3%
2
6.0%
8.2%
5.6%
2.6%
0.9%
3
2.7%
3.7%
2.5%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.9%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Leyton Orient goals (down), columns = Barnsley goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leicester
2.34
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Oxford
1.58
Stevenage
1.56
Sheffield Weds
1.49
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Milton Keynes Dons
1.38
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Cambridge
1.21
Burton
1.17
Notts County
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Bromley
1.08
Leyton Orient is 0.15 points worse than Barnsley in terms of average points per game (1.13 vs 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Leicester
2.24
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Stockport
1.53
Oxford
1.51
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Sheffield Weds
1.42
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Milton Keynes Dons
1.32
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Cambridge
1.15
Notts County
1.12
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Bromley
1.03
Stevenage
1.02
Leyton Orient is 0.20 goals worse than Barnsley in terms of goals scored per game (1.28 vs 1.48).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leicester
0.77
Stevenage
1.02
Mansfield
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Oxford
1.14
Sheffield Weds
1.21
Luton
1.22
Wycombe
1.26
Wigan
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Milton Keynes Dons
1.30
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Cambridge
1.49
Doncaster
1.50
Notts County
1.54
Leyton Orient
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Bromley
1.67
Leyton Orient is 0.04 goals better than Barnsley in terms of goals conceded per game (1.54 vs 1.59).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Leyton Orient is 0.3 percentage points better than Barnsley in terms of average possession (52% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Leyton Orient
For 5.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.5 · Against 12.9 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Barnsley
For 7.4 · Against 6.5 · Total 13.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 9.5 · Total 20.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Leyton Orient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.1
9.2
4.0
3.7
4.3
23.4
23.6
23.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (47)
9.7
10.1
9.4
4.1
3.7
4.5
23.7
24.0
23.3
vs Weaker (3)
7.3
9.0
6.5
2.3
3.0
2.0
19.3
13.0
22.5
% over line
52%
58%
46%
62%
58%
65%
66%
67%
65%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
38%
42%
35%
34%
33%
35%
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.4
11.2
11.6
3.3
3.6
2.8
20.4
21.7
19.0
vs Stronger (2)
12.0
8.0
16.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
21.5
30.0
13.0
vs Similar (45)
11.0
10.6
11.4
3.4
4.0
2.9
20.5
21.6
19.3
vs Weaker (3)
20.0
20.0
-
1.3
1.3
-
19.0
19.0
-
% over line
57%
58%
57%
44%
59%
26%
43%
58%
26%
% under line
43%
42%
43%
56%
41%
74%
57%
42%
74%
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Barnsley
11.3
Oxford
11.3
Plymouth
11.2
Leicester
10.9
Wigan
10.6
Bromley
10.4
Luton
10.4
Blackpool
10.4
Huddersfield
10.3
Burton
10.3
Sheffield Weds
10.2
Bradford
10.2
Peterboro
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Stockport
10.0
AFC Wimbledon
9.9
Doncaster
9.9
Mansfield
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Notts County
9.4
Reading
9.3
Milton Keynes Dons
9.0
Cambridge
9.0
Stevenage
8.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.8
Notts County
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Bradford
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.8
Stevenage
3.8
Leicester
3.8
Blackpool
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Milton Keynes Dons
3.7
Bromley
3.7
Luton
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Burton
3.6
Reading
3.6
Oxford
3.4
Barnsley
3.4
Stockport
3.3
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
Wigan
3.1
Cambridge
3.1
Sheffield Weds
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Notts County
24.7
Bradford
24.6
Stevenage
24.6
Plymouth
24.5
Huddersfield
24.2
Luton
23.8
Peterboro
23.7
Leyton Orient
23.4
Blackpool
23.4
Milton Keynes Dons
23.3
Wigan
23.3
AFC Wimbledon
22.9
Cambridge
22.5
Oxford
22.5
Doncaster
22.5
Reading
22.4
Leicester
22.4
Mansfield
22.2
Burton
22.2
Sheffield Weds
21.9
Bromley
21.7
Wycombe
21.4
Stockport
20.9
Barnsley
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.8%
@ 1.58+2.5%
Under 9.5
39.2%
@ 2.22-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Betfair
2.25
1xBet
2.19
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.6%
Under 3.5
57.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
53.4%
Under 21.5
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Leyton Orient or Draw✗ Miss
63.5%
Avg Implied 68.1% · @ 1.37
Edge
-4.6%
35%
28%
36%
covers Leyton Orient + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.42
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
1xBet
1.37
Leyton Orient or Barnsley✓ Hit
71.8%
Avg Implied 73.5% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.7%
35%
28%
36%
covers Leyton Orient + Barnsley
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Draw or Barnsley✓ Hit
64.7%
Avg Implied 58.3% · @ 1.60
Edge
+6.3%
35%
28%
36%
covers Draw + Barnsley
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
1xBet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
73.9%
@ 1.21-2.8%
Under
26.1%
@ 4.00+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
Under
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.13
BetVictor
4.10
1xBet
4.05
Superbet
4.00
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
38.9%
@ 2.08-6.1%
Under
61.1%
@ 1.70+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Under
Pinnacle
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.72
1xBet
1.72
Superbet
1.72
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.3%
@ 4.41-5.8%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.18+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.80
Marathonbet
4.50
1xBet
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Under
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
Leyton Orient over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 9.65-5.0%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.04+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.10
Betano
8.50
Under
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
Barnsley over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.6%
@ 1.30+3.1%
Under
25.4%
@ 3.25-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
BetVictor
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Superbet
3.25
Barnsley over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.7%
@ 2.49+2.4%
Under
60.3%
@ 1.49-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.61
Betfair
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.50
Barnsley over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
15.9%
@ 5.86+0.1%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.10-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.95
1xBet
5.95
BetVictor
5.75
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Barnsley over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 13.67-1.9%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.02+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Leyton Orient, so a minus line means Leyton Orient give that many goals of a start and Barnsley receive them. At -1, Leyton Orient must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Leyton Orient win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Leyton Orient)Actual: Barnsley
Leyton Orient -2
5.9%
@ 9.02-4.1%
Draw -2
10.6%
@ 6.26-3.7%
Barnsley +2
83.5%
@ 1.18+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
10.00
Marathonbet
8.70
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
Superbet
6.10
Unibet
6.00
Away
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Handicap -1 (Leyton Orient)Actual: Barnsley
Leyton Orient -1
16.5%
@ 4.19-4.8%
Draw -1
18.8%
@ 3.92-4.0%
Barnsley +1
64.7%
@ 1.60+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Draw
Superbet
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.84
Away
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (Leyton Orient)Actual: Barnsley
Leyton Orient +1
63.5%
@ 1.37-1.9%
Draw +1
19.2%
@ 4.58-0.4%
Barnsley -1
17.3%
@ 5.97+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Bet365
1.36
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Superbet
4.60
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
Unibet
5.60
Handicap +2 (Leyton Orient)Actual: Draw
Leyton Orient +2
82.7%
@ 1.10-0.3%
Draw +2
11.0%
@ 8.53+0.3%
Barnsley -2
6.3%
@ 14.67+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.60
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
12.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Leyton Orient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.73
0.67
0.33
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.50
0.68
0.71
0.64
0.29
0.71
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.81
0.69
0.57
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.63
0.57
0.57
0.54
0.69
vs Weaker (2)
2.50
1.50
2.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.0%
@ 1.33+0.0%
Under 0.5
30.0%
@ 3.11-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
William Hil
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
33.6%
@ 2.57-2.4%
Under 1.5
66.4%
@ 1.45+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.70
Pinnacle
2.68
Bet365
2.62
Betfair
2.60
1xBet
2.59
Under
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
BetVictor
1.46
Betano
1.45
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.4%
@ 6.39-3.2%
Under 2.5
88.6%
@ 1.09+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.50
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.10
1xBet
6.10
Under
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
45.5%
@ 1.88-3.8%
Under
54.5%
@ 1.83+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Pinnacle
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Superbet
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 5.51-4.9%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.11+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Superbet
5.40
Betano
5.40
10Bet
5.25
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.4%
@ 15.17-3.9%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
17.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
Barnsley over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.5%
@ 2.11-2.5%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.66+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Barnsley over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 6.78-3.2%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.07+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
6.50
10Bet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
Barnsley over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.0%
@ 19.17-3.0%
Under
98.0%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
23.00
Superbet
22.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Leyton Orient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.60
0.53
0.80
0.53
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (28)
0.46
0.57
0.57
0.71
0.36
0.43
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
3.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Barnsley) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Barnsley
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.87
0.62
0.88
0.64
0.86
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
0.67
0.81
0.64
0.86
0.69
0.77
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Leyton Orient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.3%
@ 1.20-0.3%
Under 0.5
22.7%
@ 4.16+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Under
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.15
Superbet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.15
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.5%
@ 1.98-4.6%
Under 1.5
57.5%
@ 1.76+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Under
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
Superbet
1.76
1xBet
1.76
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
18.5%
@ 4.07-4.3%
Under 2.5
81.5%
@ 1.21+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Superbet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Leyton Orient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
53.4%
@ 1.63-3.5%
Under
46.6%
@ 2.15+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.62
Under
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Leyton Orient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
18.1%
@ 4.04-4.8%
Under
81.9%
@ 1.20+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Superbet
4.00
1xBet
4.00
Betano
3.85
Under
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Leyton Orient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.0%
@ 10.67-4.8%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
10Bet
11.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Barnsley over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
49.4%
@ 1.80-2.1%
Under
50.6%
@ 1.91+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
10Bet
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.78
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.90
10Bet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
Barnsley over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.3%
@ 4.92-2.5%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.14+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.15
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
4.90
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.65
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
Barnsley over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 13.42-3.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.02+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
15.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
10Bet
1.01
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
10Bet
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.02
-
+5.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.04
Bet365
1.05
Betano
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.05
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.6%
1.09
William Hil
1.11
Superbet
1.11
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.11
BetVictor
1.07
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
88.1%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.09
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5
86.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Pinnacle
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Superbet
1.14
10Bet
1.13
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.7%
1.18
Pinnacle
1.21
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.17
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
BetVictor
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-0.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
83.7%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
1xBet
1.13
10Bet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.12
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
83.5%
1.18
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.17
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.7%
1.10
Superbet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.08
-
-
-0.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
81.9%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.21
1xBet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
+4.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.21
Betano
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+4.3%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.20
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.23
BetVictor
1.26
Betano
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Superbet
1.23
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
74.6%
1.30
Betano
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+3.1%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
73.9%
1.21
Pinnacle
1.23
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
72.5%
1.33
Superbet
1.39
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.36
Betfair
1.30
1xBet
1.29
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.8%
1.27
Bet365
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
-1.7%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.1%
1.37
Bet365
1.40
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.39
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.0%
1.33
Betano
1.39
BetVictor
1.35
Pinnacle
1.34
Superbet
1.34
10Bet
1.33
+0.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Leyton Orient
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Yusuf Akhamrich50%
Armando Dobra33%
T. Springett25%
N. Oyekunle25%
I. El Mizouni20%
D. Mitchell20%
J. Kabia20%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
F. Stevens0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Isaac Hayden60%
F. Stevens60%
T. Springett25%
Theo Archibald20%
I. El Mizouni20%
J. Kabia20%
Phillip Chinedu20%
D. Mitchell0%
Armando Dobra0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
Charlie Wellens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Yusuf Akhamrich0%
N. Oyekunle0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
T. Springett50%
Charlie Wellens25%
Yusuf Akhamrich25%
D. Mitchell20%
J. Kabia20%
Isaac Hayden0%
Theo Archibald0%
I. El Mizouni0%
Armando Dobra0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
F. Stevens0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
N. Oyekunle0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Charlie Wellens25%
Yusuf Akhamrich25%
Isaac Hayden20%
D. Mitchell20%
J. Kabia20%
Theo Archibald0%
I. El Mizouni0%
Armando Dobra0%
Joseph Olowu0%
James Morris0%
F. Stevens0%
T. Springett0%
Noah Phillips0%
Z. Obiero0%
Phillip Chinedu0%
N. Oyekunle0%
Barnsley
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. McGeehan60%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Luca Connell0%
Patrick Kelly0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jonathan Bland50%
Leo Farrell33%
Sam Gale25%
Tyrese Noslin25%
Rogan Ravenhill25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Reyes Cleary0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Luke Alker0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Reyes Cleary40%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
C. McGeehan0%
Amani Richards0%
Makenzie Kirk0%
Sam Gale0%
Tyrese Noslin0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tyrese Noslin50%
Reyes Cleary40%
Amani Richards25%
Makenzie Kirk25%
C. McGeehan20%
Patrick Kelly20%
Luca Connell0%
Sam Gale0%
Jonathan Bland0%
Luke Alker0%
Rogan Ravenhill0%
Leo Farrell0%
Arley Kay0%
Noah Philip Town0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (22)
€69m
LUT (26)
€29m
SHW (24)
€21m
OXF (24)
€20m
HUD (26)
€16m
MKD (24)
€15m
PLY (25)
€13m
BLA (22)
€11m
LO (23)
€10m
STO (25)
€10m
WYC (24)
€10m
REA (20)
€10m
BAR (21)
€8m
WIG (21)
€7m
PET (23)
€7m
BRA (21)
€7m
STE (21)
€7m
DON (23)
€7m
MAN (23)
€6m
NC (24)
€6m
AW (21)
€5m
CAM (20)
€5m
BUR (17)
€5m
BRO (19)
€4m
Leyton Orient's squad is €3m more valuable than Barnsley's (€10m vs €8m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (7)
€20m
LUT (10)
€13m
SHW (6)
€7m
OXF (8)
€6m
MKD (8)
€5m
PLY (8)
€4m
LO (6)
€4m
BLA (8)
€4m
HUD (7)
€4m
STO (8)
€3m
REA (6)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
PET (8)
€3m
WYC (7)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
CAM (9)
€2m
WIG (8)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
BUR (6)
€1m
MAN (6)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
Leyton Orient's attack is €2m more valuable than Barnsley's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (4)
€13m
MKD (6)
€7m
SHW (5)
€6m
OXF (4)
€6m
LUT (6)
€4m
HUD (6)
€4m
MAN (5)
€3m
LO (8)
€3m
REA (5)
€3m
STO (6)
€3m
BAR (7)
€3m
BLA (5)
€3m
PLY (6)
€3m
WIG (8)
€2m
WYC (5)
€2m
DON (6)
€2m
NC (7)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
BUR (4)
€1m
PET (5)
€1m
BRO (6)
€1m
BRA (3)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
CAM (3)
€1m
Leyton Orient and Barnsley have a similar midfield value (both €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LEI (11)
€36m
LUT (10)
€12m
OXF (12)
€8m
SHW (13)
€8m
HUD (13)
€8m
PLY (11)
€6m
WYC (12)
€5m
BLA (9)
€4m
STO (11)
€4m
REA (9)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
LO (9)
€3m
STE (9)
€3m
DON (11)
€3m
MKD (10)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (5)
€3m
CAM (8)
€2m
AW (8)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
MAN (12)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
Leyton Orient and Barnsley have a similar defence value (both €3m).
England: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →
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Huddersfield
Sheffield Weds
Blackpool
Burton
Cambridge
Luton
Stockport
Notts County
Bradford
Mansfield
Leicester
Reading
Oxford
Plymouth
Peterboro
AFC Wimbledon
Bromley
Doncaster
Stevenage
Wigan
Milton Keynes Dons
Wycombe