The contest between Libertas and Faetano is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but leaving room for a draw or a Faetano victory. The probabilities are 39% for Libertas, 27% for a draw and 34% for Faetano. The expected goal tally is 2.9, with the most likely total of 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability.
Libertas, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Faetano, on the road, averages 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded.
The model’s selections are: Over 19.5 fouls99.1%, Under 7.599.0%, Over 21.5 fouls97.4%, Under 6.597.1%, Away under 3.5 goals94.8%, Over 23.5 fouls93.9%, Home under 3.5 goals93.3%, and Under 5.592.6%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Libertas win
44.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Faetano win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Libertas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.13
1.21
2.36
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
3.33
0.86
3.71
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.67
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.80
0.80
1.47
0.60
2.13
vs Stronger (10)
0.30
2.00
0.20
1.40
0.40
2.60
vs Similar (20)
0.90
1.70
1.10
1.50
0.70
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.0%
Under 1.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
55.9%
Under 2.5
44.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
33.6%
Under 3.5
66.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
59.5%
No
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
7.6%
1-2
7.4%
2-0
7.1%
0-0
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
Libertas goals ↓
Faetano goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.8%
4.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
7.6%
12%
7.4%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.1%
9.2%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.9%
5.0%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.6%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Libertas goals (down), columns = Faetano goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Libertas is 0.43 points better than Faetano in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 0.73).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Libertas is 0.33 goals better than Faetano in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 0.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Libertas is 0.23 goals worse than Faetano in terms of goals conceded per game (2.06 vs 1.83).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Libertas
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Faetano
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Libertas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
12.0
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
12.0
12.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (19)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
24.5%
Under 9.5
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
60.9%
Under 3.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.4%
Under 21.5
2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Libertas or Draw
70.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
29%
covers Libertas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas or Faetano
73.4%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
29%
covers Libertas + Faetano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Faetano
56.0%
Avg Implied -
44%
27%
29%
covers Draw + Faetano
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Libertas over/under 0.5
Over
80.3%
Under
19.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5
Over
22.3%
Under
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 3.5
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5
Over
72.7%
Under
27.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5
Over
37.2%
Under
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 3.5
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Libertas, so a minus line means Libertas give that many goals of a start and Faetano receive them. At -1, Libertas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Libertas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Libertas)
Libertas -2
9.7%
Draw -2
13.6%
Faetano +2
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Libertas)
Libertas -1
23.3%
Draw -1
20.7%
Faetano +1
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Libertas)
Libertas +1
70.6%
Draw +1
16.3%
Faetano -1
13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Libertas)
Libertas +2
86.9%
Draw +2
8.7%
Faetano -2
4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Libertas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.36
0.86
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
1.43
0.38
1.88
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.20
0.83
0.13
0.87
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (10)
0.10
0.90
0.00
0.60
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (20)
0.25
0.80
0.20
1.00
0.30
0.60
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Libertas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.86
1.50
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
2.29
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Faetano) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Faetano
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.97
0.67
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Stronger (10)
0.20
1.10
0.20
0.80
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.90
0.90
0.50
0.40
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Faetano over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Over 19.5 fouls
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Libertas and Faetano have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Libertas and Faetano have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Libertas and Faetano have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Libertas and Faetano have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Folgore
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Murata