Libertas vs Folgore Result & Analysis

The model predicts an away win for Folgore, with a 54% chance of victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 20% chance of a home win. The expected total goals hover around 2.7, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 12.5% probability. Libertas, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.67 goals scored and 3.33 conceded, while Folgore, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 99.1%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.4%, Over 23.5 fouls at 93.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 89.0%, Over 25.5 fouls at 87.7%, Under 10.5 corners at 81.9%, Over 2.5 cards at 78.9%, and Over 1.5 goals at 75.6%, which was hit. The match is expected to feature a high number of fouls, fewer corners, and a moderate card count, with Folgore’s recent form - five games of four wins and one loss - suggesting a strong offensive performance.

The win for Folgore extends their winning run, while Libertas finish a draw in their recent run. The final score was 2-4, an away win that matched the model’s pick. The model had assigned a 54% probability to an away victory, and it proved correct. The suggested pick Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.6% chance, hit as the match produced six goals. All selections settled as indicated: the model’s favourite was right, and the single extra selection also succeeded. The match confirmed the predicted outcome and the model’s confidence in the away side.