The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance for Folgore, 26% for a draw and 24% for Libertas. The expected total is 2.9 goals, but the most likely total number of goals is 2, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.3% probability. Libertas, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.86 goals scored and 3.71 conceded, while Folgore, on the road against a weaker side, averages 2.5 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.0%), Under 6.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.1%), Under 5.5 (92.8%), Away +2 handicap (90.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (89.2%) and Under 4.5 (83.5%). Libertas has been coming off a draw, while Folgore is coming off a defeat.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Libertas win
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Folgore win
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Libertas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.13
1.21
2.36
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
3.33
0.86
3.71
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.67
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-26pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
1.17
2.27
1.20
2.13
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
1.67
1.33
1.67
1.00
1.67
vs Similar (14)
1.86
1.29
1.43
1.43
2.29
1.14
vs Weaker (10)
3.30
0.70
4.00
0.60
2.60
0.80
Clean sheet %
33% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
78.4%
Under 1.5
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
53.6%
Under 2.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
31.3%
Under 3.5
68.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
56.4%
No
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.9%
0-2
8.5%
0-0
7.1%
2-1
6.5%
1-0
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
Libertas goals ↓
Folgore goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.1%
8.9%
8.5%
4.8%
2.0%
1
5.6%
13%
9.6%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.8%
6.5%
5.4%
3.1%
1.3%
3
1.4%
2.4%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Libertas goals (down), columns = Folgore goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.00
Murata
1.75
Virtus
1.75
San Giovanni
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.50
Tre Penne
1.25
Cailungo
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Fiorentino
0.50
Folgore
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Domagnano
0.50
Libertas
0.50
Libertas and Folgore are level in average points per game (both 0.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Tre Fiori
1.86
Tre Penne
1.50
Virtus
1.50
Juvenes / Dogana
1.33
Murata
1.25
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Fiorentino
1.00
Domagnano
1.00
Cosmos
0.75
Libertas
0.75
Faetano
0.50
Pennarossa
0.50
Folgore
0.00
Libertas is 0.75 goals better than Folgore in terms of goals scored per game (0.75 vs 0.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Folgore
0.50
Virtus
0.50
Tre Fiori
0.71
Juvenes / Dogana
0.83
Tre Penne
1.00
San Giovanni
1.00
Cailungo
1.00
Murata
1.25
Faetano
1.50
Pennarossa
2.00
Libertas
2.00
Cosmos
2.25
Fiorentino
2.50
Domagnano
2.50
Libertas is 1.50 goals worse than Folgore in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Libertas or Draw
50.9%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
49%
covers Libertas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas or Folgore
73.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
49%
covers Libertas + Folgore
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Folgore
75.5%
Avg Implied -
24%
26%
49%
covers Draw + Folgore
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Libertas over/under 0.5
Over
67.8%
Under
32.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 3.5
Over
2.8%
Under
97.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 0.5
Over
81.5%
Under
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5
Over
50.3%
Under
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5
Over
23.9%
Under
76.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 3.5
Over
9.1%
Under
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Libertas, so a minus line means Libertas give that many goals of a start and Folgore receive them. At -1, Libertas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Libertas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Libertas)
Libertas -2
3.0%
Draw -2
6.9%
Folgore +2
90.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Libertas)
Libertas -1
10.0%
Draw -1
14.5%
Folgore +1
75.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Libertas)
Libertas +1
50.9%
Draw +1
22.1%
Folgore -1
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Libertas)
Libertas +2
73.0%
Draw +2
15.3%
Folgore -2
11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Libertas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.36
0.86
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
1.43
0.38
1.88
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.63
1.13
0.60
0.80
0.67
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.71
0.86
0.57
0.86
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.30
2.20
0.40
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
53% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Libertas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.86
1.50
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
2.29
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Folgore) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Folgore
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.53
1.13
0.60
1.33
0.47
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.67
1.33
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.43
0.86
0.57
1.43
0.29
vs Weaker (10)
1.70
0.40
1.80
0.20
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Folgore over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Libertas and Folgore have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Libertas and Folgore have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Libertas and Folgore have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Libertas and Folgore have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Juvenes / Dogana
Tre Fiori
Fiorentino
Tre Penne
Domagnano
Cosmos
La Fiorita
Virtus
San Giovanni
Cailungo
San Marino Academy
Pennarossa
Faetano
Murata