The model favours an away win, with a 47% chance of Juvenes / Dogana triumphing, 28% for a draw and 25% for Libertas. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, with the most likely total being two goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw, carrying a 13.5% probability. In recent form, Libertas, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened opponent, averages 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded, while Juvenes / Dogana, on the road, averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 99.5%, Over 19.5 fouls at 99.0%, Under 6.5 goals at 98.4%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.9%, Over 21.5 fouls at 97.3%, Under 5.5 goals at 95.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 93.8%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 93.3%. These picks reflect the anticipated low-scoring, tightly contested nature of the encounter.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Libertas win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana win
47.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Libertas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
2.13
1.21
2.36
0.88
1.94
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
3.33
0.86
3.71
0.75
3.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.92
1.67
1.00
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.20
1.38
1.44
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
1.42
0.40
1.80
0.57
1.14
vs Similar (13)
1.92
1.31
2.12
1.50
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
46.8%
Under 2.5
53.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.5%
No
48.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
10.6%
1-2
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
0-2
9.0%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.3%
2-2
4.8%
Libertas goals ↓
Juvenes / Dogana goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
11%
9.0%
4.5%
1.7%
1
6.9%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
4.2%
6.3%
4.8%
2.4%
0.9%
3
1.4%
2.2%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Libertas goals (down), columns = Juvenes / Dogana goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Tre Fiori
2.43
Virtus
2.34
Tre Penne
2.17
La Fiorita
1.97
Folgore
1.88
Domagnano
1.57
Fiorentino
1.53
Cosmos
1.42
Juvenes / Dogana
1.18
Libertas
1.16
San Giovanni
1.03
Pennarossa
1.03
Faetano
0.73
San Marino Academy
0.53
Cailungo
0.37
Murata
0.23
Libertas is 0.02 points worse than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average points per game (1.16 vs 1.18).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Virtus
2.37
Folgore
2.16
Tre Penne
2.14
Tre Fiori
2.10
La Fiorita
2.00
Domagnano
1.89
Fiorentino
1.25
Juvenes / Dogana
1.12
Libertas
1.06
Cosmos
1.00
Pennarossa
0.94
San Giovanni
0.80
San Marino Academy
0.77
Cailungo
0.77
Faetano
0.73
Murata
0.67
Libertas is 0.06 goals worse than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals scored per game (1.06 vs 1.12).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Tre Fiori
0.43
Tre Penne
0.60
Virtus
0.69
Cosmos
0.70
La Fiorita
0.89
Folgore
1.12
Juvenes / Dogana
1.24
Domagnano
1.26
Fiorentino
1.41
San Giovanni
1.43
Pennarossa
1.81
Faetano
1.83
San Marino Academy
2.00
Libertas
2.06
Cailungo
2.37
Murata
2.77
Libertas is 0.82 goals worse than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of goals conceded per game (2.06 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Tre Fiori
64%
Tre Penne
60%
San Giovanni
53%
San Marino Academy
51%
Libertas
49%
Juvenes / Dogana
47%
Fiorentino
40%
Cosmos
36%
Libertas is 2.0 percentage points better than Juvenes / Dogana in terms of average possession (49% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Libertas
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Juvenes / Dogana
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Libertas
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.0
12.0
-
0.1
0.1
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
12.0
12.0
-
0.1
0.2
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
100%
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
0%
0%
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
4.0
-
4.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
32.0
-
32.0
vs Stronger (20)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
4.0
-
4.0
0.2
0.0
0.6
32.0
-
32.0
vs Weaker (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
0%
-
0%
2%
0%
4%
100%
-
100%
% under line
100%
-
100%
98%
100%
96%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Libertas
12.0
San Marino Academy
12.0
Fiorentino
10.0
Cosmos
8.7
Tre Penne
7.8
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Fiori
7.7
Folgore
5.0
Cailungo
5.0
San Giovanni
4.0
Juvenes / Dogana
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
5.3
San Giovanni
5.0
Juvenes / Dogana
5.0
Cosmos
4.7
La Fiorita
4.5
Fiorentino
4.0
Tre Penne
3.6
Libertas
3.0
San Marino Academy
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fiorentino
34.0
San Giovanni
32.0
Juvenes / Dogana
32.0
Cosmos
30.0
Tre Penne
28.5
Tre Fiori
28.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
22.6%
Under 9.5
77.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
61.8%
Under 3.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
97.3%
Under 21.5
2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Libertas or Draw
52.8%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Libertas + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Libertas or Juvenes / Dogana
71.8%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Libertas + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Juvenes / Dogana
75.4%
Avg Implied -
25%
28%
47%
covers Draw + Juvenes / Dogana
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Libertas over/under 0.5
Over
64.4%
Under
35.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5
Over
27.6%
Under
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 3.5
Over
2.1%
Under
97.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5
Over
78.0%
Under
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5
Over
44.7%
Under
55.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 3.5
Over
6.8%
Under
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Libertas, so a minus line means Libertas give that many goals of a start and Juvenes / Dogana receive them. At -1, Libertas must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Libertas win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Libertas)
Libertas -2
2.7%
Draw -2
6.8%
Juvenes / Dogana +2
90.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Libertas)
Libertas -1
9.5%
Draw -1
15.1%
Juvenes / Dogana +1
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Libertas)
Libertas +1
52.8%
Draw +1
22.7%
Juvenes / Dogana -1
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Libertas)
Libertas +2
75.5%
Draw +2
14.7%
Juvenes / Dogana -2
9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Libertas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.00
0.36
0.86
0.56
1.12
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
1.43
0.38
1.88
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.31
0.33
0.33
0.71
0.29
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.62
0.50
0.64
0.29
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.67
0.40
0.80
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.31
0.88
0.50
1.20
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.40
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
69.4%
Under 0.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.3%
Under 1.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
12.0%
Under 2.5
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.8%
Under
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.1%
Under
91.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 HT
Over
48.3%
Under
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.7%
Under
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.6%
Under
96.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Libertas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.13
0.86
1.50
0.31
0.81
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
1.67
0.43
2.29
0.38
1.12
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.62
1.33
0.67
0.14
0.57
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Juvenes / Dogana) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Juvenes / Dogana
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.80
0.75
0.94
0.36
0.64
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
0.75
0.00
1.00
0.29
0.57
vs Similar (13)
0.92
1.00
1.25
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
0.40
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
78.1%
Under 0.5
21.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
42.3%
Under 1.5
57.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.2%
Under 2.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2H
Over
44.1%
Under
55.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2H
Over
12.7%
Under
87.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 0.5 2H
Over
61.3%
Under
38.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 1.5 2H
Over
21.3%
Under
78.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Juvenes / Dogana over/under 2.5 2H
Over
7.5%
Under
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
95.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 23.5 fouls
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 25.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 9.5 corners
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Libertas and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Libertas and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Libertas and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Libertas and Juvenes / Dogana have a similar defence value (both €0m).
San-Marino: Campionato 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →