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Libertas vs Pennarossa Result & Analysis

Date: 21/04/2024
Time: 13:00
Final 0-2
Libertas
Libertas
Vs
61%
22%
17%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Libertas win✗ Miss
61.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa win✓ Hit
16.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LibertasLibertas

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D02L11D10W12L34L13L14L12L10WA·SAN10/02H·DOM17/02A·FOL20/02A·CAI24/02A·SAN03/03A·FIO09/03H·TRE13/03A·JUV16/03H·TRE07/04A·COS13/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.870.932.071.271.67
vs Stronger (13)0.922.080.862.431.001.67
vs Similar (15)1.201.870.861.861.501.88
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %10% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 – goals for & against
90-913L05L00D03L03L02L26L43W09L24LA·JUV11/02H·TRE17/02A·DOM20/02H·MUR24/02A·LA 02/03H·CAI09/03A·COS12/03H·FAE17/03A·SAN06/04H·FOL13/04
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
3.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.573.300.753.000.363.64
vs Stronger (19)0.633.320.703.200.563.44
vs Similar (11)0.453.270.832.670.004.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-22pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%23%5%012%123%222%317%411%59%6+
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.8%
Under 2.5
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.4%
Under 3.5
62.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.7%
No
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.8%
1-0
8.5%
3-1
6.9%
3-0
6.8%
0-0
5.5%
2-2
5.0%
Libertas goals ↓
Pennarossa goals →
01234
05.5%3.6%2.3%0.8%0.2%
18.5%11%4.8%1.6%0.4%
29.8%9.9%5.0%1.7%0.4%
36.8%6.9%3.5%1.2%0.3%
43.5%3.6%1.8%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Libertas goals (down), columns = Pennarossa goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Virtus
2.63
La Fiorita
2.49
Tre Penne
1.97
Murata
1.91
Cosmos
1.86
Tre Fiori
1.81
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
San Giovanni
1.50
Folgore
1.30
Fiorentino
1.23
Domagnano
1.13
Faetano
0.87
Libertas
0.77
San Marino Academy
0.73
Cailungo
0.47
Pennarossa
0.27
Libertas is 0.50 points better than Pennarossa in terms of average points per game (0.77 vs 0.27).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Cosmos
2.37
Tre Penne
2.37
La Fiorita
2.17
Virtus
2.03
Tre Fiori
1.78
San Giovanni
1.78
Murata
1.77
Juvenes / Dogana
1.55
Faetano
1.47
Folgore
1.39
Fiorentino
1.29
San Marino Academy
1.07
Libertas
1.07
Domagnano
1.06
Pennarossa
0.60
Cailungo
0.50
Libertas is 0.47 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals scored per game (1.07 vs 0.60).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
La Fiorita
0.60
Virtus
0.67
Murata
0.74
Cosmos
0.94
Tre Fiori
1.00
Tre Penne
1.03
Folgore
1.15
San Giovanni
1.44
Domagnano
1.45
Juvenes / Dogana
1.64
Fiorentino
1.84
Libertas
1.87
San Marino Academy
2.47
Cailungo
2.57
Faetano
2.63
Pennarossa
3.20
Libertas is 1.33 goals better than Pennarossa in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 3.20).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

LibertasLibertas

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

PennarossaPennarossa

ðŸšĐ Corners

No recent corners data for this league.

ðŸŸĻ Cards

No recent cards data for this league.

⚠ïļ Fouls

No recent fouls data for this league.

LibertasLibertas

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (23)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (24)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (3)---0.00.00.0---
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)---0.00.00.0---
vs Stronger (32)---0.00.00.0---
vs Similar (18)---0.00.00.0---
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line---0%0%0%---
% under line---100%100%100%---
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Cosmos
10.0
Tre Fiori
9.0
La Fiorita
7.8
Tre Penne
7.2

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Tre Fiori
7.2
La Fiorita
4.5
Cosmos
4.5
Tre Penne
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Tre Penne
23.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LibertasLibertas

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D00D10W00D12L00D12L10W10WA·SAN10/02H·DOM17/02A·FOL20/02A·CAI24/02A·SAN03/03A·FIO09/03H·TRE13/03A·JUV16/03H·TRE07/04A·COS13/04
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.800.470.870.600.73
vs Stronger (13)0.540.850.711.000.330.67
vs Similar (15)0.530.800.290.710.750.88
vs Weaker (2)0.500.500.001.001.000.00
Clean sheet %43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D01L00D00D01L02L04L12L03L11DA·JUV11/02H·TRE17/02A·DOM20/02H·MUR24/02A·LA 02/03H·CAI09/03A·COS12/03H·FAE17/03A·SAN06/04H·FOL13/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.630.381.620.211.64
vs Stronger (19)0.421.630.501.500.331.78
vs Similar (11)0.091.640.171.830.001.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LibertasLibertas

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W02L11D00D12L22D13L02L02L00DA·SAN10/02H·DOM17/02A·FOL20/02A·CAI24/02A·SAN03/03A·FIO09/03H·TRE13/03A·JUV16/03H·TRE07/04A·COS13/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.571.070.471.200.670.93
vs Stronger (13)0.381.230.141.430.671.00
vs Similar (15)0.671.070.571.140.751.00
vs Weaker (2)1.000.002.000.000.000.00
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Pennarossa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PennarossaPennarossa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
60-602L04L00D03L02L00D22D31W06L13LA·JUV11/02H·TRE17/02A·DOM20/02H·MUR24/02A·LA 02/03H·CAI09/03A·COS12/03H·FAE17/03A·SAN06/04H·FOL13/04
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.271.670.381.380.142.00
vs Stronger (19)0.211.680.201.700.221.67
vs Similar (11)0.361.640.670.830.002.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Libertas) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Libertas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Libertas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pennarossa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.582.4%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (20)
€1m
LF (19)
€1m
FOL (19)
€1m
VIR (15)
€1m
DOM (19)
€1m
TP (14)
€1m
J/D (20)
€1m
COS (12)
€0m
CAI (18)
€0m
PEN (11)
€0m
SG (11)
€0m
FIO (9)
€0m
SMA (13)
€0m
LIB (9)
€0m
FAE (10)
€0m
MUR (7)
€0m
Libertas and Pennarossa have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (5)
€1m
LF (5)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
VIR (5)
€0m
J/D (7)
€0m
DOM (6)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (3)
€0m
TP (5)
€0m
CAI (5)
€0m
COS (2)
€0m
FIO (2)
€0m
SMA (5)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
MUR (1)
€0m
LIB (0)
€0m
Libertas and Pennarossa have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LF (7)
€0m
TP (6)
€0m
TF (6)
€0m
VIR (4)
€0m
FOL (5)
€0m
DOM (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
J/D (5)
€0m
FIO (3)
€0m
LIB (4)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
COS (4)
€0m
CAI (4)
€0m
MUR (6)
€0m
FAE (2)
€0m
Libertas and Pennarossa have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TF (9)
€1m
FOL (9)
€0m
LF (7)
€0m
DOM (8)
€0m
J/D (8)
€0m
VIR (6)
€0m
COS (6)
€0m
CAI (9)
€0m
FAE (6)
€0m
LIB (5)
€0m
FIO (4)
€0m
TP (3)
€0m
SMA (4)
€0m
PEN (4)
€0m
SG (4)
€0m
MUR (0)
€0m
Libertas and Pennarossa have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
2
LIB wins
1
Draws
0
PEN wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Libertas vs Pennarossa · H/A from LIB
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/24APennarossa Vs LIB1-4
11/04/23APennarossa Vs LIB0-7
17/12/22HLIB Vs Pennarossa3-3

LibertasLibertas

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24ACosmos Vs LIB0-1
07/04/24HLIB Vs Tre Fiori1-2
16/03/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs LIB4-1
13/03/24HLIB Vs Tre Penne1-3
09/03/24AFiorentino Vs LIB4-3
03/03/24ASan Giovanni Vs LIB2-1
24/02/24ACailungo Vs LIB0-1
20/02/24AFolgore Vs LIB1-1
17/02/24HLIB Vs Domagnano0-2
10/02/24ASan Marino Academy Vs LIB1-1

PennarossaPennarossa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
13/04/24HPEN Vs Folgore2-4
06/04/24ASan Giovanni Vs PEN9-0
17/03/24HPEN Vs Faetano4-3
12/03/24ACosmos Vs PEN6-2
09/03/24HPEN Vs Cailungo0-2
02/03/24ALa Fiorita Vs PEN3-0
24/02/24HPEN Vs Murata0-3
20/02/24ADomagnano Vs PEN0-0
17/02/24HPEN Vs Tre Penne0-5
11/02/24AJuvenes / Dogana Vs PEN3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Libertas
Libertas
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLW1.18
HomeLLLLL1.04
AwayWLLLW1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%24%40%
AVG goals2.962.723.20
Over 1.5 %78%76%80%
Over 2.5 %62%60%64%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.381.121.64
Conceded1.581.601.56
BTTS62%60%64%
Clean Sheet18%20%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Pennarossa
Pennarossa
San-Marino: Campionato
Recent: 1 Wins / 1 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL0.40
HomeLLLWL0.28
AwayLDLLL0.52
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %10%8%12%
AVG goals3.703.843.56
Over 1.5 %86%92%80%
Over 2.5 %70%80%60%
Over 3.5 %46%48%44%
Scored0.800.840.76
Conceded2.903.002.80
BTTS44%52%36%
Clean Sheet10%4%16%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1La FioritaLa Fiorita3587
80%
2.5
7621+55
2.8
74%
57%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.20.6
-
2VirtusVirtus3079
87%
2.6
6120+41
2.7
70%
57%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.00.7
-
3Tre PenneTre Penne3569
60%
2.0
8336+47
3.4
89%
69%
46%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.0
-
4MurataMurata3567
60%
1.9
6226+36
2.5
63%
49%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.80.7
-
5CosmosCosmos3565
54%
1.9
8333+50
3.3
77%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.40.9
-
6Tre FioriTre Fiori3258
53%
1.8
5732+25
2.8
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.81.0
-
7Juvenes / DoganaJuvenes / Dogana3351
48%
1.5
5154-3
3.2
76%
70%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.6
-
8San GiovanniSan Giovanni3248
47%
1.5
5746+11
3.2
88%
72%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
9FolgoreFolgore3343
36%
1.3
4638+8
2.5
70%
42%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.2
-
10FiorentinoFiorentino3138
35%
1.2
4057-17
3.1
81%
58%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.8
-
11DomagnanoDomagnano3135
29%
1.1
3345-12
2.5
68%
39%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.11.5
-
12FaetanoFaetano3026
27%
0.9
4479-35
4.1
90%
77%
60%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.6
-
13LibertasLibertas3023
20%
0.8
3256-24
2.9
80%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
14San Marino AcademySan Marino Academy3022
20%
0.7
3274-42
3.5
93%
73%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.5
-
15CailungoCailungo3014
13%
0.5
1577-62
3.1
80%
63%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
16PennarossaPennarossa308
7%
0.3
1896-78
3.8
83%
73%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.63.2
-
San-Marino: Campionato 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full San-Marino: Campionato stats & trends →

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