PythiaFootballBETA
This Ligue 1 match between Lille and Auxerre is likely to be a closely contested affair, with Lille coming off a defeat and Auxerre on a 3-game winning run. However, the model predicts a home win, with Lille holding a 58% chance of victory. The draw is a 25% possibility, while Auxerre's chances of winning stand at 17%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely outcome being a 2-goal match. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 12.1% probability. At home, Lille scores an average of 0.86 goals and concedes 0.86 goals against weaker opponents. Away from home, Auxerre scores 0.83 goals and concedes 1.83 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5 goals, Over 21.5 fouls, and Under 3.5 goals, each with a high probability of occurrence. Lille's home win percentage stands at 58%, while the draw percentage is 25% and Auxerre's away win percentage is 17%.
In a major upset, Auxerre secured a 0-2 away win over Lille, extending their run of victories to four games. The win marks a reversal for the hosts, who had been coming off a defeat. This result is a surprise given that Lille were the pre-match favourite, with a 58% probability of winning.
The model correctly identified the underdog, suggesting Lille as its selection. However, its call was wrong, as Lille failed to come through. The model's selection was not the only one to hit, as the over 1.5 goals, over 21.5 fouls, and under 3.5 cards all proved correct, with respective probabilities of 75.3%, 74.8%, and 72.5%.
Lille| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.00 | 1.29 | 0.93 | 1.12 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (17) | 1.18 | 1.06 | 1.56 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.12 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 1.50 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.83 | 0.83 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Auxerre| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.37 | 1.00 | 1.07 | 0.87 | 1.67 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.69 | 1.62 | 0.50 | 1.50 | 0.88 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (14) | 1.21 | 1.07 | 1.57 | 0.57 | 0.86 | 1.57 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
| Auxerre goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.2% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 11% | 12% | 4.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 11% | 9.7% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 6.6% | 5.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
LilleAuxerreLille| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 23.7 | 23.3 | 24.1 |
| vs Stronger (5) | 10.2 | 10.5 | 10.0 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 27.3 |
| vs Similar (27) | 9.0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 22.7 | 22.9 | 22.3 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 10.4 | 12.0 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 4.8 | 24.3 | 23.1 | 25.3 |
| % over line | 48% | 52% | 44% | 60% | 48% | 72% | 60% | 56% | 64% |
| % under line | 52% | 48% | 56% | 40% | 52% | 28% | 40% | 44% | 36% |
Auxerre| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.8 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 25.7 | 25.6 | 25.8 |
| vs Stronger (24) | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 25.5 | 25.8 | 25.2 |
| vs Similar (25) | 9.6 | 9.2 | 10.1 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 25.8 | 25.3 | 26.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 16.0 | 16.0 | - | 4.0 | 4.0 | - | 28.0 | 28.0 | - |
| % over line | 44% | 36% | 52% | 64% | 72% | 56% | 72% | 68% | 76% |
| % under line | 56% | 64% | 48% | 36% | 28% | 44% | 28% | 32% | 24% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 71.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 | A | 3-4 | |
| 20/04/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 10/01/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/04/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 07/08/22 | H | 4-1 |
Lille| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
Auxerre| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 13/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Paris FC | 70 | 123 | 51% | 1.8 | 124 | 82 | +42 | 2.9 | 76% | 60% | 31% | 9.6 | 49% | 3.2 | 33% | 19.8 | 37% | 159 | 45 | 50 | 63 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 76 | 71% | 2.2 | 74 | 29 | +45 | 3.0 | 76% | 62% | 32% | 9.5 | 41% | 2.9 | 26% | 18.6 | 26% | 1377 | 540 | 430 | 407 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 3 |  Lens | 36 | 70 | 61% | 1.9 | 66 | 39 | +27 | 2.9 | 83% | 61% | 28% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.4 | 66% | 24.1 | 56% | 260 | 52 | 76 | 132 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 4 |  Lyon | 36 | 63 | 53% | 1.8 | 57 | 44 | +13 | 2.8 | 67% | 58% | 33% | 11.0 | 53% | 4.9 | 72% | 25.9 | 75% | 294 | 138 | 77 | 79 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 |  Marseille | 36 | 62 | 53% | 1.7 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 3.2 | 72% | 61% | 42% | 8.7 | 36% | 4.4 | 71% | 23.8 | 58% | 406 | 200 | 107 | 99 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57% |
| 6 | Lille | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 2.6 | 67% | 39% | 19% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.4 | 64% | 24.1 | 67% | 273 | 130 | 76 | 68 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 7 |  Rennes | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 62 | 56 | +6 | 3.3 | 83% | 72% | 53% | 10.8 | 64% | 4.2 | 65% | 24.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 54% |
| 8 |  Monaco | 36 | 60 | 50% | 1.7 | 64 | 55 | +9 | 3.3 | 72% | 64% | 53% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.2 | 64% | 23.6 | 64% | 447 | 202 | 109 | 137 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 62 | 52 | +10 | 3.2 | 78% | 67% | 36% | 8.8 | 44% | 3.7 | 53% | 23.9 | 72% | 383 | 142 | 109 | 132 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 10 |  Lorient | 36 | 47 | 31% | 1.3 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 2.9 | 89% | 44% | 36% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.0 | 51% | 22.5 | 47% | 128 | 46 | 33 | 48 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 35 | 44 | 34% | 1.3 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 3.0 | 69% | 57% | 37% | 9.6 | 54% | 4.3 | 66% | 25.1 | 77% | 182 | 32 | 41 | 109 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 12 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 2.8 | 81% | 50% | 28% | 9.8 | 47% | 3.6 | 51% | 24.0 | 61% | 91 | 29 | 22 | 39 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 13 |  Angers | 36 | 36 | 25% | 1.0 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 2.2 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 8.9 | 42% | 3.1 | 42% | 21.8 | 50% | 135 | 86 | 14 | 35 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 14 |  Nice | 38 | 36 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 42% | 10.7 | 66% | 3.9 | 55% | 23.3 | 50% | 198 | 85 | 40 | 73 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 36 | 35 | 19% | 1.0 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 2.2 | 61% | 33% | 17% | 9.0 | 44% | 4.2 | 61% | 27.4 | 92% | 75 | 16 | 25 | 34 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 16 | Auxerre | 36 | 34 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 2.2 | 61% | 42% | 25% | 9.5 | 42% | 4.8 | 69% | 27.1 | 86% | 92 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 17 |  Nantes | 35 | 23 | 14% | 0.7 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 2.4 | 66% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 49% | 4.5 | 69% | 26.2 | 80% | 118 | 50 | 23 | 45 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 18 |  Metz | 36 | 17 | 8% | 0.5 | 34 | 82 | -48 | 3.2 | 75% | 64% | 42% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.4 | 50% | 22.5 | 58% | 80 | 37 | 21 | 22 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 49% |
| 19 |  Rodez | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 22 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 38% |
| 20 |  Saint Etienne | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 1.7 | 0% | 19.3 | 33% | 82 | 46 | 11 | 26 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 21 |  RED Star FC 93 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 63% |