Lille, fresh from a 1-0 win over Toulouse, will host Estac Troyes, who also come off a 2-1 victory against Lorient. The model’s edge is strongest on the under-goals market, with an almost 100% chance of Under 7.5 and a 99% chance of Under 6.5, reflecting the low-scoring nature of both sides. The predicted outcome is a home win, with Lille’s 44% chance of victory, a 30% draw probability, and a 26% chance for Troyes. The average goal expectation is 2.4, centering on a 2-goal total with a 28% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.1% probability. Lille’s home form against weaker opposition shows 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average, while Troyes’ away form is not detailed here. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%, edge 4%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%, edge 7%), Under 5.5 (96.7%, edge 5%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (96.3%, edge 3%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.1%, edge 11%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lille win
43.8%
Avg Implied 67.0% · @ 1.41
Edge
-23.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.46
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.43
Dafabet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Draw
30.0%
Avg Implied 20.4% · @ 4.63
Edge
+9.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.87
Marathonbet
4.85
Dafabet
4.80
Pinnacle
4.71
Unibet
4.60
Estac Troyes win
26.2%
Avg Implied 12.6% · @ 7.48
Edge
+13.6%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
8.40
Unibet
8.00
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
Betfair
7.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.00
0.86
1.21
1.38
0.81
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (15)
0.93
1.00
0.75
1.25
1.14
0.71
vs Weaker (13)
1.38
0.77
0.80
1.00
1.75
0.62
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
0.97
1.92
1.23
1.59
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.05
1.89
1.33
1.50
0.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.38
2.00
0.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
69.4%
@ 1.25-5.6%
Under 1.5
30.6%
@ 3.75+5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Under
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.85
10Bet
3.75
Pinnacle
3.74
Unibet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
41.8%
@ 1.81-10.7%
Under 2.5
58.2%
@ 2.00+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.88
Unibet
1.87
Pinnacle
1.82
Marathonbet
1.82
Bet365
1.80
Under
1xBet
2.07
Betano
2.05
Pinnacle
2.02
Marathonbet
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
21.1%
@ 3.04-9.9%
Under 3.5
78.9%
@ 1.37+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.25
Bet365
3.20
Pinnacle
3.05
Betano
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Both teams to score
Yes
48.1%
@ 2.02+1.9%
No
51.9%
@ 1.73-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.17
William Hil
2.05
Bet365
2.05
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
2.00
No
Betfair
1.80
Betano
1.78
William Hil
1.75
1xBet
1.74
10Bet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.1%@ 8.14+8.7%
1-0
11.6%@ 6.15+4.4%
0-0
10.8%@ 11.56+7.0%
2-0
8.8%@ 6.22+1.6%
2-1
8.7%@ 7.69+2.9%
0-1
8.2%@ 15.41+5.3%
1-2
6.4%@ 19.62+4.1%
0-2
4.7%@ 39.00+3.6%
Lille goals ↓
Estac Troyes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
8.2%
4.7%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.8%
8.7%
4.3%
1.4%
0.4%
3
4.0%
3.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.3%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lille goals (down), columns = Estac Troyes goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lille is 0.76 points better than Estac Troyes in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lille is 0.42 goals better than Estac Troyes in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lille is 0.76 goals better than Estac Troyes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lille
For 3.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
For 5.4 · Against 3.0 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.7
9.3
4.0
3.6
4.5
23.9
23.8
24.0
vs Stronger (3)
6.3
6.5
6.0
2.0
2.5
1.0
20.3
20.5
20.0
vs Similar (29)
9.3
9.1
9.5
4.2
3.8
4.7
24.2
24.5
23.8
vs Weaker (18)
10.2
11.4
9.3
4.1
3.5
4.5
24.2
23.6
24.6
% over line
43%
43%
42%
60%
50%
69%
64%
61%
67%
% under line
57%
57%
58%
40%
50%
31%
36%
39%
33%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.1
8.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
27.0
26.5
27.5
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
14.0
-
3.5
3.5
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (36)
7.9
7.2
8.6
4.1
4.2
3.9
26.6
26.3
26.8
vs Weaker (12)
9.5
9.5
9.5
2.8
2.2
3.3
29.0
27.7
31.0
% over line
40%
38%
43%
44%
36%
52%
87%
92%
83%
% under line
60%
62%
57%
56%
64%
48%
13%
8%
17%
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.9%
@ 1.87-4.3%
Under 9.5
55.1%
@ 1.81+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.87
Under
Unibet
1.81
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.3%
Under 3.5
46.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.8%
Under 21.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lille or Draw
73.8%
Avg Implied 87.0% · @ 1.09
Edge
-13.1%
44%
30%
26%
covers Lille + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
Lille or Estac Troyes
70.0%
Avg Implied 80.1% · @ 1.18
Edge
-10.1%
44%
30%
26%
covers Lille + Estac Troyes
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
Draw or Estac Troyes
56.2%
Avg Implied 33.0% · @ 2.88
Edge
+23.2%
44%
30%
26%
covers Draw + Estac Troyes
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.97
Unibet
2.95
1xBet
2.93
10Bet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lille over/under 0.5
Over
74.3%
@ 1.09-11.1%
Under
25.7%
@ 6.33+11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Under
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.35
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
5.80
Lille over/under 1.5
Over
39.3%
@ 1.55-21.0%
Under
60.7%
@ 2.36+21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Under
Pinnacle
2.41
Betfair
2.40
Marathonbet
2.39
1xBet
2.38
10Bet
2.38
Lille over/under 2.5
Over
15.6%
@ 2.73-18.6%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.42+18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.82
1xBet
2.77
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
Under
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
Lille over/under 3.5
Over
4.9%
@ 5.38-12.4%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.12+12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.55
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Unibet
5.40
Under
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5
Over
63.0%
@ 1.80+11.3%
Under
37.0%
@ 1.93-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.90
Pinnacle
1.83
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
Betano
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
1xBet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5
Over
26.2%
@ 5.09+7.9%
Under
73.8%
@ 1.15-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
1xBet
5.20
Betfair
5.20
10Bet
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5
Over
7.9%
@ 14.50+1.3%
Under
92.1%
@ 1.02-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Estac Troyes over/under 3.5
Over
1.9%
@ 51.00-98.1%
Under
98.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
51.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lille, so a minus line means Lille give that many goals of a start and Estac Troyes receive them. At -1, Lille must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lille win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lille)
Lille -2
7.8%
@ 3.87-15.4%
Draw -2
13.4%
@ 4.09-8.5%
Estac Troyes +2
78.7%
@ 1.64+23.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.85
Marathonbet
3.75
Unibet
3.75
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
10Bet
3.95
Unibet
3.80
Away
Marathonbet
1.68
Unibet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.57
Handicap -1 (Lille)
Lille -1
21.3%
@ 2.13-21.0%
Draw -1
22.6%
@ 3.40-3.9%
Estac Troyes +1
56.2%
@ 2.88+24.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Unibet
2.05
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Betfair
3.40
10Bet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.34
Unibet
3.30
Away
Marathonbet
2.97
Unibet
2.90
10Bet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Bet365
2.75
Handicap +1 (Lille)
Lille +1
73.8%
@ 1.08-9.1%
Draw +1
16.2%
@ 7.70+4.5%
Estac Troyes -1
10.0%
@ 16.48+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
9.50
Unibet
8.50
Bet365
8.50
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
19.00
10Bet
19.00
Unibet
18.00
Marathonbet
7.40
Handicap +2 (Lille)
Lille +2
90.0%
@ 1.01-4.2%
Draw +2
7.2%
@ 22.00+2.9%
Estac Troyes -2
2.8%
@ 66.00+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
23.00
Bet365
21.00
Away
Betfair
81.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.47
0.25
0.62
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.46
0.23
0.20
0.40
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.53
0.85
0.69
0.53
0.41
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.57
0.62
0.78
0.89
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.34+3.4%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.13-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.34
Under
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.17
1xBet
3.12
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
35.0%
@ 2.62-0.7%
Under 1.5
65.0%
@ 1.46+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
Betano
2.70
Unibet
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.67
Under
William Hil
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.0%
@ 6.28-0.9%
Under 2.5
86.0%
@ 1.10+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
6.50
William Hil
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.30
Under
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.7%
@ 1.55-12.3%
Under
52.3%
@ 2.33+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.62
Unibet
1.55
Pinnacle
1.55
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.50
Under
10Bet
2.40
1xBet
2.40
Pinnacle
2.37
Unibet
2.25
Betano
2.22
Lille over/under 1.5 HT
Over
17.8%
@ 3.74-6.9%
Under
82.2%
@ 1.23+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Marathonbet
3.80
Betano
3.75
10Bet
3.55
Under
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Lille over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.5%
@ 9.52-7.2%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.02+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
40.6%
@ 3.29+12.4%
Under
59.4%
@ 1.30-12.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
Unibet
3.50
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Marathonbet
3.20
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.28
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.4%
@ 10.00+3.0%
Under
87.6%
@ 1.03-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.4%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.57
0.71
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.62
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
0.60
0.60
1.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.43
1.08
0.54
1.06
0.35
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.10
0.43
1.11
0.44
1.08
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.4%
@ 1.21+2.4%
Under 0.5
20.6%
@ 4.06-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
Under
Marathonbet
4.20
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.20
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.2%
@ 2.02-0.2%
Under 1.5
53.8%
@ 1.75+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.06
Marathonbet
2.06
William Hil
2.05
Unibet
2.04
10Bet
2.00
Under
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.6%
@ 4.21-2.6%
Under 2.5
80.4%
@ 1.20+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.7%
@ 1.39-7.4%
Under
40.3%
@ 2.83+7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.39
Betano
1.39
Under
Betano
2.87
1xBet
2.80
Lille over/under 1.5 2H
Over
26.9%
@ 2.75-6.8%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.40+6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
1xBet
2.75
Betano
2.70
Under
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Lille over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.9%
@ 6.28-10.9%
Under
96.1%
@ 1.09+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.10
Betano
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.05
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.8%
@ 2.58+14.7%
Under
49.2%
@ 1.46-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.50
Under
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.3%
@ 9.03+5.0%
Under
84.7%
@ 1.04-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.7%
@ 14.00-3.1%
Under
96.3%
@ 1.01+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.7%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.5%
1.02
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
-
+7.2%
Under 5.5
96.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Unibet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+5.5%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
96.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.1%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.1%
1.09
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+10.9%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.1%
1.12
10Bet
1.15
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.12
+12.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
92.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-1.3%
Under 4.5
91.0%
1.12
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+7.9%
Home +2 handicap
90.0%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-4.2%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
-3.0%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.0%
1.10
Betano
1.12
10Bet
1.11
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.09
+0.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.7%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
-
-5.0%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.4%
1.42
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Betano
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.40
+18.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
82.2%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
+6.9%
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.20
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+2.6%
Over 19.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.4%
1.21
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.22
Betano
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
1xBet
1.21
+2.4%
Under 3.5
78.9%
1.37
Betano
1.42
Pinnacle
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+9.9%
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
1.32
Unibet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+7.7%
Home over 0.5 goals
74.3%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
-11.1%
Home or Draw
73.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
William Hil
1.10
-13.1%
Home +1 handicap
73.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-9.1%
Away under 1.5 goals
73.8%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
Betfair
1.13
-7.9%
Over 2.5 cards
73.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.34
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.34
+3.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.1%
1.40
Betano
1.42
1xBet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
-
+6.8%
Home or Away
70.0%
1.18
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
Unibet
1.18
-10.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lille
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Giroud33%
H. Haraldsson33%
Tiago Santos33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
R. Perraud67%
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Bentaleb33%
Olivier Giroud33%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
H. Haraldsson0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Estac Troyes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawfik Bentayeb48%
Martin Adeline32%
Renaud Ripart29%
Kandet Diawara23%
Jaures Assoumou21%
Mounaim El Idrissy14%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Antoine Mille9%
Mathys Detourbet9%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Ismaël Boura4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Lucas Maronnier0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Diakité33%
Nicolas Lemaitre30%
Adrien Monfray26%
Hugo Gambor26%
Lucas Maronnier22%
Mounaim El Idrissy21%
Paolo Gozzi20%
Xavier Chavalerin20%
Antoine Mille18%
Jaures Assoumou16%
Martin Adeline15%
Ismaël Boura14%
Sankhoun Diawara13%
Anis Ouzenadji13%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Mathys Detourbet11%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Hillel Konaté8%
Kandet Diawara8%
Alexandre Phliponeau7%
Yvann Titi5%
Merwan Ifnaoui3%
Roman Murcy0%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede0%
Noah Donkor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Adeline29%
Noah Donkor20%
Yvann Titi18%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Antoine Mille12%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Mouhamed Diop9%
Kandet Diawara8%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Mounaim El Idrissy7%
Ismaël Boura7%
Sankhoun Diawara7%
Hugo Gambor5%
Jaures Assoumou5%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Renaud Ripart0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Roman Murcy0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawfik Bentayeb42%
Jaures Assoumou32%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Kandet Diawara15%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Merwan Ifnaoui7%
Martin Adeline6%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Mounaim El Idrissy4%
Antoine Mille3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Anis Ouzenadji0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lille's squad is €276m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€312m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lille's attack is €126m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€133m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lille's midfield is €91m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€102m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lille's defence is €59m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€76m vs €17m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre