This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.00
1.56
1.21
1.36
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
4.00
0.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.89
1.17
1.83
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (20)
1.20
1.15
1.00
1.11
1.36
1.18
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
76.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.5%
Under 2.5
49.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.4%
Under 3.5
71.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.9%
No
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
9.3%
1-0
9.3%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
8.0%
1-2
6.9%
0-1 ✓
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
Lille goals ↓
Monaco goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.0%
6.6%
4.5%
1.7%
0.5%
1
9.3%
13%
6.9%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.3%
5.3%
2.0%
0.6%
3
4.2%
4.8%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
1.6%
1.8%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lille goals (down), columns = Monaco goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.39
Lille
1.97
Lyon
1.89
Saint Etienne
1.74
Marseille
1.61
Montpellier
1.55
Nice
1.47
Reims
1.45
Nimes
1.39
Rennes
1.37
Strasbourg
1.29
Nantes
1.26
Angers
1.21
Bordeaux
1.08
Amiens
1.00
Toulouse
1.00
Monaco
0.95
Dijon
0.89
Caen
0.87
Guingamp
0.71
Lille is 1.03 points better than Monaco in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 0.95).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.76
Lyon
1.84
Lille
1.79
Marseille
1.58
Saint Etienne
1.55
Strasbourg
1.53
Nimes
1.50
Rennes
1.45
Montpellier
1.39
Nantes
1.26
Angers
1.16
Reims
1.03
Monaco
1.00
Toulouse
0.92
Bordeaux
0.89
Amiens
0.82
Dijon
0.82
Nice
0.79
Caen
0.76
Guingamp
0.74
Lille is 0.79 goals better than Monaco in terms of goals scored per game (1.79 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lille
0.87
Nice
0.92
Paris Saint Germain
0.92
Saint Etienne
1.08
Bordeaux
1.11
Montpellier
1.11
Reims
1.11
Lyon
1.24
Nantes
1.26
Strasbourg
1.26
Angers
1.29
Amiens
1.37
Marseille
1.37
Rennes
1.37
Caen
1.42
Monaco
1.50
Toulouse
1.50
Nimes
1.53
Dijon
1.58
Guingamp
1.79
Lille is 0.63 goals better than Monaco in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lille
For 4.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.9 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Monaco
For 4.2 · Against 4.2 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.7 · Total 27.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
8.4
9.9
3.6
3.2
4.0
24.9
24.2
25.6
vs Stronger (3)
9.7
12.0
8.5
3.7
2.0
4.5
25.3
15.0
30.5
vs Similar (17)
9.4
8.2
11.1
3.1
3.0
3.3
23.6
23.8
23.3
vs Weaker (30)
8.9
8.2
9.6
3.9
3.4
4.2
25.7
25.2
26.1
% over line
36%
28%
44%
46%
36%
56%
78%
76%
80%
% under line
64%
72%
56%
54%
64%
44%
22%
24%
20%
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.9
9.3
4.1
4.4
3.8
27.4
27.6
27.2
vs Stronger (2)
10.5
15.0
6.0
2.0
0.0
4.0
20.5
25.0
16.0
vs Similar (16)
9.0
8.8
9.3
4.3
4.8
3.5
28.8
28.5
29.3
vs Weaker (32)
9.8
10.3
9.5
4.2
4.4
3.9
27.2
27.2
27.2
% over line
46%
58%
33%
58%
58%
58%
94%
100%
88%
% under line
54%
42%
67%
42%
42%
42%
6%
0%
12%
This opponent (Lille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Paris Saint Germain
10.9
Saint Etienne
10.4
Guingamp
10.4
Dijon
10.3
Lyon
10.1
Marseille
10.1
Reims
10.1
Nantes
10.0
Nice
10.0
Rennes
9.8
Monaco
9.6
Toulouse
9.5
Angers
9.5
Strasbourg
9.4
Amiens
9.4
Bordeaux
9.4
Nimes
9.3
Caen
9.3
Lille
9.1
Montpellier
8.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Nimes
4.6
Rennes
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Caen
4.2
Monaco
4.1
Nice
4.0
Marseille
4.0
Nantes
4.0
Strasbourg
3.9
Lyon
3.9
Bordeaux
3.9
Saint Etienne
3.7
Guingamp
3.7
Paris Saint Germain
3.6
Lille
3.6
Angers
3.5
Dijon
3.5
Montpellier
3.5
Amiens
3.0
Reims
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Reims
27.7
Toulouse
27.6
Monaco
27.4
Dijon
26.7
Amiens
26.6
Montpellier
26.6
Caen
26.5
Nimes
26.5
Bordeaux
26.4
Marseille
26.1
Nice
26.0
Rennes
25.9
Strasbourg
25.9
Guingamp
25.8
Nantes
25.6
Lyon
25.5
Saint Etienne
25.0
Lille
24.9
Paris Saint Germain
23.9
Angers
23.5
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
41.7%
Under 9.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
53.2%
Under 3.5
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
83.1%
Under 21.5
16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.30
0.87
0.27
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.20
0.83
0.17
0.50
0.25
vs Weaker (19)
0.84
0.37
0.89
0.33
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.50
0.69
0.29
0.64
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.44
1.00
0.50
0.83
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (20)
0.40
0.45
0.56
0.44
0.27
0.45
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.67
1.00
0.40
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (10)
0.90
0.60
1.33
0.50
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (19)
0.74
0.63
0.78
0.33
0.70
0.90
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Monaco) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Monaco
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.50
0.88
0.93
0.71
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.89
0.67
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (20)
0.80
0.70
0.44
0.67
1.09
0.73
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Monaco over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lille · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Hamza Igamane39%
Olivier Giroud23%
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson20%
Matías Fernández-Pardo17%
Marius Sivertsen Broholm14%
Ethan Mbappé14%
Benjamin André11%
Félix Correia8%
Nathan Ngoy8%
Romain Perraud7%
Gaëtan Perrin7%
Soriba Diaoune6%
Thomas Meunier6%
Nabil Bentaleb5%
Ngal'ayel Mukau5%
Osame Sahraoui4%
Aïssa Mandi2%
Chancel Mbemba0%
Berke Özer0%
Arnaud Bodart0%
Calvin Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
Tiago Santos0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Ayyoub Bouaddi0%
Maxima Goffi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Benjamin André30%
Nathan Ngoy29%
Aïssa Mandi22%
Ayyoub Bouaddi21%
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson20%
Hamza Igamane17%
Calvin Verdonk15%
Romain Perraud15%
Chancel Mbemba14%
Berke Özer14%
Gaëtan Perrin13%
Nabil Bentaleb11%
Matías Fernández-Pardo10%
Thomas Meunier9%
Félix Correia8%
Ngal'ayel Mukau7%
Olivier Giroud7%
Ethan Mbappé5%
Arnaud Bodart0%
Osame Sahraoui0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
Marius Sivertsen Broholm0%
Tiago Santos0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Soriba Diaoune0%
Maxima Goffi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Matías Fernández-Pardo12%
Soriba Diaoune12%
Hamza Igamane11%
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson11%
Félix Correia10%
Romain Perraud10%
Thomas Meunier9%
Benjamin André8%
Osame Sahraoui8%
Marius Sivertsen Broholm7%
Nabil Bentaleb5%
Nathan Ngoy5%
Chancel Mbemba5%
Ethan Mbappé5%
Calvin Verdonk4%
Tiago Santos4%
Ayyoub Bouaddi2%
Berke Özer2%
Olivier Giroud2%
Aïssa Mandi0%
Arnaud Bodart0%
Gaëtan Perrin0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
Ngal'ayel Mukau0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Maxima Goffi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Hamza Igamane44%
Matías Fernández-Pardo17%
Olivier Giroud11%
Alexsandro Ribeiro9%
Ethan Mbappé9%
Hakon Arnar Haraldsson9%
Tiago Santos7%
Gaëtan Perrin7%
Félix Correia6%
Soriba Diaoune6%
Benjamin André3%
Nathan Ngoy3%
Aïssa Mandi2%
Romain Perraud2%
Thomas Meunier0%
Chancel Mbemba0%
Nabil Bentaleb0%
Berke Özer0%
Arnaud Bodart0%
Calvin Verdonk0%
Osame Sahraoui0%
Marius Sivertsen Broholm0%
Ngal'ayel Mukau0%
Noah Edjouma0%
Ayyoub Bouaddi0%
Maxima Goffi0%
Monaco · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paris Brunner75%
Mika Biereth50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Eric Dier25%
Lamine Camara25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Lukáš Hrádecký25%
Denis Zakaria25%
Vanderson25%
Nazinho25%
Lamine Camara25%
Anis Soubeir25%
Eric Dier0%
Mika Biereth0%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo0%
Paris Brunner0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Nazinho50%
Aleksandr Golovin33%
Mamadou Coulibaly33%
Mathys Detourbet33%
Eric Dier25%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Lamine Camara0%
Paris Brunner0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Paris Brunner50%
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo25%
Aleksandr Golovin0%
Eric Dier0%
Lukáš Hrádecký0%
Denis Zakaria0%
Mika Biereth0%
Vanderson0%
Nazinho0%
Lamine Camara0%
Mamadou Coulibaly0%
Sadibou Sané0%
Mathys Detourbet0%
Anis Soubeir0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
MON (24)
€29m
GUI (20)
€11m
DIJ (20)
€5m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
Lille's squad is €14m less valuable than Monaco's (€312m vs €326m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
MON (9)
€11m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
Lille's attack is €15m less valuable than Monaco's (€133m vs €148m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
NIC (9)
€31m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
DIJ (6)
€2m
CAE (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
Lille's midfield is €18m more valuable than Monaco's (€102m vs €84m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
REI (12)
€21m
MON (10)
€12m
AMI (8)
€4m
GUI (8)
€3m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Lille's defence is €17m less valuable than Monaco's (€76m vs €93m).
France: Ligue 1 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Lyon
Saint Etienne
Marseille
Montpellier
Nice
Reims
Nimes
Rennes
Strasbourg
Nantes
Angers
Bordeaux
Amiens
Toulouse
Dijon
Caen
Guingamp