Paris Saint Germain are the clear favourites, with a 49% chance of victory, compared with 24% for Lille and 27% for a draw. The match is expected to see 2.8 goals on average, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 25%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.8% probability. Lille, on home turf, has been scoring 2.09 goals per game and conceding 0.91 against weaker opponents, while PSG, playing away, has maintained the same offensive and defensive averages against weaker teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.2%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.6% with a 2% edge), Under 6.5 (97.6% with a 3% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (97.5% with a 2% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.2% with a 3% edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.8% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (93.6% with a 3% edge), and Away under 2.5 2H goals (92.4% with a 4% edge).
Results analysis
The surprise came early: the pre-match favourite, Paris Saint Germain, fell short of the model’s prediction of an away win, which had a 49% chance. Lille and PSG finished level 2-2, a draw that matched the model’s 26% draw probability. The upset was compounded by the fact that the model’s favourite was wrong. Every suggested pick was a hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.2%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 97.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 97.5%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.8%, Under 5.5 at 93.6%, and Away under 2.5 2H goals at 92.4%. Lille’s recent form, a draw in their last match, and PSG’s similar draw, set the stage for a tightly contested encounter that defied expectations.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lille win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied 19.0% · @ 5.02
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.41
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
5.30
1xBet
5.28
Bet365
5.25
Draw✓ Hit
26.1%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.91
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.11
Marathonbet
4.05
Dafabet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
4.00
Paris Saint Germain win✗ Miss
49.5%
Avg Implied 56.7% · @ 1.68
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.72
Betano
1.72
10Bet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.68
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
0.79
1.07
1.31
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.94
0.78
1.11
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.42
0.83
0.80
1.00
1.86
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.07
2.38
1.19
1.93
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
2.00
1.33
2.67
1.67
1.33
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
2.21
1.00
2.31
1.08
2.09
0.91
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.1%
@ 1.23+2.8%
Under 1.5
20.9%
@ 3.97-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
10Bet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.6%
@ 1.77+0.8%
Under 2.5
45.4%
@ 2.06-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.80
Under
SBO
2.21
1xBet
2.11
10Bet
2.10
Pinnacle
2.07
Betano
2.05
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
32.3%
@ 2.89-0.3%
Under 3.5
67.7%
@ 1.40+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.92
Unibet
2.90
Under
Betano
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Pinnacle
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Betfair
1.40
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.2%
@ 1.74+3.5%
No
42.8%
@ 2.01-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.83
Superbet
1.80
Marathonbet
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
No
William Hil
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.05
Unibet
2.05
Bet365
2.00
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%@ 6.88+5.8%
1-2
9.6%@ 7.47+3.6%
0-1
8.6%@ 7.12+2.3%
0-2
8.4%@ 7.99+2.7%
0-0
6.8%@ 11.72+3.0%
2-1
6.5%@ 13.79+3.2%
2-2 ✓
5.5%@ 13.42+2.2%
1-3
5.5%@ 11.95+1.7%
Lille goals ↓
Paris Saint Germain goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.8%
8.6%
8.4%
4.8%
2.1%
1
5.4%
12%
9.6%
5.5%
2.4%
2
3.8%
6.5%
5.5%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.4%
2.5%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lille goals (down), columns = Paris Saint Germain goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lille is 0.44 points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 2.24).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lille is 0.65 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 2.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lille is 0.24 goals worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 0.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lille is 12.9 percentage points worse than Paris Saint Germain in terms of average possession (56% vs 69%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lille
For 4.5 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 11.8 · Total 21.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Paris Saint Germain
For 7.3 · Against 3.3 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 9.8 · Total 17.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
4.4
3.8
5.0
24.0
23.6
24.3
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
8.0
6.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
21.5
23.0
20.0
vs Similar (28)
9.5
9.5
9.5
4.5
3.8
5.4
23.8
23.8
23.8
vs Weaker (20)
10.2
11.6
9.1
4.4
3.9
4.8
24.4
23.4
25.2
% over line
48%
52%
44%
64%
52%
76%
64%
60%
68%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
36%
48%
24%
36%
40%
32%
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.5
9.2
3.0
2.9
3.0
19.1
19.8
18.5
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (8)
9.9
8.8
11.0
4.1
4.0
4.2
21.9
21.5
22.2
vs Weaker (42)
9.2
9.6
8.8
2.8
2.7
2.8
18.6
19.4
17.8
% over line
44%
52%
36%
34%
36%
32%
30%
28%
32%
% under line
56%
48%
64%
66%
64%
68%
70%
72%
68%
This opponent (Lille) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Havre
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.6
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.7%
@ 1.91-0.2%
Under 9.5
51.3%
@ 1.83+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.96
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.92
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.82
1xBet
1.82
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.4%
@ 2.27+4.4%
Under 3.5
54.6%
@ 1.58-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.50
Betano
2.40
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Under
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.57
Unibet
1.55
Betano
1.53
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
45.9%
@ 2.08+1.6%
Under 21.5
54.1%
@ 1.65-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.59
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lille or Draw✓ Hit
49.9%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.17
Edge
+6.5%
24%
26%
49%
covers Lille + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.27
Marathonbet
2.27
1xBet
2.26
SBO
2.21
Betano
2.20
Lille or Paris Saint Germain✗ Miss
73.6%
Avg Implied 76.2% · @ 1.24
Edge
-2.6%
24%
26%
49%
covers Lille + Paris Saint Germain
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Draw or Paris Saint Germain✓ Hit
76.5%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.17
Edge
-3.9%
24%
26%
49%
covers Draw + Paris Saint Germain
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lille over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.6%
@ 1.51+4.9%
Under
33.4%
@ 2.43-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
1.57
Pinnacle
1.55
Betano
1.52
Superbet
1.52
Marathonbet
1.52
Under
10Bet
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.49
Betano
2.42
Lille over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
30.0%
@ 3.51+3.3%
Under
70.0%
@ 1.27-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.78
1xBet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
BetVictor
3.60
Under
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
Lille over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 9.12-0.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
10.50
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
9.20
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Lille over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 23.17-1.6%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
29.00
Superbet
28.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
81.5%
@ 1.12-1.2%
Under
18.5%
@ 5.38+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
1xBet
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
50.4%
@ 1.69-5.0%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.10+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.71
10Bet
1.70
Betano
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
1xBet
2.13
Marathonbet
2.12
BetVictor
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.0%
@ 3.20-5.2%
Under
76.0%
@ 1.32+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.27
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Under
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Paris Saint Germain over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.2%
@ 6.74-4.6%
Under
90.8%
@ 1.08+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
6.75
1xBet
6.70
Unibet
6.50
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lille, so a minus line means Lille give that many goals of a start and Paris Saint Germain receive them. At -1, Lille must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lille win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lille)Actual: Paris Saint Germain
Lille -2
2.8%
@ 28.50-0.5%
Draw -2
6.6%
@ 13.00-0.6%
Paris Saint Germain +2
90.6%
@ 1.04+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
36.00
Superbet
30.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
19.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
14.00
Superbet
14.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Lille)Actual: Paris Saint Germain
Lille -1
9.4%
@ 10.12+0.6%
Draw -1
14.1%
@ 5.76-1.3%
Paris Saint Germain +1
76.5%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
Unibet
10.00
10Bet
9.50
Marathonbet
6.10
Draw
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
3.94
Away
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
Handicap +1 (Lille)Actual: Lille
Lille +1
49.9%
@ 2.15+7.9%
Draw +1
22.4%
@ 3.58-2.8%
Paris Saint Germain -1
27.7%
@ 2.76-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.27
Superbet
2.25
Unibet
2.12
Betfair
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Away
10Bet
2.85
Betfair
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.75
Marathonbet
2.74
Handicap +2 (Lille)Actual: Lille
Lille +2
72.3%
@ 1.40+7.9%
Draw +2
15.7%
@ 4.76-3.2%
Paris Saint Germain -2
12.0%
@ 5.38-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Draw
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
Superbet
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Away
Betfair
5.50
10Bet
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Superbet
5.25
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.41
0.33
0.56
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
0.50
0.25
0.20
0.40
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
1.06
0.69
0.79
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.83
0.50
1.33
1.00
0.33
0.00
vs Weaker (24)
0.96
0.58
1.00
0.62
0.91
0.55
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.4%
@ 1.34+1.3%
Under 0.5
28.6%
@ 3.14-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.5%
@ 2.57+0.1%
Under 1.5
63.5%
@ 1.47-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Betano
2.70
Marathonbet
2.67
1xBet
2.63
Unibet
2.60
Under
Superbet
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Bet365
1.50
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.48
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.8%
@ 6.25-1.1%
Under 2.5
86.2%
@ 1.10+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
7.00
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.45
1xBet
6.35
Under
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.1%
@ 2.60+2.2%
Under
61.9%
@ 1.45-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.79
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.62
Superbet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
10Bet
1.53
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Unibet
1.44
Lille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 9.76+0.2%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.02-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
9.60
Unibet
9.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Lille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 27.00-2.2%
Under
98.6%
@ 1.01+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
14.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
55.9%
@ 1.68+0.5%
Under
44.1%
@ 2.09-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
1xBet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.17
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.08
Unibet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 4.31-4.9%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.18+4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Under
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.2%
@ 11.00-4.3%
Under
95.8%
@ 1.02+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.81
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.56
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
0.92
0.58
0.60
0.60
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Paris Saint Germain) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Paris Saint Germain
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.31
0.50
1.14
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
1.33
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.25
0.42
1.31
0.46
1.18
0.36
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.5%
@ 1.20+2.3%
Under 0.5
19.5%
@ 4.29-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
1xBet
4.35
Superbet
4.35
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
48.4%
@ 1.95+0.3%
Under 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.81-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.01
William Hil
2.00
Betano
1.95
Under
Betano
1.83
Bet365
1.83
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.82
Superbet
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 3.97-3.5%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.22+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.20
William Hil
4.20
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
Unibet
3.90
Under
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.6%
@ 2.17+5.7%
Under
51.4%
@ 1.63-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.18
Superbet
2.17
Betano
2.12
Under
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Lille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
@ 6.81+0.6%
Under
85.8%
@ 1.07-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.70
1xBet
7.40
Superbet
7.00
Betano
6.20
10Bet
5.75
Under
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Lille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 18.50-2.4%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Paris Saint Germain over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
60.2%
@ 1.45-3.9%
Under
39.8%
@ 2.59+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Superbet
1.45
1xBet
1.44
Under
Betano
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Superbet
2.55
Paris Saint Germain over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
22.3%
@ 3.09-7.8%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.33+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.15
Marathonbet
3.14
10Bet
3.10
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Paris Saint Germain over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 7.70-4.4%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.05+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.10
Superbet
7.90
Betano
7.10
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.8%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
93.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
92.4%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.8%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
90.6%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
90.3%
1.02
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
90.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
1.10
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.2%
1.10
Superbet
1.13
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Bet365
1.11
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
1.07
10Bet
1.10
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
85.0%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.4%
1.18
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
81.5%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.5%
1.20
Superbet
1.22
Betano
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
+3.5%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
79.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Betfair
1.22
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.7%
1.33
Betano
1.35
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
+7.8%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
76.5%
1.17
1xBet
1.20
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Superbet
1.18
William Hil
1.18
-3.9%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
76.5%
1.17
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Betfair
1.14
+0.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
76.0%
1.32
Superbet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.5%
1.29
Superbet
1.34
Betano
1.30
Unibet
1.30
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.6%
1.24
1xBet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
-2.6%
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
73.4%
1.27
Unibet
1.32
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.25
-
-
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
72.3%
1.40
Superbet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
+7.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.4%
1.34
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Superbet
1.35
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
70.2%
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-
-
-
-
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
70.0%
1.27
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
-3.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lille
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Giroud33%
H. Haraldsson33%
Tiago Santos33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
R. Perraud67%
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Bentaleb33%
Olivier Giroud33%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
H. Haraldsson0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Paris Saint Germain · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia31%
Désiré Doué29%
Bradley Barcola26%
Gonçalo Ramos21%
Nuno Mendes16%
Senny Mayulu15%
João Neves14%
Ibrahim Mbaye11%
Vitinha11%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Dro Fernández8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Marquinhos7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
Fabián Ruiz6%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Willian Pacho5%
Ilya Zabarnyi3%
Lucas Hernández0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ilya Zabarnyi19%
Achraf Hakimi16%
Nuno Mendes13%
Lucas Hernández11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia9%
Kang-in Lee8%
Lucas Beraldo8%
Quentin Ndjantou7%
Gonçalo Ramos7%
Marquinhos7%
Bradley Barcola7%
Warren Zaïre-Emery6%
Senny Mayulu5%
Matvey Safonov4%
João Neves3%
Désiré Doué3%
Vitinha2%
Ousmane Dembélé0%
Willian Pacho0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Ibrahim Mbaye0%
Dro Fernández0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ousmane Dembélé27%
Achraf Hakimi26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia22%
Nuno Mendes18%
Désiré Doué18%
Fabián Ruiz16%
Quentin Ndjantou14%
Vitinha13%
João Neves11%
Bradley Barcola11%
Kang-in Lee11%
Senny Mayulu10%
Warren Zaïre-Emery10%
Lucas Hernández8%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Ibrahim Mbaye4%
Willian Pacho2%
Gonçalo Ramos2%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Dro Fernández0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ousmane Dembélé35%
Désiré Doué26%
Gonçalo Ramos26%
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia24%
Bradley Barcola20%
Senny Mayulu15%
Vitinha15%
Nuno Mendes11%
Fabián Ruiz10%
Kang-in Lee8%
Ibrahim Mbaye7%
Achraf Hakimi6%
João Neves6%
Lucas Beraldo4%
Warren Zaïre-Emery2%
Lucas Hernández0%
Marquinhos0%
Matvey Safonov0%
Willian Pacho0%
Ilya Zabarnyi0%
Lucas Chevalier0%
Renato Marin0%
Quentin Ndjantou0%
Dro Fernández0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lille's squad is €1166m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€312m vs €1477m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lille's attack is €505m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€133m vs €638m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lille's midfield is €328m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€102m vs €430m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lille's defence is €333m less valuable than Paris Saint Germain's (€76m vs €409m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre