This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
0.93
1.21
1.62
1.69
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.00
0.67
1.83
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.30
1.14
0.86
1.62
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
No
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.2%
2-0
10.0%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
9.2%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
6.5%
0-0
6.2%
1-2
5.1%
Lille goals ↓
Toulouse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
4.2%
2.6%
0.9%
0.2%
1
9.2%
11%
5.1%
1.7%
0.4%
2
10%
10.0%
4.9%
1.6%
0.4%
3
6.5%
6.5%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lille goals (down), columns = Toulouse goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lille is 0.46 points better than Toulouse in terms of average points per game (1.79 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lille is 0.11 goals better than Toulouse in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lille is 0.31 goals better than Toulouse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.09 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lille is 13.6 percentage points better than Toulouse in terms of average possession (56% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lille
For 3.8 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
For 3.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 9.9 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.7
9.1
1.7
1.5
1.9
23.0
23.2
22.9
vs Stronger (2)
5.0
5.0
-
1.5
3.0
0.0
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (28)
9.2
8.0
9.9
1.8
1.2
2.4
22.6
23.5
22.1
vs Weaker (20)
9.0
10.0
8.0
1.6
1.9
1.4
24.0
24.0
24.0
% over line
36%
30%
42%
30%
29%
31%
73%
70%
75%
% under line
64%
70%
58%
70%
71%
69%
27%
30%
25%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.4
9.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
25.5
25.8
25.2
vs Stronger (13)
8.8
8.5
9.5
2.3
3.1
1.0
24.1
26.0
18.5
vs Similar (34)
9.4
10.4
8.9
2.3
1.8
2.6
25.9
25.0
26.3
vs Weaker (3)
10.0
10.0
-
0.7
1.0
0.0
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
42%
50%
36%
32%
26%
37%
81%
75%
86%
% under line
58%
50%
64%
68%
74%
63%
19%
25%
14%
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.9%
Under 3.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
67.3%
Under 21.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lille or Draw
74.3%
Avg Implied -
59%
24%
18%
covers Lille + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lille or Toulouse
73.4%
Avg Implied -
59%
24%
18%
covers Lille + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Toulouse
52.3%
Avg Implied -
59%
24%
18%
covers Draw + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lille over/under 0.5
Over
81.0%
Under
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5
Over
49.4%
Under
50.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5
Over
23.2%
Under
76.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 3.5
Over
8.7%
Under
91.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5
Over
68.8%
Under
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 3.5
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lille, so a minus line means Lille give that many goals of a start and Toulouse receive them. At -1, Lille must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lille win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lille)
Lille -2
11.0%
Draw -2
14.9%
Toulouse +2
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lille)
Lille -1
25.9%
Draw -1
21.8%
Toulouse +1
52.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lille)
Lille +1
74.3%
Draw +1
15.0%
Toulouse -1
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lille)
Lille +2
89.3%
Draw +2
7.3%
Toulouse -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.37
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (15)
0.33
0.47
0.25
0.62
0.43
0.29
vs Weaker (13)
0.46
0.23
0.20
0.40
0.62
0.12
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.36
0.43
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.17
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.60
0.43
0.29
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
0.57
0.71
0.88
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
2.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.53
0.50
0.62
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
0.60
0.60
1.12
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.70
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lille over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lille
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Giroud33%
H. Haraldsson33%
Tiago Santos33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
R. Perraud67%
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Bentaleb33%
Olivier Giroud33%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
H. Haraldsson0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Toulouse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Tapé33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Schmidt67%
R. Nicolaisen33%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
S. Hidalgo33%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hidalgo67%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
Julián Vignolo33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
C. Tapé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lille's squad is €197m more valuable than Toulouse's (€312m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lille's attack is €104m more valuable than Toulouse's (€133m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lille's midfield is €64m more valuable than Toulouse's (€102m vs €39m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lille's defence is €30m more valuable than Toulouse's (€76m vs €46m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Nice
Auxerre