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Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad Result & Analysis

Date: 21/05/2025
Time: 17:00
Final 1-1
Lillestrom
Lillestrom
Vs
38%
31%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Norway: NM Cupen
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game13 Player market rates14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lillestrom win✗ Miss
38.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
31.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad win✗ Miss
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LillestromLillestrom

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-522D10W50W30W20W10W30W11D11D20WA·AAL31/03H·ODD05/04A·SKJ13/04A·STA21/04A·EID24/04A·LYN27/04H·MOS03/05A·GRO07/05A·SKE12/05H·KON16/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.671.431.291.382.00
vs Stronger (2)1.504.501.004.002.005.00
vs Similar (16)1.191.501.291.291.111.67
vs Weaker (12)1.671.421.670.831.672.00
Clean sheet %27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FredrikstadFredrikstad

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-530W01L20W40W31W50W00D31W10W10WH·BRA29/03A·ROS05/04H·VAL09/04A·SAR12/04H·SAN21/04A·FLI24/04A·HAU27/04A·POR07/05A·KRI11/05H·KFU16/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.330.801.310.691.360.93
vs Stronger (2)2.502.003.002.002.002.00
vs Similar (18)0.890.831.000.670.671.17
vs Weaker (10)1.900.502.000.331.860.57
Clean sheet %60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%12%021%128%220%311%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.0%
Under 1.5
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
38.9%
Under 2.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.0%
Under 3.5
81.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
46.6%
No
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.6%
0-0
11.9%
1-0
11.4%
0-1
9.7%
2-1
8.0%
2-0
7.6%
1-2
6.9%
0-2
5.8%
Lillestrom goals ↓
Fredrikstad goals →
01234
012%9.7%5.8%2.0%0.5%
111%15%6.9%2.4%0.6%
27.6%8.0%4.2%1.5%0.4%
33.0%3.2%1.7%0.6%0.2%
40.9%1.0%0.5%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lillestrom goals (down), columns = Fredrikstad goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Molde
2.71
Lysekloster
2.50
Ham-Kam
2.50
Stromsgodset
2.50
Viking
2.50
Sandnes ULF
2.50
Stabaek
2.40
Tromso
2.33
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.25
Eidsvold
2.25
Raufoss
2.25
Bryne
2.25
Fredrikstad
2.14
Lillestrom
2.00
KFUM Oslo
2.00
Tromsdalen Uil
2.00
Levanger
2.00
Brann
2.00
Arendal
2.00
Alta
2.00
Råde
2.00
Kjelsås
2.00
Bodo/Glimt
2.00
Kristiansund BK
2.00
Ranheim
2.00
Rosenborg
2.00
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Asane
2.00
Egersund
2.00
hodd
2.00
Valerenga
1.80
Sogndal
1.67
Træff
1.50
Bjarg
1.50
Junkeren
1.50
Pors Grenland
1.50
Skjervøy
1.50
Vard
1.50
Fram
1.50
Oppsal
1.50
Melhus
1.50
Mjondalen
1.50
jerv
1.50
Stjørdals-Blink
1.50
Frigg
1.50
Fløya
1.50
Strindheim
1.50
Hønefoss
1.50
Skeid
1.50
Elverum
1.50
Bærum
1.50
Flekkerøy
1.50
Ull/Kisa
1.50
Eik-Tønsberg
1.50
Aalesund
1.50
Lyn
1.50
Moss
1.50
Kongsvinger
1.50
Strommen
1.50
Djerv
1.00
Sotra
1.00
Start
1.00
Haugesund
1.00
Innstranden
0.91
Varegg
0.91
Harstad
0.91
Nord
0.91
Våg
0.91
Eiger
0.91
Hana
0.91
Rindal
0.91
Teie
0.91
Hamna
0.91
Skedsmo
0.91
Verdal
0.91
Skjetten
0.91
Lillehammer
0.91
Melbo IL
0.91
Gneist
0.91
Vindbjart
0.91
SF Grei
0.91
Elnesvågen
0.91
IF Ready
0.91
Åssiden IF
0.91
Brumunddal
0.91
Ulfstind
0.91
Bjørnevatn
0.91
Kvik Trondheim
0.91
Konnerud
0.91
Rollon
0.91
NHHI
0.91
Askøy
0.50
Torvastad
0.50
Kvik Halden
0.00
Ørn Horten
0.00
Gjøvik-Lyn
0.00
Varhaug
0.00
Rana
0.00
Sortland
0.00
Asker
0.00
Trygg/Lade
0.00
Sverresborg
0.00
Lørenskog
0.00
Vidar
0.00
Mosjøen
0.00
Gamle Oslo
0.00
Bjørkelangen
0.00
Grorud
0.00
Brattvåg
0.00
Notodden
0.00
Brodd
0.00
Spjelkavik
0.00
Sarpsborg
0.00
Nardo
0.00
Union Carl Berner
0.00
Ridabu
0.00
Sprint-Jeløy
0.00
Fjøra
0.00
Sandviken (Norway)
0.00
Flint
0.00
Volda
0.00
Follo
0.00
Nordstrand
0.00
Os
0.00
Sandefjord
0.00
Byåsen
0.00
Fana
0.00
Ullern
0.00
Lillestrom is 0.14 points worse than Fredrikstad in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 2.14).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Alta
5.00
Kongsvinger
5.00
Bryne
4.75
Stromsgodset
4.25
Lillestrom
4.00
Djerv
4.00
Brann
4.00
Sotra
4.00
Sandviken (Norway)
4.00
Eik-Tønsberg
4.00
Tromso
4.00
Strommen
4.00
Viking
3.75
Stabaek
3.60
Ham-Kam
3.50
Raufoss
3.50
Bodo/Glimt
3.33
Sandnes ULF
3.17
Træff
3.00
Bjarg
3.00
Tromsdalen Uil
3.00
Hønefoss
3.00
Askøy
3.00
Ranheim
3.00
Rosenborg
3.00
Asane
3.00
Sogndal
3.00
Fredrikstad
2.71
ODD Ballklubb
2.67
hodd
2.67
Molde
2.57
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2.50
Vard
2.50
Strindheim
2.50
Elverum
2.50
Lysekloster
2.50
Trygg/Lade
2.00
Eidsvold
2.00
Nardo
2.00
Fjøra
2.00
Torvastad
2.00
Moss
2.00
KFUM Oslo
1.83
Valerenga
1.80
Arendal
1.67
Kjelsås
1.67
Levanger
1.60
Innstranden
1.53
Varegg
1.53
Harstad
1.53
Nord
1.53
Våg
1.53
Eiger
1.53
Hana
1.53
Rindal
1.53
Teie
1.53
Hamna
1.53
Skedsmo
1.53
Verdal
1.53
Skjetten
1.53
Lillehammer
1.53
Melbo IL
1.53
Gneist
1.53
Vindbjart
1.53
SF Grei
1.53
Elnesvågen
1.53
IF Ready
1.53
Åssiden IF
1.53
Brumunddal
1.53
Ulfstind
1.53
Bjørnevatn
1.53
Kvik Trondheim
1.53
Konnerud
1.53
Rollon
1.53
NHHI
1.53
Junkeren
1.50
Skjervøy
1.50
Oppsal
1.50
Mjondalen
1.50
Stjørdals-Blink
1.50
Frigg
1.50
Skeid
1.50
Ull/Kisa
1.50
Lyn
1.50
Råde
1.33
Kristiansund BK
1.33
Lørenskog
1.00
Fram
1.00
Melhus
1.00
Grorud
1.00
Brattvåg
1.00
jerv
1.00
Notodden
1.00
Fløya
1.00
Brodd
1.00
Sarpsborg
1.00
Bærum
1.00
Volda
1.00
Follo
1.00
Aalesund
1.00
Start
1.00
Egersund
1.00
Haugesund
1.00
Pors Grenland
0.50
Flekkerøy
0.50
Kvik Halden
0.00
Ørn Horten
0.00
Gjøvik-Lyn
0.00
Varhaug
0.00
Rana
0.00
Sortland
0.00
Asker
0.00
Sverresborg
0.00
Vidar
0.00
Mosjøen
0.00
Gamle Oslo
0.00
Bjørkelangen
0.00
Spjelkavik
0.00
Union Carl Berner
0.00
Ridabu
0.00
Sprint-Jeløy
0.00
Flint
0.00
Nordstrand
0.00
Os
0.00
Sandefjord
0.00
Byåsen
0.00
Fana
0.00
Ullern
0.00
Lillestrom is 1.29 goals better than Fredrikstad in terms of goals scored per game (4.00 vs 2.71).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Tromso
0.00
Valerenga
0.40
Pors Grenland
0.50
Mjondalen
0.50
Flekkerøy
0.50
Aalesund
0.50
Fredrikstad
0.57
Arendal
0.67
Råde
0.67
Rosenborg
0.67
Molde
0.71
Lysekloster
0.75
Stromsgodset
0.75
Levanger
0.80
KFUM Oslo
0.83
Junkeren
1.00
Skjervøy
1.00
Vidar
1.00
Hønefoss
1.00
Skeid
1.00
Nordstrand
1.00
Sandefjord
1.00
Ranheim
1.00
Start
1.00
Moss
1.00
Egersund
1.00
Haugesund
1.00
Byåsen
1.00
Ham-Kam
1.25
Viking
1.25
Raufoss
1.25
Bryne
1.25
Brann
1.33
Alta
1.33
Kjelsås
1.33
Bodo/Glimt
1.33
Asane
1.33
hodd
1.33
Stabaek
1.40
Træff
1.50
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.50
jerv
1.50
Stjørdals-Blink
1.50
Eidsvold
1.50
Lyn
1.50
Kongsvinger
1.50
Sogndal
1.67
Sandnes ULF
1.67
Kvik Halden
2.00
Asker
2.00
Lørenskog
2.00
Fram
2.00
Gamle Oslo
2.00
Tromsdalen Uil
2.00
Brattvåg
2.00
Frigg
2.00
Notodden
2.00
Spjelkavik
2.00
Strindheim
2.00
Ull/Kisa
2.00
Os
2.00
Kristiansund BK
2.00
ODD Ballklubb
2.00
Fana
2.00
Ullern
2.00
Lillestrom
2.20
Oppsal
2.50
Melhus
2.50
Elverum
2.50
Bærum
2.50
Torvastad
2.50
Eik-Tønsberg
2.50
Innstranden
2.76
Varegg
2.76
Harstad
2.76
Nord
2.76
Våg
2.76
Eiger
2.76
Hana
2.76
Rindal
2.76
Teie
2.76
Hamna
2.76
Skedsmo
2.76
Verdal
2.76
Skjetten
2.76
Lillehammer
2.76
Melbo IL
2.76
Gneist
2.76
Vindbjart
2.76
SF Grei
2.76
Elnesvågen
2.76
IF Ready
2.76
Åssiden IF
2.76
Brumunddal
2.76
Ulfstind
2.76
Bjørnevatn
2.76
Kvik Trondheim
2.76
Konnerud
2.76
Rollon
2.76
NHHI
2.76
Ørn Horten
3.00
Rana
3.00
Trygg/Lade
3.00
Grorud
3.00
Brodd
3.00
Union Carl Berner
3.00
Sprint-Jeløy
3.00
Follo
3.00
Bjarg
3.50
Vard
3.50
Fløya
3.50
Strommen
3.50
Djerv
4.00
Mosjøen
4.00
Sotra
4.00
Nardo
4.00
Askøy
4.50
Gjøvik-Lyn
5.00
Varhaug
5.00
Sarpsborg
5.00
Ridabu
5.00
Fjøra
5.00
Sortland
6.00
Sverresborg
6.00
Sandviken (Norway)
6.00
Flint
6.00
Volda
6.00
Bjørkelangen
7.00
Lillestrom is 1.63 goals worse than Fredrikstad in terms of goals conceded per game (2.20 vs 0.57).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lillestrom or Draw✓ Hit
69.5%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Lillestrom + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom or Fredrikstad✗ Miss
68.7%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Lillestrom + Fredrikstad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fredrikstad✓ Hit
61.8%
Avg Implied -
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Fredrikstad
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
69.9%
Under
30.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
33.7%
Under
66.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.0%
Under
88.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.9%
Under
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.1%
Under
71.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Lillestrom, so a minus line means Lillestrom give that many goals of a start and Fredrikstad receive them. At -1, Lillestrom must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lillestrom win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lillestrom)Actual: Fredrikstad
Lillestrom -2
5.6%
Draw -2
11.3%
Fredrikstad +2
83.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lillestrom)Actual: Fredrikstad
Lillestrom -1
17.0%
Draw -1
21.2%
Fredrikstad +1
61.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lillestrom)Actual: Lillestrom
Lillestrom +1
69.5%
Draw +1
18.3%
Fredrikstad -1
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lillestrom)Actual: Lillestrom
Lillestrom +2
87.8%
Draw +2
8.6%
Fredrikstad -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LillestromLillestrom

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-222D00D10W20W10W00D20W01L00D20WA·AAL31/03H·ODD05/04A·SKJ13/04A·STA21/04A·EID24/04A·LYN27/04H·MOS03/05A·GRO07/05A·SKE12/05H·KON16/05
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.790.640.621.00
vs Stronger (2)0.501.500.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (16)0.620.810.710.860.560.78
vs Weaker (12)0.830.751.000.330.671.17
Clean sheet %43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FredrikstadFredrikstad

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W01L10W10W31W30W00D10W00D10WH·BRA29/03A·ROS05/04H·VAL09/04A·SAR12/04H·SAN21/04A·FLI24/04A·HAU27/04A·POR07/05A·KRI11/05H·KFU16/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.270.750.190.500.36
vs Stronger (2)1.500.002.000.001.000.00
vs Similar (18)0.440.330.580.170.170.67
vs Weaker (10)0.800.201.000.330.710.14
Clean sheet %80% (+56pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LillestromLillestrom

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D10W40W10W10W10W10W10W11D00DA·AAL31/03H·ODD05/04A·SKJ13/04A·STA21/04A·EID24/04A·LYN27/04H·MOS03/05A·GRO07/05A·SKE12/05H·KON16/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.640.640.751.00
vs Stronger (2)1.003.001.003.001.003.00
vs Similar (16)0.560.690.570.430.560.89
vs Weaker (12)0.830.670.670.501.000.83
Clean sheet %47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Fredrikstad) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FredrikstadFredrikstad

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W00D10W30W00D20W00D21W10W00DH·BRA29/03A·ROS05/04H·VAL09/04A·SAR12/04H·SAN21/04A·FLI24/04A·HAU27/04A·POR07/05A·KRI11/05H·KFU16/05
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.530.560.500.860.57
vs Stronger (2)1.002.001.002.001.002.00
vs Similar (18)0.440.500.420.500.500.50
vs Weaker (10)1.100.301.000.001.140.43
Clean sheet %67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (Lillestrom) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lillestrom over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lillestrom over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fredrikstad over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 7.599.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 6.599.2%-------✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals97.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.597.3%-------✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals96.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.592.3%-------✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals91.1%-------✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals88.0%-------✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap87.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards83.2%--------
Away +2 handicap83.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.581.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners77.4%--------
Over 19.5 fouls77.2%--------
Away under 1.5 goals71.9%-------✓ Hit

🎽 13. Player market rates

Lillestrom · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Thomas Lehne Olsen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Felix Vá22%
Markus Karlsbakk20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Lars Ranger12%
Camil Jebara9%
Karl Linus Alperud9%
Kparobo Arierhi9%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Harald Woxen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ylldren Ibrahimaj35%
Harald Woxen27%
Stian Kristiansen25%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim24%
Frederik Elkær20%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Kevin Martin Krygard12%
Lars Ranger12%
Pontus Dahlberg11%
Sander Moen Foss11%
Ulrik Jenssen10%
Camil Jebara9%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Ruben Gabrielsen7%
Felix Vá6%
Thomas Lehne Olsen0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Salieu Drammeh0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Felix Vá22%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen17%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj12%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim12%
Frederik Elkær10%
Thomas Lehne Olsen8%
Yaw Paintsil8%
Salieu Drammeh8%
Lars Ranger6%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Markus Karlsbakk0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Thomas Lehne Olsen33%
Salieu Drammeh17%
Markus Karlsbakk13%
Lars Ranger6%
Felix Vá6%
Fredrik Gulbrandsen0%
Ulrik Jenssen0%
Pontus Dahlberg0%
Ruben Gabrielsen0%
Ylldren Ibrahimaj0%
Kevin Martin Krygard0%
Sander Moen Foss0%
Espen Bjørnsen Garnås0%
Eric Kitolano0%
Sturla Ottesen0%
Yaw Paintsil0%
Gustav Nordh0%
Frederik Elkær0%
Camil Jebara0%
Stian Kristiansen0%
Karl Linus Alperud0%
Harald Woxen0%
Gustav Kjolstad Nyheim0%
Kparobo Arierhi0%
Fredrikstad
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Johannes Núñez33%
Emil Holten20%
Sondre Sørløkk16%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger13%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold12%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas11%
Fallou Fall10%
Stian Stray Molde7%
Leonard Owusu6%
Ulrik Fredriksen6%
Jóannes Bjartalíð5%
Patrick Metcalfe4%
Rocco Robert Shein3%
Daniel Eid3%
Simen Rafn0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Ludvik Begby0%
Maxwell Woledzi0%
Sigurd Kvile0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Brage Skaret0%
Martin Borsheim0%
Salim Laghzaoui0%
Kennedy Okpaleke0%
Eirik Granaas0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Fallou Fall40%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger30%
Leonard Owusu23%
Daniel Eid20%
Eirik Granaas20%
Maxwell Woledzi16%
Martin Borsheim14%
Rocco Robert Shein13%
Jóannes Bjartalíð11%
Emil Holten10%
Ulrik Fredriksen9%
Solomon Owusu9%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold6%
Patrick Metcalfe4%
Sondre Sørløkk0%
Simen Rafn0%
Johannes Núñez0%
Ludvik Begby0%
Stian Stray Molde0%
Sigurd Kvile0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Brage Skaret0%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas0%
Salim Laghzaoui0%
Kennedy Okpaleke0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Emil Holten15%
Rocco Robert Shein13%
Sondre Sørløkk13%
Jóannes Bjartalíð11%
Daniel Eid10%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger10%
Ludvik Begby8%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold3%
Simen Rafn0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Johannes Núñez0%
Ulrik Fredriksen0%
Patrick Metcalfe0%
Stian Stray Molde0%
Leonard Owusu0%
Maxwell Woledzi0%
Sigurd Kvile0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Brage Skaret0%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas0%
Fallou Fall0%
Martin Borsheim0%
Salim Laghzaoui0%
Kennedy Okpaleke0%
Eirik Granaas0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Johannes Núñez17%
Salim Laghzaoui17%
Henrik Langaas Skogvold16%
Sondre Sørløkk13%
Jóannes Bjartalíð11%
Emil Holten10%
Rocco Robert Shein7%
Stian Stray Molde4%
Daniel Eid3%
Oskar Øhlenschlaeger3%
Ulrik Fredriksen3%
Simen Rafn0%
Solomon Owusu0%
Ludvik Begby0%
Patrick Metcalfe0%
Leonard Owusu0%
Maxwell Woledzi0%
Sigurd Kvile0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Brage Skaret0%
Benjamin Thoresen Faraas0%
Fallou Fall0%
Martin Borsheim0%
Kennedy Okpaleke0%
Eirik Granaas0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (24)
€75m
VIK (27)
€47m
MOL (26)
€35m
BRA (25)
€27m
ROS (23)
€23m
S0F (24)
€16m
VAL (22)
€16m
FRE (25)
€15m
TRO (22)
€15m
LIL (25)
€14m
AAL (25)
€13m
KB (21)
€13m
SAN (23)
€12m
HAM (24)
€10m
STA (24)
€9m
OB (25)
€9m
STA (25)
€9m
HAU (24)
€9m
KO (24)
€8m
STR (22)
€7m
BRY (21)
€6m
KON (24)
€6m
EGE (25)
€5m
SOG (19)
€4m
MOS (21)
€4m
LYN (23)
€4m
RAN (22)
€4m
HOD (20)
€3m
ASA (22)
€3m
SU (21)
€3m
RAU (17)
€2m
STR (19)
€2m
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad have a similar squad value (both €14m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€22m
VIK (10)
€21m
MOL (7)
€13m
BRA (10)
€11m
ROS (8)
€10m
S0F (10)
€9m
LIL (9)
€6m
VAL (7)
€6m
STA (9)
€5m
AAL (7)
€5m
KB (6)
€5m
FRE (5)
€5m
SAN (8)
€4m
TRO (6)
€4m
HAM (10)
€4m
STR (9)
€3m
HAU (8)
€3m
KON (10)
€3m
OB (6)
€3m
KO (8)
€3m
BRY (6)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
MOS (6)
€2m
HOD (7)
€1m
ASA (7)
€1m
RAN (6)
€1m
EGE (5)
€1m
LYN (5)
€1m
SOG (6)
€1m
SU (5)
€1m
STR (5)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad have a similar attack value (both €6m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (7)
€27m
VIK (5)
€12m
MOL (8)
€7m
BRA (4)
€7m
VAL (6)
€5m
KB (6)
€4m
AAL (8)
€4m
LIL (4)
€4m
ROS (4)
€3m
S0F (5)
€3m
STA (8)
€3m
HAM (6)
€3m
TRO (5)
€3m
OB (7)
€3m
FRE (4)
€3m
SAN (4)
€2m
KO (5)
€2m
HAU (6)
€2m
STR (5)
€2m
STA (5)
€2m
LYN (9)
€2m
BRY (5)
€1m
EGE (8)
€1m
RAN (5)
€1m
SOG (5)
€1m
SU (7)
€1m
KON (3)
€1m
MOS (6)
€1m
HOD (4)
€1m
RAU (4)
€0m
ASA (4)
€0m
STR (4)
€0m
Lillestrom and Fredrikstad have a similar midfield value (both €4m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BOD (10)
€26m
VIK (12)
€15m
MOL (11)
€15m
ROS (11)
€9m
BRA (11)
€9m
TRO (11)
€8m
FRE (16)
€8m
VAL (9)
€5m
SAN (11)
€5m
LIL (12)
€5m
AAL (10)
€4m
S0F (9)
€4m
HAM (8)
€4m
KO (11)
€4m
HAU (10)
€4m
STA (12)
€4m
KB (9)
€3m
OB (12)
€3m
STA (10)
€3m
BRY (10)
€2m
SOG (8)
€2m
EGE (12)
€2m
STR (8)
€2m
KON (11)
€2m
MOS (9)
€2m
ASA (11)
€2m
RAN (11)
€2m
HOD (9)
€1m
LYN (9)
€1m
RAU (9)
€1m
SU (9)
€1m
STR (10)
€1m
Lillestrom's defence is €2m less valuable than Fredrikstad's (€5m vs €8m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
LIL wins
0
Draws
2
FRE wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad · H/A from LIL
DateH/AGameScore
20/10/24AFredrikstad Vs LIL2-1
20/05/24HLIL Vs Fredrikstad0-3

LillestromLillestrom

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/25HLIL Vs Kongsvinger2-0
12/05/25ASkeid Vs LIL1-1
07/05/25AGrorud Vs LIL1-1
03/05/25HLIL Vs Moss3-0
27/04/25ALyn Vs LIL0-1
24/04/25AEidsvold Vs LIL0-2
21/04/25AStabaek Vs LIL0-3
13/04/25ASkjetten Vs LIL0-5
05/04/25HLIL Vs ODD Ballklubb1-0
31/03/25AAalesund Vs LIL2-2

FredrikstadFredrikstad

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/05/25HFRE Vs KFUM Oslo1-0
11/05/25AKristiansund BK Vs FRE0-1
07/05/25APors Grenland Vs FRE1-3
27/04/25AHaugesund Vs FRE0-0
24/04/25AFlint Vs FRE0-5
21/04/25HFRE Vs Sandefjord3-1
12/04/25ASarpsborg Vs FRE0-4
09/04/25HFRE Vs Valerenga2-0
05/04/25ARosenborg Vs FRE1-0
29/03/25HFRE Vs Brann3-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lillestrom
Lillestrom
Norway: NM Cupen
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.24
HomeLLWWW1.19
AwayWWWDD1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%33%38%
AVG goals3.403.053.66
Over 1.5 %84%81%86%
Over 2.5 %66%62%69%
Over 3.5 %38%29%45%
Scored1.601.331.79
Conceded1.801.711.86
BTTS50%48%52%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners10.2610.1210.39
Cards3.684.293.06
Fredrikstad
Fredrikstad
Norway: NM Cupen
Recent: 8 Wins / 1 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWWW1.90
HomeDWWWW1.96
AwayWWDWW1.85
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%54%54%
AVG goals2.602.043.12
Over 1.5 %62%54%69%
Over 2.5 %44%38%50%
Over 3.5 %34%25%42%
Scored1.681.292.04
Conceded0.920.751.08
BTTS36%33%38%
Clean Sheet52%58%46%
Corners9.419.059.78
Cards2.973.002.94

🏆 17. League Table

Lillestrom plays in Norway - 1. Division
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LillestromLillestrom3080
83%
2.7
8718+69
3.5
87%
73%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6452.90.6
-
2EgersundEgersund3256
50%
1.8
5541+14
3.0
81%
47%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1121.71.3
-
3StartStart3055
53%
1.8
5835+23
3.1
90%
70%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
2341.91.2
-
4KongsvingerKongsvinger3155
48%
1.8
6546+19
3.6
94%
74%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
3122.11.5
-
5AalesundAalesund3254
44%
1.7
6140+21
3.2
81%
59%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
13
5441.91.2
-
6RanheimRanheim3148
45%
1.5
5051-1
3.3
87%
71%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
7LynLyn3047
47%
1.6
4837+11
2.8
77%
60%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1211.61.2
-
8SogndalSogndal3043
40%
1.4
4948+1
3.2
87%
67%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.61.6
-
9ODD BallklubbODD Ballklubb3033
27%
1.1
3750-13
2.9
80%
50%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
3331.21.7
-
10hoddhodd3033
27%
1.1
3452-18
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.11.7
-
11StabaekStabaek3031
23%
1.0
4553-8
3.3
90%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
9
5231.51.8
-
12AsaneAsane3031
23%
1.0
3853-15
3.0
90%
57%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1021.31.8
-
13MossMoss3231
25%
1.0
4468-24
3.5
97%
72%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.42.1
-
14RaufossRaufoss3030
23%
1.0
4356-13
3.3
83%
67%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.41.9
-
15MjondalenMjondalen3025
20%
0.8
3671-35
3.6
87%
67%
57%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.4
-
16SkeidSkeid3015
7%
0.5
3566-31
3.4
93%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.2
-
17BrattvågBrattvåg49
75%
2.2
74+3
2.8
100%
75%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
18GrorudGrorud20
0%
0.0
14-3
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.0
-
Norway: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: 1. Division stats & trends →
Fredrikstad plays in Norway - Eliteserien
RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1VikingViking3071
73%
2.4
7736+41
3.8
80%
77%
57%
11.9
63%
3.9
55%
24.4
60%
47
2112152.61.2
51%
2Bodo/GlimtBodo/Glimt3070
73%
2.3
8528+57
3.8
90%
73%
47%
10.9
66%
2.7
31%
18.0
23%
75
2227262.80.9
64%
3TromsoTromso3057
60%
1.9
5036+14
2.9
67%
53%
43%
8.5
37%
3.7
57%
23.8
63%
15
4381.71.2
50%
4BrannBrann3056
57%
1.9
5546+9
3.4
90%
77%
43%
11.0
73%
4.4
59%
24.3
67%
27
11791.81.5
62%
5SandefjordSandefjord3048
50%
1.6
5542+13
3.2
83%
67%
43%
10.6
57%
3.8
52%
26.0
73%
12
4251.81.4
53%
6RosenborgRosenborg3042
37%
1.4
4542+3
2.9
80%
50%
37%
10.6
60%
4.2
57%
24.0
67%
23
10391.51.4
53%
7FredrikstadFredrikstad3042
37%
1.4
3835+3
2.4
67%
40%
23%
10.1
67%
3.0
31%
20.7
37%
15
5381.31.2
46%
8Sarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF3041
37%
1.4
4850-2
3.3
83%
67%
50%
11.8
63%
3.2
46%
22.9
53%
16
9341.61.7
48%
9ValerengaValerenga2940
41%
1.4
4650-4
3.3
86%
59%
38%
11.2
69%
4.3
67%
25.6
79%
16
6551.61.7
48%
10MoldeMolde3039
40%
1.3
4642+4
2.9
73%
60%
37%
10.1
53%
4.1
55%
22.0
57%
35
137151.51.4
55%
11Ham-KamHam-Kam3037
33%
1.2
4247-5
3.0
87%
63%
37%
11.0
60%
2.8
33%
22.4
50%
10
4341.41.6
42%
12KFUM OsloKFUM Oslo3035
27%
1.2
4241+1
2.8
83%
50%
37%
8.9
38%
3.6
48%
21.7
57%
8
3241.41.4
50%
13BryneBryne3234
28%
1.1
3860-22
3.1
81%
56%
41%
9.7
41%
3.1
39%
23.1
53%
6
2121.21.9
46%
14Kristiansund BKKristiansund BK2934
31%
1.2
3456-22
3.1
79%
59%
41%
10.1
59%
3.6
52%
20.9
45%
13
5431.21.9
43%
15StromsgodsetStromsgodset3020
20%
0.7
3772-35
3.6
93%
80%
43%
12.8
67%
3.1
30%
20.3
40%
7
3221.22.4
46%
16HaugesundHaugesund309
7%
0.3
2280-58
3.4
87%
67%
53%
11.0
60%
3.1
41%
23.1
60%
9
3240.72.7
44%
17AalesundAalesund23
50%
1.5
41+3
2.5
50%
50%
50%
8.0
0%
2.5
50%
25.0
50%
13
5442.00.5
36%
Norway: Eliteserien 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Norway: Eliteserien stats & trends →

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