Limavady United face Ballymena United with the model favouring an away win. The odds show a 49% chance of Ballymena triumph, 29% for a draw and 23% for a home victory, while the expected total goals hover at 2.5. The most probable scoreline is 1-1, a 13.5% chance, reflecting the modest scoring output from both sides. Limavady’s home form shows an average of one goal scored and 0.8 conceded against similarly ranked opponents, whereas Ballymena’s away record averages 1.25 goals scored but 2.12 conceded, indicating a defensive vulnerability that could be exploited. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 5.5 (96.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.9%), Away +2 handicap (91.7%) and Under 4.5 (89.8%). Each pick is listed with its exact probability, underscoring a low-scoring, defensive encounter where Ballymena’s away edge is decisive.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Limavady United win
22.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United win
49.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Limavady United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.03
1.64
1.14
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.08
0.60
1.20
1.57
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.92
1.00
1.00
0.80
2.57
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
3.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballymena United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.60
1.13
1.33
1.20
1.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.00
1.58
0.80
1.60
1.14
1.57
vs Similar (18)
1.28
1.61
1.30
1.20
1.25
2.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
71.5%
Under 1.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
44.4%
Under 2.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
23.3%
Under 3.5
76.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.8%
No
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1
11.8%
0-0
9.8%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
5.8%
0-3
4.9%
Limavady United goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.8%
12%
9.8%
4.9%
1.9%
1
6.9%
13%
9.3%
4.7%
1.8%
2
3.8%
5.8%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
3
1.2%
1.8%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Limavady United goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Limavady United is 0.06 points worse than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Limavady United is 0.19 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.21).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Limavady United is 0.70 goals worse than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 1.53).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Limavady United or Draw
50.8%
Avg Implied -
22%
28%
49%
covers Limavady United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Limavady United or Ballymena United
71.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
28%
49%
covers Limavady United + Ballymena United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ballymena United
77.6%
Avg Implied -
22%
28%
49%
covers Draw + Ballymena United
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Limavady United over/under 0.5
Over
61.1%
Under
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5
Over
24.4%
Under
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5
Over
77.9%
Under
22.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5
Over
44.6%
Under
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5
Over
19.4%
Under
80.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 3.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Limavady United, so a minus line means Limavady United give that many goals of a start and Ballymena United receive them. At -1, Limavady United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Limavady United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Limavady United)
Limavady United -2
2.2%
Draw -2
6.0%
Ballymena United +2
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Limavady United)
Limavady United -1
8.2%
Draw -1
14.2%
Ballymena United +1
77.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Limavady United)
Limavady United +1
50.8%
Draw +1
23.5%
Ballymena United -1
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Limavady United)
Limavady United +2
74.3%
Draw +2
15.4%
Ballymena United -2
10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Limavady United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
0.20
0.60
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballymena United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.40
0.73
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.00
0.40
1.00
0.29
1.00
vs Similar (18)
0.50
0.78
0.40
0.60
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Limavady United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
0.80
0.20
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ballymena United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.73
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
0.58
0.40
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.83
0.90
0.60
0.62
1.12
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Limavady United's squad is €2m less valuable than Ballymena United's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Limavady United and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Larne
Portadown
Bangor