The contest between Limavady United and Bangor is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. Home odds sit at 30 %, a draw at 31 %, and the visitors at 40 %. The average goal tally is 2.3, so a 2-goal game is most likely, with a 1-1 scoreline projected at 14.5 %. Limavady, playing at home against a similarly-strengthened side, averages 1.25 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Bangor, on the road, averages 0.86 goals scored and 1.79 conceded to comparable opponents. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7 %), Under 6.5 (99.0 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (97.0 %), Away under 3.5 goals (96.1 %), Under 4.5 (91.5 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.0 %), and Away +2 handicap (88.1 %). Limavady’s recent run of three straight defeats ended with a 1-2 loss to Carrick Rangers, while Bangor’s four-game losing streak ended with a 0-2 defeat to Dungannon Swifts. The match remains finely balanced, but the model’s pick points to a Bangor victory.
Advertisement
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Limavady United win
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bangor win
44.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Limavady United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.03
1.64
1.14
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.08
0.60
1.20
1.57
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.92
1.00
1.00
0.80
2.57
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
3.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.00
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.77
0.71
2.07
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
66.8%
Under 1.5
33.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
38.8%
Under 2.5
61.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
18.8%
Under 3.5
81.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
45.4%
No
54.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
0-1
12.7%
0-0
12.0%
0-2
9.2%
1-0
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
6.0%
2-0
4.6%
Limavady United goals ↓
Bangor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
13%
9.2%
4.0%
1.3%
1
8.6%
14%
8.5%
3.7%
1.2%
2
4.6%
6.0%
3.9%
1.7%
0.6%
3
1.4%
1.8%
1.2%
0.5%
0.2%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Limavady United goals (down), columns = Bangor goals (across).
Advertisement
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Limavady United is 0.06 points worse than Bangor in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Limavady United is 0.06 goals worse than Bangor in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Limavady United is 0.51 goals worse than Bangor in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Limavady United or Draw
55.7%
Avg Implied -
25%
31%
44%
covers Limavady United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Limavady United or Bangor
69.3%
Avg Implied -
25%
31%
44%
covers Limavady United + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bangor
75.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
31%
44%
covers Draw + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Limavady United over/under 0.5
Over
60.3%
Under
39.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5
Over
6.7%
Under
93.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 3.5
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5
Over
73.1%
Under
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5
Over
37.8%
Under
62.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5
Over
14.6%
Under
85.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 3.5
Over
4.4%
Under
95.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Limavady United, so a minus line means Limavady United give that many goals of a start and Bangor receive them. At -1, Limavady United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Limavady United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Limavady United)
Limavady United -2
2.4%
Draw -2
6.7%
Bangor +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Limavady United)
Limavady United -1
9.1%
Draw -1
15.9%
Bangor +1
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Limavady United)
Limavady United +1
55.7%
Draw +1
23.1%
Bangor -1
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Limavady United)
Limavady United +2
78.8%
Draw +2
13.5%
Bangor -2
7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Limavady United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
0.20
0.60
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.92
0.21
1.00
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Limavady United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
0.80
0.20
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.85
0.50
1.07
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
85.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Advertisement
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Limavady United's squad is €2m less valuable than Bangor's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Limavady United and Bangor have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Bangor have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United's defence is €1m less valuable than Bangor's (€0m vs €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Portadown