Carrick Rangers are expected to win this match, with a predicted outcome of an away win. This is reflected in the statistics, with a 48% chance of an away win, compared to 24% for a home win and 28% for a draw. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring with a probability of 13.2%.
Limavady United have struggled at home, scoring an average of 1.91 goals and conceding 0.82 goals per match against weaker opponents. Carrick Rangers have performed well away from home, scoring 1.75 goals and conceding 0.75 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is an away win, with a suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals, occurring with a probability of 74.6%, and Under 3.5 goals, occurring with a probability of 73.4%. The home win percentage is 24%, the draw percentage is 28%, and the away win percentage is 48%.
Results analysis
The win extends Limavady United's recent struggles, with 3 consecutive defeats before this match. However, their home form hasn't been too bad, averaging 2.29 goals scored per game. Carrick Rangers, on the other hand, had been on a 2-game winning streak and boasted stronger away form. The model's selection, an away win, proved correct, as Carrick Rangers secured a 1-2 victory. The model's call was correct, with a 47% probability of an away win. The model also suggested an Over 1.5 goals outcome, which hit, with a 74.6% probability, and an Under 3.5 goals outcome, also a hit, with a 73.5% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Limavady United win✗ Miss
24.7%
Avg Implied 30.9% · @ 2.94
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.06
Dafabet
3.05
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Betano
2.95
Draw✗ Miss
27.9%
Avg Implied 25.7% · @ 3.53
Edge
+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.84
Dafabet
3.60
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.60
888Sport
3.60
Carrick Rangers win✓ Hit
47.4%
Avg Implied 43.4% · @ 2.09
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.16
Dafabet
2.16
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Limavady United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
0.93
1.77
0.92
2.06
0.94
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.57
1.00
vs Similar (13)
2.08
0.85
1.00
0.40
2.75
1.12
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
3.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrick Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.60
1.81
1.69
1.79
1.50
vs Stronger (11)
1.18
1.91
0.67
1.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (19)
2.16
1.42
2.50
1.60
1.78
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
@ 1.19-2.3%
Under 1.5
25.4%
@ 3.94+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.33
Pinnacle
4.27
888Sport
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
@ 1.66-7.2%
Under 2.5
51.7%
@ 2.06+7.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.71
Betano
1.67
10Bet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.16
Bet365
2.15
10Bet
2.15
888Sport
2.10
Marathonbet
2.09
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
@ 2.58-8.7%
Under 3.5
73.5%
@ 1.40+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.75
10Bet
2.65
888Sport
2.63
Marathonbet
2.62
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.39
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
52.6%
@ 1.55-5.9%
No
47.4%
@ 2.19+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.62
Betano
1.57
888Sport
1.57
William Hil
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
No
1xBet
2.27
William Hil
2.25
888Sport
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%@ 6.46+6.7%
0-1
10.2%@ 8.37+5.1%
1-2 ✓
9.4%@ 7.71+3.8%
0-2
8.8%@ 10.61+4.8%
0-0
8.6%@ 12.43+5.2%
1-0
6.6%@ 10.49+2.5%
2-1
6.4%@ 9.65+2.0%
2-2
4.9%@ 11.07+1.1%
Limavady United goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.6%
10%
8.8%
4.6%
1.8%
1
6.6%
13%
9.4%
4.8%
1.9%
2
4.1%
6.4%
4.9%
2.6%
1.0%
3
1.5%
2.3%
1.7%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Limavady United goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Limavady United is 0.40 points worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Limavady United is 0.64 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Limavady United is 0.66 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Limavady United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.37
0.77
0.31
1.00
0.41
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.45
0.00
0.50
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (13)
0.92
0.38
0.20
0.20
1.38
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrick Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
0.88
0.75
1.14
0.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.73
0.33
1.00
1.40
0.40
vs Similar (19)
1.11
0.53
1.20
0.60
1.00
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Limavady United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.00
0.62
1.06
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.82
0.55
0.75
0.50
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (13)
1.15
0.46
0.80
0.20
1.38
0.62
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Carrick Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.00
0.94
0.94
0.64
1.07
vs Stronger (11)
0.36
1.18
0.33
0.83
0.40
1.60
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.89
1.30
1.00
0.78
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.6%
1.19
10Bet
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
888Sport
1.20
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
73.5%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.45
Bet365
1.44
10Bet
1.44
888Sport
1.40
Betano
1.39
+8.7%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Limavady United's squad is €1m less valuable than Carrick Rangers's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Limavady United and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Portadown
Bangor