The model points to an away win as the most likely outcome, with a 49% chance for Cliftonville FC, a 28% chance for a draw, and a 23% chance for Limavady United to lift the trophy. The expected total goals hover at 2.5, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1, a 13.5% probability. Limavady, playing at home against a stronger opponent, averages 0.75 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Cliftonville, on the road against a weaker side, averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Under 5.5 (96.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%), Home under 2.5 goals (92.7%), Away +2 handicap (91.6%), and Under 4.5 (89.5%). Limavady’s recent form shows three straight losses before a win-win, while Cliftonville’s last five include a defeat but also two wins. The match is expected to be low-scoring, with Cliftonville likely to edge out a narrow victory.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Limavady United win
19.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
28.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC win
52.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Limavady United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.03
1.64
1.14
1.94
0.94
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
1.08
0.60
1.20
1.57
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.92
1.00
1.00
0.80
2.57
1.14
vs Weaker (6)
2.83
1.00
3.75
1.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.67
1.79
1.71
1.31
1.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
1.40
1.52
1.55
1.45
1.29
1.57
vs Weaker (5)
2.20
2.40
2.67
2.67
1.50
2.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
70.6%
Under 1.5
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.7%
No
53.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
0-1
12.7%
0-2
10.7%
0-0
10.2%
1-2
9.3%
1-0
6.6%
0-3
5.5%
2-1
5.2%
Limavady United goals ↓
Cliftonville FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
13%
11%
5.5%
2.1%
1
6.6%
13%
9.3%
4.8%
1.8%
2
3.4%
5.2%
4.0%
2.1%
0.8%
3
1.0%
1.5%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Limavady United goals (down), columns = Cliftonville FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Limavady United is 0.40 points worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of average points per game (0.96 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Limavady United is 0.41 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.02 vs 1.44).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Limavady United is 0.66 goals worse than Cliftonville FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.22 vs 1.56).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Limavady United or Draw
47.9%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Limavady United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Limavady United or Cliftonville FC
72.0%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Limavady United + Cliftonville FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cliftonville FC
80.1%
Avg Implied -
20%
28%
52%
covers Draw + Cliftonville FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Limavady United over/under 0.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5
Over
21.5%
Under
78.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5
Over
5.7%
Under
94.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 3.5
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5
Over
78.7%
Under
21.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5
Over
45.7%
Under
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5
Over
20.2%
Under
79.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 3.5
Over
7.1%
Under
92.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Limavady United, so a minus line means Limavady United give that many goals of a start and Cliftonville FC receive them. At -1, Limavady United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Limavady United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Limavady United)
Limavady United -2
1.7%
Draw -2
5.1%
Cliftonville FC +2
93.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Limavady United)
Limavady United -1
6.8%
Draw -1
13.1%
Cliftonville FC +1
80.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Limavady United)
Limavady United +1
47.9%
Draw +1
24.3%
Cliftonville FC -1
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Limavady United)
Limavady United +2
72.2%
Draw +2
16.4%
Cliftonville FC -2
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Limavady United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.47
0.71
0.50
1.00
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
0.50
0.00
0.60
0.71
0.43
vs Similar (12)
0.92
0.58
0.20
0.60
1.43
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.17
2.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.73
0.86
0.71
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.68
0.60
0.55
0.45
0.79
0.71
vs Weaker (5)
1.60
1.40
2.00
1.67
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Limavady United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.57
0.93
0.64
0.94
0.50
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
0.58
0.60
0.60
0.86
0.57
vs Similar (12)
1.00
0.42
0.80
0.20
1.14
0.57
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.83
1.50
1.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Cliftonville FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cliftonville FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.93
0.93
1.00
0.50
0.88
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
0.72
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.50
0.86
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Limavady United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Limavady United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Limavady United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cliftonville FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
93.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
78.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Limavady United's squad is €2m less valuable than Cliftonville FC's (€0m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Limavady United and Cliftonville FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Cliftonville FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Limavady United and Cliftonville FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Linfield
Glentoran
Ballymena United
Larne
Portadown
Bangor