Lincoln’s recent 2-game winning run and a 1-0 victory over Bolton set a positive tone, while Blackburn’s 1-2 loss to QPR after two straight defeats suggests a cautious approach. The model favours a home win, with a 44% chance, a 27% chance of a draw and 30% for an away win. The expected total is 2.9 goals, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Lincoln, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.75 goals scored and 1.08 conceded, whereas Blackburn, away, averages 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2% with a 4% edge, Under 7.5 at 99.0%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4% with a 5% edge, Under 6.5 at 97.0% with a 1% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 95.7% with a 2% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.0% with a 1% edge, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.4% with a 6% edge, and Home under 2.5 2H goals at 93.2% with a 2% edge.
Results analysis
The 0-0 draw shocked the pundits, as the pre-match favourite, Lincoln, had been tipped to win with a 44% probability. The model’s call was wrong, and the result was a stalemate. The match saw every suggested pick hit: Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.2%), Under 7.5 (99.0%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.0%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.0%), Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.4%), and Home under 2.5 2H goals (93.2%). Lincoln’s recent form, a draw after a DWWLL run, and Blackburn’s similar draw-heavy run, both ended in a goalless tie, confirming the model’s accurate predictions for all the other selections.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied 41.3% · @ 2.28
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.35
BetVictor
2.30
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Draw✓ Hit
26.6%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.36
Edge
-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.50
Betano
3.45
Pinnacle
3.45
Superbet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Blackburn win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied 30.7% · @ 3.06
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
3.20
Pinnacle
3.15
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.10
Bet365
3.10
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.87
2.62
1.00
2.00
0.76
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
2.36
0.86
2.75
1.08
2.06
0.69
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackburn
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.27
0.80
1.07
1.07
1.47
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.75
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (24)
0.96
1.25
0.82
1.09
1.08
1.38
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.0%
@ 1.28+6.9%
Under 1.5
20.0%
@ 3.48-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Under
Bet365
3.75
Pinnacle
3.71
Superbet
3.65
Unibet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.8%
@ 1.91+6.2%
Under 2.5
44.2%
@ 1.88-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
SBO
1.94
Betano
1.93
Superbet
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.90
SBO
1.90
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.4%
@ 3.23+4.4%
Under 3.5
66.6%
@ 1.32-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Unibet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Under
Superbet
1.35
Pinnacle
1.35
Betano
1.35
Betfair
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.5%
@ 1.71+4.9%
No
40.5%
@ 2.05-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.72
Superbet
1.72
No
Betfair
2.15
Unibet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Superbet
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.5%@ 6.02+5.1%
2-1
9.2%@ 8.52+3.9%
1-0
7.6%@ 7.65+1.7%
1-2
7.4%@ 10.06+2.9%
2-0
7.0%@ 10.69+2.8%
0-0 ✓
6.5%@ 9.75+1.9%
2-2
6.0%@ 12.52+2.4%
0-1
5.9%@ 9.00+0.9%
Lincoln goals ↓
Blackburn goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.5%
5.9%
4.6%
2.0%
0.6%
1
7.6%
13%
7.4%
3.2%
1.0%
2
7.0%
9.2%
6.0%
2.6%
0.8%
3
3.8%
4.9%
3.2%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.5%
2.0%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln goals (down), columns = Blackburn goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Lincoln is 0.19 points worse than Blackburn in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Lincoln is 0.02 goals worse than Blackburn in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 0.91).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Lincoln is 0.66 goals worse than Blackburn in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lincoln
For 5.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Blackburn
For 4.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 8.6 · Total 19.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lincoln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.4
8.8
3.9
4.3
3.6
23.0
23.1
22.9
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
5.0
10.0
4.5
7.0
2.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (47)
9.2
9.7
8.8
3.9
4.1
3.7
22.8
22.8
22.8
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
41%
43%
38%
54%
65%
44%
61%
70%
54%
% under line
59%
57%
62%
46%
35%
56%
39%
30%
46%
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackburn
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.3
3.8
3.7
4.0
20.8
19.7
22.0
vs Stronger (9)
11.1
11.2
11.0
4.0
4.4
3.5
20.1
20.2
20.0
vs Similar (40)
10.3
10.8
9.9
3.8
3.5
4.1
20.9
19.6
22.1
vs Weaker (1)
15.0
-
15.0
3.0
-
3.0
26.0
-
26.0
% over line
62%
72%
52%
58%
56%
60%
42%
32%
52%
% under line
38%
28%
48%
42%
44%
40%
58%
68%
48%
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.5
West Ham
11.1
Southampton
11.1
Millwall
11.0
Middlesbrough
10.9
Cardiff
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Preston
10.6
Blackburn
10.6
Bolton
10.4
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.3
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Bristol City
10.1
Swansea
10.0
QPR
10.0
Derby
10.0
Charlton
9.7
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.5
Sheffield United
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.0
Norwich
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Bristol City
3.9
Portsmouth
3.9
West Ham
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Southampton
3.9
QPR
3.8
Birmingham
3.7
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.6
Middlesbrough
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Millwall
3.5
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.4
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.3
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.7
Swansea
22.4
West Ham
22.2
Portsmouth
22.1
Bolton
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Birmingham
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.6
Charlton
21.5
Sheffield United
21.5
Norwich
21.4
Bristol City
21.2
Watford
21.1
West Brom
20.8
Blackburn
20.8
Stoke
20.8
Cardiff
20.8
QPR
20.6
Millwall
20.4
Preston
20.2
Burnley
20.0
Wrexham
19.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
58.7%
@ 1.61+1.1%
Under 9.5
41.3%
@ 2.19-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
Betfair
1.60
Under
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Betfair
2.20
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.16
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
56.6%
@ 1.76+3.7%
Under 3.5
43.4%
@ 1.97-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.91
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Superbet
1.72
Under
Unibet
2.06
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Betano
1.95
Superbet
1.95
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.8%
Under 21.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lincoln or Draw✓ Hit
70.2%
Avg Implied 69.4% · @ 1.35
Edge
+0.9%
44%
27%
30%
covers Lincoln + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Lincoln or Blackburn✗ Miss
73.4%
Avg Implied 72.3% · @ 1.29
Edge
+1.0%
44%
27%
30%
covers Lincoln + Blackburn
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Draw or Blackburn✓ Hit
56.4%
Avg Implied 58.3% · @ 1.61
Edge
-1.9%
44%
27%
30%
covers Draw + Blackburn
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.65
SBO
1.64
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lincoln over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
80.1%
@ 1.23+4.7%
Under
19.9%
@ 3.78-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
Under
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
3.98
Superbet
3.80
Unibet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Lincoln over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
48.0%
@ 2.19+5.3%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.63-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.30
Marathonbet
2.21
1xBet
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.66
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Lincoln over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.0%
@ 4.83+2.8%
Under
78.0%
@ 1.15-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
BetVictor
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Lincoln over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 10.92-0.6%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.04+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Blackburn over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
72.8%
@ 1.33+3.1%
Under
27.2%
@ 3.07-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.22
Betfair
3.20
Unibet
3.05
Betano
3.00
Blackburn over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
37.4%
@ 2.68+2.6%
Under
62.6%
@ 1.43-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.83
Betfair
2.75
BetVictor
2.70
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.68
Under
Pinnacle
1.46
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Blackburn over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
14.4%
@ 6.52+0.1%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.08-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
Blackburn over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 15.58-1.8%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.02+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lincoln, so a minus line means Lincoln give that many goals of a start and Blackburn receive them. At -1, Lincoln must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lincoln win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lincoln)Actual: Blackburn
Lincoln -2
9.5%
@ 9.70+0.2%
Draw -2
13.5%
@ 6.42-0.5%
Blackburn +2
77.0%
@ 1.17+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
11.00
Unibet
9.50
Marathonbet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.10
Away
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
Handicap -1 (Lincoln)Actual: Blackburn
Lincoln -1
23.0%
@ 4.27+2.0%
Draw -1
20.6%
@ 3.87-2.5%
Blackburn +1
56.4%
@ 1.60+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
4.50
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.25
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.20
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Unibet
3.80
Away
Bet365
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Handicap +1 (Lincoln)Actual: Lincoln
Lincoln +1
70.2%
@ 1.35+4.1%
Draw +1
16.4%
@ 4.58-3.2%
Blackburn -1
13.3%
@ 6.28-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Marathonbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Away
Betfair
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
6.20
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Handicap +2 (Lincoln)Actual: Lincoln
Lincoln +2
86.7%
@ 1.09+4.4%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 8.00-2.4%
Blackburn -2
4.6%
@ 13.80-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Bet365
9.50
Unibet
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
5.00
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
17.00
10Bet
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
7.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.43
1.38
0.31
1.00
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.21
0.46
1.50
0.33
1.00
0.56
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackburn
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.27
0.60
0.60
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
0.54
0.50
0.36
0.55
0.69
0.46
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
70.6%
@ 1.37+2.6%
Under 0.5
29.4%
@ 2.91-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
Under
Pinnacle
3.12
William Hil
3.10
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
36.5%
@ 2.76+2.7%
Under 1.5
63.5%
@ 1.41-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.90
Betfair
2.88
Pinnacle
2.83
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.77
Under
William Hil
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
10Bet
1.42
BetVictor
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.5%
@ 6.89+0.0%
Under 2.5
86.5%
@ 1.07-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Unibet
6.75
Under
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
57.0%
@ 1.95+9.4%
Under
43.0%
@ 1.78-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.95
10Bet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.89
10Bet
1.80
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.75
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
18.2%
@ 5.86+2.4%
Under
81.8%
@ 1.10-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.20
1xBet
6.20
Unibet
5.80
10Bet
5.75
Superbet
5.60
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
5.0%
@ 15.25-1.2%
Under
95.0%
@ 1.01+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Blackburn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.9%
@ 2.23-8.9%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.60+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.31
Betano
2.27
Unibet
2.23
Superbet
2.22
1xBet
2.20
Under
10Bet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Blackburn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 7.30-6.1%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.06+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Marathonbet
7.90
Superbet
7.10
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
Blackburn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 18.75-4.3%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
25.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lincoln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.43
1.23
0.69
1.00
0.24
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.14
0.39
1.25
0.75
1.06
0.12
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Blackburn) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Blackburn
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.53
0.47
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.40
0.75
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.42
0.75
0.45
0.55
0.38
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.23+3.4%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 3.85-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
3.90
Superbet
3.90
10Bet
3.80
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.4%
@ 2.08+0.6%
Under 1.5
54.6%
@ 1.69-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.12
William Hil
2.10
Marathonbet
2.10
1xBet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
Betano
1.75
Superbet
1.70
Unibet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
20.2%
@ 4.43-0.8%
Under 2.5
79.8%
@ 1.18+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.60
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.18
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
62.0%
@ 1.66+6.3%
Under
38.0%
@ 2.09-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.64
Under
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.07
Marathonbet
2.06
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.5%
@ 4.21+4.5%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.19-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Superbet
4.20
1xBet
4.10
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 10.62-2.0%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.03+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Blackburn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.2%
@ 1.86-7.5%
Under
57.8%
@ 1.85+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Betano
1.90
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Superbet
1.83
Blackburn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 5.33-7.6%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.12+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Superbet
5.35
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
Blackburn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 13.88-5.2%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.02+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
17.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Superbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.7%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.0%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Unibet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.04
+6.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.2%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.4%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
Unibet
1.01
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
91.9%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.3%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
1xBet
1.10
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
86.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Unibet
1.09
Betfair
1.06
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.5%
1.07
William Hil
1.10
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
-0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
85.6%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.09
BetVictor
1.08
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
82.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Pinnacle
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
10Bet
1.11
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
81.8%
1.10
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
1xBet
1.08
-2.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
80.1%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.22
+4.7%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
80.0%
1.28
Betano
1.31
BetVictor
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Superbet
1.29
+6.9%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.8%
1.18
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Unibet
1.18
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.0%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
-2.8%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
77.0%
1.17
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.15
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
76.1%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.28
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
-4.5%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.4%
1.29
William Hil
1.33
Superbet
1.32
Bet365
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Away over 0.5 goals
72.8%
1.33
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners
70.7%
1.35
Superbet
1.41
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
1xBet
1.32
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.6%
1.37
Betano
1.44
BetVictor
1.39
Superbet
1.39
Marathonbet
1.38
1xBet
1.38
+2.6%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
70.2%
1.35
Betano
1.39
Unibet
1.37
Superbet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
70.2%
1.35
Bet365
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.35
+4.1%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben House50%
C. Elder25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
R. Hackett17%
Dom Jefferies17%
Tanto Olaofe17%
R. Street17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben House50%
Conor McGrandles40%
Tom Hamer33%
Freddie Draper33%
M. Melia25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
Tanto Olaofe17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
R. Hackett0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
C. Elder0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Elder50%
Tendayi Darikwa33%
Tom Bayliss20%
Freddie Draper17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Ben House0%
Tom Hamer0%
R. Hackett0%
A. Reach0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben House50%
R. Hackett33%
R. Street33%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
A. Reach0%
C. Elder0%
Tom Bayliss0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
Blackburn
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andri Guðjohnsen60%
Oladapo Afolayan17%
Todd Cantwell17%
S. McLoughlin17%
Ryoya Morishita17%
J. Fevrier17%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
Harry Pickering0%
A. Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
J. Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
Tom Atcheson0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Todd Cantwell50%
A. Forshaw40%
Sam Morsy40%
S. McLoughlin33%
Harry Pickering25%
Andri Guðjohnsen20%
J. Garrett20%
Oladapo Afolayan17%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
Ryoya Morishita0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
J. Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ryoya Morishita33%
Harry Pickering25%
Andri Guðjohnsen20%
Ryan Alebiosu20%
Oladapo Afolayan17%
Todd Cantwell17%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
A. Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
S. McLoughlin0%
J. Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
J. Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Oladapo Afolayan33%
Todd Cantwell33%
Yuri Ribeiro0%
Harry Pickering0%
A. Forshaw0%
Sam Morsy0%
Balázs Tóth0%
Yuki Ohashi0%
S. McLoughlin0%
Ryoya Morishita0%
Andri Guðjohnsen0%
Ryan Alebiosu0%
J. Garrett0%
Kristi Montgomery0%
J. Fevrier0%
Tom Atcheson0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Lincoln's squad is €24m less valuable than Blackburn's (€12m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Lincoln's attack is €12m less valuable than Blackburn's (€3m vs €15m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Lincoln's midfield is €5m less valuable than Blackburn's (€2m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Lincoln's defence is €7m less valuable than Blackburn's (€6m vs €14m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Southampton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston