Lincoln’s recent 1-0 win over Bolton and a 2-game winning streak give them a modest lift, but the model still favours a Southampton victory. The Championship side’s away form against weaker opposition shows they average 2.5 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded, a stark contrast to Lincoln’s home record. The model assigns a 52% chance to an away win, 26% to a home win and 22% to a draw, making Southampton the clear favourite. The expected total is 3.6 goals, with the most likely total of 3 goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.2% probability.
The model’s suggested picks highlight a heavy edge on the under markets: Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6% (+8% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4% (+10% edge), and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 91.9% (+12% edge). Other strong picks include Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.3%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2% (+2% edge), Home under 3.5 goals at 93.4%, Under 6.5 at 92.3%, and Under 7.5 at 96.7%. These selections reflect the model’s view that both sides will score but keep the total below the market’s expectations.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lincoln win
27.8%
Avg Implied 23.5% · @ 3.98
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.20
Bet365
4.20
Dafabet
4.10
Betano
4.05
Pinnacle
4.04
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.79
Edge
+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.03
Betfair
3.90
1xBet
3.88
Marathonbet
3.88
Betano
3.85
Southampton win
46.9%
Avg Implied 51.8% · @ 1.81
Edge
-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.88
William Hil
1.83
Betano
1.83
10Bet
1.81
SBO
1.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lincoln
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.20
0.83
2.43
0.93
2.00
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
2.29
0.82
2.54
1.00
2.07
0.67
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.00
2.13
1.00
1.93
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.08
1.04
2.25
1.08
1.92
1.00
vs Weaker (4)
2.00
0.50
1.50
0.50
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.8%
@ 1.21+5.6%
Under 1.5
17.2%
@ 4.10-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Under
Pinnacle
4.36
Bet365
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
60.2%
@ 1.71+4.8%
Under 2.5
39.8%
@ 2.11-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
10Bet
1.73
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.19
SBO
2.14
Marathonbet
2.13
1xBet
2.13
Betano
2.12
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.8%
@ 2.73+3.7%
Under 3.5
62.2%
@ 1.42-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.88
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.77
Bet365
2.75
Under
Pinnacle
1.45
Betano
1.45
Bet365
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Both teams to score
Yes
62.3%
@ 1.65+5.8%
No
37.7%
@ 2.13-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.67
Betfair
1.67
10Bet
1.67
1xBet
1.63
No
BetVictor
2.15
10Bet
2.15
William Hil
2.15
Betfair
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%@ 6.88+5.1%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.70+3.5%
2-1
7.0%@ 12.03+3.3%
0-2
7.0%@ 8.87+2.0%
0-1
6.8%@ 7.79+1.1%
2-2
6.3%@ 12.67+2.7%
1-3
5.6%@ 12.57+2.0%
0-0
5.5%@ 12.18+1.8%
Lincoln goals ↓
Southampton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.5%
6.8%
7.0%
4.2%
1.9%
1
4.9%
12%
9.4%
5.6%
2.5%
2
4.0%
7.0%
6.3%
3.7%
1.7%
3
1.8%
3.1%
2.8%
1.7%
0.7%
4
0.6%
1.0%
0.9%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lincoln goals (down), columns = Southampton goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
West Ham
1.92
Wolves
1.90
Millwall
1.75
Burnley
1.72
Southampton
1.71
Middlesbrough
1.67
Wrexham
1.54
Derby
1.50
Norwich
1.41
Birmingham
1.39
Swansea
1.39
Bristol City
1.35
Sheffield United
1.30
Preston
1.30
Cardiff
1.30
QPR
1.26
Watford
1.24
Stoke
1.20
Portsmouth
1.20
West Brom
1.15
Charlton
1.15
Blackburn
1.13
Bolton
1.00
Lincoln
0.94
Lincoln is 0.77 points worse than Southampton in terms of average points per game (0.94 vs 1.71).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
West Ham
1.82
Wolves
1.81
Southampton
1.73
Burnley
1.63
Wrexham
1.50
Middlesbrough
1.49
Derby
1.46
Sheffield United
1.43
Norwich
1.37
Millwall
1.33
QPR
1.33
Bristol City
1.28
Birmingham
1.24
Swansea
1.24
Cardiff
1.23
Preston
1.20
Watford
1.15
Stoke
1.11
Portsmouth
1.07
West Brom
1.04
Charlton
0.96
Bolton
0.95
Blackburn
0.91
Lincoln
0.89
Lincoln is 0.83 goals worse than Southampton in terms of goals scored per game (0.89 vs 1.73).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
West Ham
0.92
Wolves
0.93
Middlesbrough
1.00
Burnley
1.03
Millwall
1.06
Southampton
1.19
Birmingham
1.22
Blackburn
1.22
Norwich
1.22
Stoke
1.22
West Brom
1.26
Charlton
1.26
Bristol City
1.28
Swansea
1.28
Derby
1.28
Preston
1.35
Cardiff
1.36
Portsmouth
1.39
Wrexham
1.41
Watford
1.41
Sheffield United
1.43
QPR
1.59
Bolton
1.77
Lincoln
1.87
Lincoln is 0.69 goals worse than Southampton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.87 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Middlesbrough
59%
Southampton
56%
Swansea
55%
Birmingham
54%
Norwich
54%
Sheffield United
52%
Stoke
52%
West Brom
52%
Watford
51%
Portsmouth
50%
Bristol City
49%
Wrexham
48%
Blackburn
48%
Millwall
48%
QPR
46%
Preston
46%
Derby
44%
Charlton
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lincoln
For 5.1 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 10.9 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Southampton
For 5.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 11.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 13.3 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lincoln
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.5
8.6
3.9
4.3
3.6
23.0
23.1
22.8
vs Stronger (2)
7.5
5.0
10.0
4.5
7.0
2.0
25.0
26.0
24.0
vs Similar (47)
9.1
9.8
8.5
3.9
4.1
3.7
22.8
22.8
22.8
vs Weaker (1)
9.0
9.0
-
5.0
5.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
41%
46%
36%
54%
67%
42%
61%
71%
52%
% under line
59%
54%
64%
46%
33%
58%
39%
29%
48%
This opponent (Southampton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.2
11.3
11.0
3.7
3.8
3.5
21.9
22.7
21.1
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
13.0
13.0
2.0
3.0
1.0
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Similar (40)
11.4
11.4
11.3
3.9
4.0
3.9
22.2
23.1
21.2
vs Weaker (8)
9.9
10.0
9.8
2.9
3.3
2.6
21.0
20.7
21.2
% over line
69%
75%
64%
52%
46%
58%
45%
46%
44%
% under line
31%
25%
36%
48%
54%
42%
55%
54%
56%
This opponent (Lincoln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Sheffield United
11.4
Southampton
11.1
West Ham
11.1
Middlesbrough
10.9
Portsmouth
10.8
Millwall
10.8
Cardiff
10.8
Blackburn
10.8
Bolton
10.5
Preston
10.5
Watford
10.4
Stoke
10.4
Norwich
10.2
Birmingham
10.2
Wrexham
10.1
Derby
10.0
QPR
10.0
Bristol City
10.0
Swansea
10.0
Charlton
9.8
Burnley
9.6
West Brom
9.4
Wolves
9.4
Lincoln
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Watford
4.4
Derby
4.1
Stoke
4.1
Sheffield United
4.0
Lincoln
4.0
Swansea
4.0
Norwich
3.9
Bristol City
3.9
Wolves
3.9
Blackburn
3.9
Portsmouth
3.8
Southampton
3.8
West Ham
3.8
QPR
3.7
Birmingham
3.7
Middlesbrough
3.6
Bolton
3.6
Charlton
3.5
Wrexham
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Millwall
3.4
Preston
3.4
West Brom
3.3
Burnley
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Wolves
23.4
Lincoln
23.0
Derby
22.9
Swansea
22.3
Portsmouth
22.2
West Ham
22.1
Southampton
21.9
Bolton
21.9
Middlesbrough
21.7
Birmingham
21.7
Norwich
21.5
Charlton
21.5
Bristol City
21.4
Sheffield United
21.4
Stoke
21.0
Watford
20.9
West Brom
20.9
QPR
20.7
Cardiff
20.6
Blackburn
20.5
Millwall
20.5
Preston
20.4
Burnley
19.9
Wrexham
19.8
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.9%
@ 1.65+2.6%
Under 9.5
41.1%
@ 2.13-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.63
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.56
Under
Betano
2.25
Marathonbet
2.18
Pinnacle
2.18
1xBet
2.13
Unibet
1.90
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
58.5%
@ 2.03+12.7%
Under 3.5
41.5%
@ 1.72-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Bet365
2.00
Under
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
51.0%
Under 21.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lincoln or Draw
53.1%
Avg Implied 47.6% · @ 1.96
Edge
+5.5%
28%
25%
47%
covers Lincoln + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.00
SBO
2.00
Marathonbet
1.98
1xBet
1.98
Unibet
1.96
Lincoln or Southampton
74.7%
Avg Implied 76.0% · @ 1.23
Edge
-1.3%
28%
25%
47%
covers Lincoln + Southampton
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw or Southampton
72.2%
Avg Implied 76.4% · @ 1.22
Edge
-4.2%
28%
25%
47%
covers Draw + Southampton
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lincoln over/under 0.5
Over
73.7%
@ 1.40+7.4%
Under
26.3%
@ 2.76-7.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.92
10Bet
2.75
Unibet
2.75
BetVictor
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Lincoln over/under 1.5
Over
38.6%
@ 2.93+6.8%
Under
61.4%
@ 1.36-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.03
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.91
Marathonbet
2.91
Under
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Lincoln over/under 2.5
Over
15.1%
@ 7.26+2.4%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.06-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.30
Marathonbet
7.30
BetVictor
7.00
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
Lincoln over/under 3.5
Over
4.7%
@ 17.25-0.9%
Under
95.3%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
23.00
Betano
11.50
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
Southampton over/under 0.5
Over
83.1%
@ 1.13+1.4%
Under
16.9%
@ 5.06-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.12
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
Unibet
4.90
1xBet
4.80
Southampton over/under 1.5
Over
53.1%
@ 1.74-0.5%
Under
46.9%
@ 2.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Southampton over/under 2.5
Over
26.4%
@ 3.31-1.7%
Under
73.6%
@ 1.29+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.37
Unibet
3.35
BetVictor
3.30
Under
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Southampton over/under 3.5
Over
10.5%
@ 7.05-2.6%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.06+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lincoln, so a minus line means Lincoln give that many goals of a start and Southampton receive them. At -1, Lincoln must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lincoln win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lincoln)
Lincoln -2
4.3%
@ 20.33-0.2%
Draw -2
8.2%
@ 11.33+0.1%
Southampton +2
87.5%
@ 1.05+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
23.00
Betfair
21.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
Handicap -1 (Lincoln)
Lincoln -1
12.5%
@ 8.68+2.1%
Draw -1
15.3%
@ 5.68-0.5%
Southampton +1
72.2%
@ 1.22-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
9.00
10Bet
8.50
Unibet
8.00
Marathonbet
7.90
Draw
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Marathonbet
5.50
Unibet
5.40
Away
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
Handicap +1 (Lincoln)
Lincoln +1
53.1%
@ 1.94+7.1%
Draw +1
20.8%
@ 3.63-3.8%
Southampton -1
26.1%
@ 3.05-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Unibet
1.95
Bet365
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
3.25
Unibet
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.93
Handicap +2 (Lincoln)
Lincoln +2
73.9%
@ 1.32+6.0%
Draw +2
14.5%
@ 5.11-3.0%
Southampton -2
11.6%
@ 6.15-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.05
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
5.00
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.65
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lincoln
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.43
1.29
0.29
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (28)
1.18
0.46
1.38
0.31
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.47
1.00
0.40
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (24)
0.71
0.58
1.00
0.50
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
63% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
70.4%
@ 1.31-0.9%
Under 0.5
29.6%
@ 3.26+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
BetVictor
3.40
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Marathonbet
3.22
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.1%
@ 2.46-3.6%
Under 1.5
65.9%
@ 1.49+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Betfair
2.55
Unibet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.45
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
BetVictor
1.51
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
13.9%
@ 5.87-1.9%
Under 2.5
86.1%
@ 1.10+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
Betano
5.80
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.9%
@ 2.31-6.4%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.56+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.40
Unibet
2.35
Marathonbet
2.31
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.27
Under
Pinnacle
1.64
10Bet
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Lincoln over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.0%
@ 7.72-4.0%
Under
92.0%
@ 1.05+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.20
1xBet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Lincoln over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southampton over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.4%
@ 1.70-2.2%
Under
47.6%
@ 2.05+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Unibet
1.71
1xBet
1.71
Pinnacle
1.69
Marathonbet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Marathonbet
2.05
Unibet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Southampton over/under 1.5 HT
Over
19.8%
@ 4.43-1.1%
Under
80.2%
@ 1.17+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.50
Betano
4.45
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
Southampton over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.8%
@ 10.00-4.6%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lincoln
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.40
1.14
0.64
1.00
0.19
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (28)
1.11
0.36
1.15
0.69
1.07
0.07
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Southampton) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Southampton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.53
1.13
0.60
1.47
0.47
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.38
0.46
1.25
0.58
1.50
0.33
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lincoln) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.5%
@ 1.18+3.2%
Under 0.5
18.5%
@ 4.27-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
Under
Unibet
4.40
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.1%
@ 1.91-1.8%
Under 1.5
52.9%
@ 1.82+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Under
Betano
1.87
Unibet
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.8%
@ 3.80-4.6%
Under 2.5
80.2%
@ 1.23+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Unibet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lincoln over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.6%
@ 1.93-4.2%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.77+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.90
Under
1xBet
1.79
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.74
Lincoln over/under 1.5 2H
Over
9.3%
@ 5.70-6.9%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.10+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.95
10Bet
5.75
1xBet
5.70
Betano
5.40
Under
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
Lincoln over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.7%
@ 11.25-6.6%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.02+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Under
Betano
1.02
Southampton over/under 0.5 2H
Over
63.1%
@ 1.48+0.1%
Under
36.9%
@ 2.51-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.47
Southampton over/under 1.5 2H
Over
27.5%
@ 3.25-1.0%
Under
72.5%
@ 1.29+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.24
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Under
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Southampton over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.6%
@ 8.05-1.8%
Under
90.4%
@ 1.04+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.80
Betano
7.30
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+6.6%
Under 6.5
96.0%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+1.6%
Home under 3.5 goals
95.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+0.9%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.2%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
92.0%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Unibet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+4.0%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
10Bet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-
+6.9%
Under 5.5
90.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.04
Unibet
1.03
BetVictor
1.03
+0.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
90.4%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+1.8%
Away under 3.5 goals
89.5%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
+2.6%
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
1.05
Bet365
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Betfair
1.04
-
-
+0.1%
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.1%
1.10
Betano
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
BetVictor
1.10
+1.9%
Home under 2.5 goals
84.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Betfair
1.05
-2.4%
Away over 0.5 goals
83.1%
1.13
Betano
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.12
+1.4%
Over 1.5
82.8%
1.21
Betano
1.25
BetVictor
1.23
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+5.6%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.18
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
William Hil
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Unibet
1.17
+3.2%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.2%
1.23
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.23
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Marathonbet
1.22
+4.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.2%
1.17
10Bet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Unibet
1.16
+1.1%
Under 4.5
79.6%
1.15
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Pinnacle
1.17
10Bet
1.15
Unibet
1.14
-1.9%
Under 25.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
1.47
Pinnacle
1.47
-
-
-
-
+14.1%
Under 5.5 cards
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
1.23
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-1.3%
Home +2 handicap
73.9%
1.32
10Bet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Unibet
1.32
Betfair
1.30
+6.0%
Home over 0.5 goals
73.7%
1.40
Pinnacle
1.42
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+7.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
73.6%
1.29
Betano
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Pinnacle
1.30
Bet365
1.30
+1.7%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.5%
1.29
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
-
+1.0%
Draw or Away
72.2%
1.22
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.25
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-4.2%
Away +1 handicap
72.2%
1.22
Bet365
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Betfair
1.20
-1.6%
Over 8.5 corners
70.9%
1.37
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.36
1xBet
1.34
Marathonbet
1.31
-
+3.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.4%
1.31
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.32
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
10Bet
1.30
-0.9%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lincoln
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ben House50%
C. Elder25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
R. Hackett17%
Dom Jefferies17%
Tanto Olaofe17%
R. Street17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ben House50%
Conor McGrandles40%
Tom Hamer33%
Freddie Draper33%
M. Melia25%
A. Reach20%
Tom Bayliss20%
Tanto Olaofe17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
R. Hackett0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
C. Elder0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
C. Elder50%
Tendayi Darikwa33%
Tom Bayliss20%
Freddie Draper17%
Varfolomieiev Ivan17%
Conor McGrandles0%
Ben House0%
Tom Hamer0%
R. Hackett0%
A. Reach0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
R. Street0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ben House50%
R. Hackett33%
R. Street33%
Conor McGrandles0%
Tom Hamer0%
Tendayi Darikwa0%
A. Reach0%
C. Elder0%
Tom Bayliss0%
Dom Jefferies0%
G. Wickens0%
Tanto Olaofe0%
Ryley Towler0%
Freddie Draper0%
Varfolomieiev Ivan0%
D. Elerewe0%
Andrei Coubiș0%
M. Melia0%
Southampton
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Cyle Larin67%
Léo Scienza33%
Romeo Akachukwu33%
Ryan Manning20%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Finn Azaz17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ryan Manning40%
J. Bree33%
Flynn Downes33%
N. Wood-Gordon25%
Tom Fellows20%
D. Mubama20%
Cyle Larin17%
Léo Scienza17%
Cameron Bragg17%
J. Stephens0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Finn Azaz50%
Ryan Manning40%
Léo Scienza33%
Flynn Downes17%
Cameron Bragg17%
Cyle Larin0%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
J. Bree0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
D. Mubama0%
Kuryu Matsuki0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Cyle Larin83%
Kuryu Matsuki17%
J. Stephens0%
N. Wood-Gordon0%
Ryan Manning0%
J. Bree0%
Flynn Downes0%
Daniel Peretz0%
Lewis Dobbin0%
Finn Azaz0%
Samuel Edozie0%
Tom Fellows0%
Léo Scienza0%
D. Mubama0%
Cameron Bragg0%
Romeo Akachukwu0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (24)
€274m
WOL (31)
€273m
SOU (30)
€205m
MID (29)
€142m
BUR (28)
€115m
SHU (27)
€110m
NOR (34)
€107m
BIR (26)
€93m
SWA (27)
€91m
WAT (22)
€88m
MIL (29)
€85m
STK (25)
€79m
WRE (32)
€77m
QPR (28)
€71m
BRC (25)
€66m
DER (25)
€57m
WBA (22)
€52m
PRE (20)
€43m
BLB (27)
€36m
POR (30)
€32m
CHA (29)
€31m
CAR (25)
€29m
BOL (22)
€17m
LIN (24)
€12m
Lincoln's squad is €193m less valuable than Southampton's (€12m vs €205m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (7)
€84m
WOL (11)
€79m
MID (12)
€74m
SOU (10)
€72m
BUR (14)
€70m
SWA (13)
€56m
NOR (10)
€46m
BIR (9)
€46m
STK (8)
€35m
MIL (10)
€30m
QPR (11)
€29m
SHU (9)
€29m
BRC (8)
€29m
WAT (6)
€28m
DER (8)
€25m
CHA (13)
€18m
PRE (6)
€17m
CAR (12)
€15m
BLB (8)
€15m
WRE (9)
€15m
WBA (7)
€15m
POR (12)
€13m
BOL (6)
€4m
LIN (7)
€3m
Lincoln's attack is €69m less valuable than Southampton's (€3m vs €72m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WOL (6)
€79m
SOU (5)
€53m
WHU (5)
€48m
WAT (6)
€38m
SHU (5)
€32m
NOR (11)
€31m
MIL (8)
€29m
MID (5)
€27m
WRE (9)
€23m
WBA (6)
€22m
BRC (6)
€19m
QPR (5)
€15m
DER (6)
€14m
BIR (5)
€12m
STK (6)
€11m
SWA (4)
€9m
BUR (3)
€8m
BLB (7)
€7m
POR (5)
€5m
BOL (4)
€4m
CAR (3)
€4m
CHA (3)
€3m
PRE (3)
€3m
LIN (4)
€2m
Lincoln's midfield is €51m less valuable than Southampton's (€2m vs €53m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WHU (12)
€141m
WOL (14)
€116m
SOU (15)
€79m
SHU (13)
€49m
MID (12)
€41m
WRE (14)
€39m
BUR (11)
€37m
BIR (12)
€35m
STK (11)
€32m
NOR (13)
€29m
QPR (12)
€27m
SWA (10)
€26m
MIL (11)
€25m
PRE (11)
€22m
WAT (10)
€22m
BRC (11)
€18m
DER (11)
€18m
WBA (9)
€15m
POR (13)
€14m
BLB (12)
€14m
CHA (13)
€10m
CAR (10)
€10m
BOL (12)
€9m
LIN (13)
€6m
Lincoln's defence is €73m less valuable than Southampton's (€6m vs €79m).
England: Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: Championship stats & trends →
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Swansea
QPR
Charlton
Wolves
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
West Brom
Birmingham
Sheffield United
Millwall
Wrexham
West Ham
Blackburn
Watford
Bolton
Derby
Cardiff
Norwich
Portsmouth
Stoke
Burnley
Preston