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Linfield vs Ballymena United Result & Analysis

Date: 08/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 0-3
Linfield
Linfield
Vs
62%
22%
16%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Linfield is the clear favourite, with a 62% chance of winning at home, thanks in part to their strong performance against weaker opponents, averaging 2.73 goals scored and just 1 conceded at home. Ballymena United, on the other hand, has struggled away against stronger teams, scoring an average of 1.11 goals and conceding 2.

The most likely match result is a home win, with a 62% chance of Linfield taking the three points. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, and the most likely score is 1-1, occurring 10.7% of the time.

Linfield's recent form is a story of inconsistency, but they did come off a win against Dungannon Swifts, scoring 3-1. Ballymena United, however, has struggled, with two straight defeats.

The model's selection is the home win, with a 62% chance of success. The model also suggests Over 1.5 goals, which has an 80.9% chance of occurring, with a 7% edge. The probabilities for a home win, draw, and away win are 62%, 22%, and 16%, respectively.

Results analysis

Ballymena United's 3-0 victory over Linfield marks a stunning upset, as the home side had been in a slump, coming off a defeat with a dismal recent form of LWLLL. Linfield's pre-match favourite status, with a 62% probability of winning, was not justified, as the model's selection, Home win, proved incorrect. The model's call was wrong. In a surprising turn of events, the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals hit, with an 80.9% probability, as the final score was indeed 0-3. The model's selection of Home win, with a 62% probability, failed to materialize, while the model's selection of Home win was wrong.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Linfield win✗ Miss
62.0%
Avg Implied 54.7% · @ 1.67
Edge
+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.71
Dafabet
1.71
Betano
1.70
William Hil
1.70
888Sport
1.70
Draw✗ Miss
22.5%
Avg Implied 24.7% · @ 3.69
Edge
-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.96
Dafabet
3.80
Betano
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Ballymena United win✓ Hit
15.5%
Avg Implied 20.6% · @ 4.41
Edge
-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.72
1xBet
4.62
Betfair
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
Dafabet
4.50

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L31W02L11D31W02L03L12L31WA·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03A·DUN07/04H·LAR11/04H·COL18/04H·CLI25/04H·DUN12/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.630.972.070.931.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.571.290.431.290.711.29
vs Weaker (16)2.560.693.500.621.620.75
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-322D02L11D21W22D11D32W00D12L23LH·GLE24/02H·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.671.121.441.141.93
vs Stronger (11)0.911.821.001.800.831.83
vs Similar (19)1.261.581.181.271.382.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%6%013%123%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.9%
@ 1.23+6.6%
Under 1.5
19.1%
@ 3.57-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.82
Betfair
3.80
888Sport
3.75
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.5%
@ 1.76+5.0%
Under 2.5
42.5%
@ 1.94-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
2.00
SBO
1.96
Betfair
1.95
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.1%
@ 2.86+3.1%
Under 3.5
64.9%
@ 1.35-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.03
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
888Sport
2.90
Under
Pinnacle
1.38
888Sport
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
@ 1.73+1.4%
No
45.8%
@ 1.93-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
No
William Hil
2.00
888Sport
2.00
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Betfair
1.95

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%@ 6.50+4.1%
2-0
10.5%@ 7.60+4.9%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.20+4.0%
1-0
9.3%@ 6.76+3.0%
3-0
7.2%@ 12.09+3.7%
3-1
6.8%@ 11.62+3.1%
0-0
6.0%@ 10.18+1.8%
2-2
4.7%@ 13.21+1.5%
Linfield goals ↓
Ballymena United goals →
01234
06.0%3.8%2.2%0.7%0.2%
19.3%11%4.6%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.7%1.5%0.3%
37.2%6.8%3.2%1.0%0.2%
43.7%3.5%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Ballymena United goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Linfield is 0.74 points better than Ballymena United in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.03).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Linfield is 0.43 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.21).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Linfield is 0.65 goals better than Ballymena United in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.53).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L00D11D01L10W11D01L02L12L10WA·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03A·DUN07/04H·LAR11/04H·COL18/04H·CLI25/04H·DUN12/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.370.800.470.470.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.500.140.860.430.14
vs Weaker (16)0.940.251.380.120.500.38
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D02L00D00D02L10W11D00D01L13LH·GLE24/02H·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.970.380.940.431.00
vs Stronger (11)0.271.270.401.400.171.17
vs Similar (19)0.470.790.360.730.620.88
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L20W01L01L20W01L01L00D21WA·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03A·DUN07/04H·LAR11/04H·COL18/04H·CLI25/04H·DUN12/05
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.601.270.470.730.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (14)0.290.790.290.430.291.14
vs Weaker (16)1.620.442.120.501.120.38
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Ballymena United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D11D21W20W01L21W00D11D10WH·GLE24/02H·LAR28/02H·POR07/03H·CAR14/03A·CLI21/03H·GLE07/04A·CAR11/04H·BAN15/04H·POR18/04A·CRU25/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.700.750.500.710.93
vs Stronger (11)0.640.550.600.400.670.67
vs Similar (19)0.790.790.820.550.751.12
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ballymena United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.9%1.23
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Betfair
1.25
888Sport
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+6.6%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Linfield and Ballymena United have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Linfield and Ballymena United have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Ballymena United have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Ballymena United have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
6
LIN wins
1
Draws
1
BU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Linfield vs Ballymena United · H/A from LIN
DateH/AGameScore
31/01/26HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-1
25/10/25HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-1
16/09/25ABallymena United Vs LIN1-0
07/02/25ABallymena United Vs LIN2-2
09/11/24HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-0
10/08/24ABallymena United Vs LIN0-2
24/02/24HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-0
25/11/23HLIN Vs Ballymena United4-0

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
12/05/26HLIN Vs Dungannon Swifts3-1
25/04/26HLIN Vs Cliftonville FC1-2
18/04/26HLIN Vs Coleraine FC0-3
11/04/26HLIN Vs Larne0-2
07/04/26ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN1-3
28/03/26AGlentoran Vs LIN1-1
20/03/26ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN2-0
10/03/26HLIN Vs Portadown3-1
01/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs LIN2-0
24/02/26ALarne Vs LIN1-1

Ballymena UnitedBallymena United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26ACrusaders FC Vs BU3-2
18/04/26HBU Vs Portadown1-2
15/04/26HBU Vs Bangor0-0
11/04/26ACarrick Rangers Vs BU2-3
07/04/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC1-1
21/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs BU2-2
14/03/26HBU Vs Carrick Rangers2-1
07/03/26HBU Vs Portadown1-1
28/02/26HBU Vs Larne0-2
24/02/26HBU Vs Glenavon FC2-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.60
HomeWLLLW2.16
AwayDLLDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%68%24%
AVG goals2.402.682.12
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %22%24%20%
Scored1.481.961.00
Conceded0.920.721.12
BTTS40%36%44%
Clean Sheet40%48%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Ballymena United
Ballymena United
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 5 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLL1.06
HomeDWDDL1.32
AwayLLDWL0.80
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%32%24%
AVG goals2.762.602.92
Over 1.5 %88%88%88%
Over 2.5 %48%40%56%
Over 3.5 %26%24%28%
Scored1.241.361.12
Conceded1.521.241.80
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Coleraine FCColeraine FC410
75%
2.5
81+7
2.2
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.00.2
-
2Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers49
75%
2.2
73+4
2.5
75%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.80.8
-
3Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts49
75%
2.2
63+3
2.2
75%
25%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.50.8
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC49
75%
2.2
86+2
3.5
100%
100%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1012.01.5
-
5LinfieldLinfield49
75%
2.2
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.21.0
-
6GlentoranGlentoran46
50%
1.5
64+2
2.5
100%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.51.0
-
7Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC46
50%
1.5
54+1
2.2
75%
50%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.0
-
8Ballymena UnitedBallymena United33
33%
1.0
44+0
2.7
100%
67%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.31.3
-
9LarneLarne11
0%
1.0
00+0
0.0
0%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1120.00.0
-
10Limavady UnitedLimavady United30
0%
0.0
16-5
2.3
100%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.32.0
-
11PortadownPortadown40
0%
0.0
28-6
2.5
50%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1010.52.0
-
12BangorBangor30
0%
0.0
09-9
3.0
100%
67%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0110.03.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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