Linfield’s recent 3-game winning streak and a 2-0 victory over Limavady United set the tone for a home win, the model’s most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly open contest, with the single most probable scoreline 1-1 at 11.7%. Linfield’s home form shows an average of 3.11 goals scored and 0.89 conceded against weaker opposition, while Bangor, playing away against stronger teams, averages only 1.0 goal scored and 3.0 conceded. The probability spread is 59% for a home win, 24% for a draw and 16% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 99.3%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.7%, Under 6.5 at 97.8%, Home +2 handicap at 94.4%, Under 5.5 at 94.0%, Away under 2.5 goals at 93.9%, Home under 3.5 goals at 88.2% and Under 4.5 at 85.6%. All selections carry the stated probabilities.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Linfield win
58.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Bangor win
16.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Linfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.94
1.00
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.23
0.62
1.12
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.47
0.82
3.11
0.89
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.87
0.67
2.00
0.93
1.73
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.50
0.00
1.00
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (26)
0.81
1.77
0.71
2.07
0.92
1.42
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.9%
Under 1.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.7%
Under 2.5
48.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.8%
No
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.7%
2-0
11.0%
1-0
10.9%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.5%
3-0
6.8%
3-1
6.1%
1-2
4.8%
Linfield goals ↓
Bangor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.5%
4.7%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
4.8%
1.4%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
6.8%
6.1%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
3.1%
2.8%
1.3%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Bangor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Linfield is 0.74 points better than Bangor in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Linfield is 0.56 goals better than Bangor in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Linfield is 0.84 goals better than Bangor in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.71).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Linfield or Draw
83.3%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
17%
covers Linfield + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield or Bangor
75.5%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
17%
covers Linfield + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Bangor
41.2%
Avg Implied -
59%
25%
17%
covers Draw + Bangor
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Linfield over/under 0.5
Over
84.3%
Under
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5
Over
55.1%
Under
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 3.5
Over
11.7%
Under
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5
Over
59.1%
Under
40.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5
Over
22.5%
Under
77.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 3.5
Over
1.3%
Under
98.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Linfield, so a minus line means Linfield give that many goals of a start and Bangor receive them. At -1, Linfield must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Linfield win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Linfield)
Linfield -2
16.5%
Draw -2
18.5%
Bangor +2
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Linfield)
Linfield -1
35.0%
Draw -1
23.8%
Bangor +1
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Linfield)
Linfield +1
83.3%
Draw +1
10.9%
Bangor -1
5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Linfield)
Linfield +2
94.3%
Draw +2
4.3%
Bangor -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Linfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.76
0.47
0.46
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.54
0.25
0.75
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.29
1.22
0.22
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.93
0.20
0.93
0.53
0.93
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.92
0.21
1.00
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Linfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.18
0.53
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.69
0.38
0.38
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.53
1.89
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Bangor) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Bangor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.93
0.47
1.07
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.85
0.50
1.07
0.33
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Bangor over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Linfield and Bangor have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Linfield and Bangor have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Bangor have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Bangor have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown