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Linfield vs Carrick Rangers Result & Analysis

Date: 29/11/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
Linfield
Linfield
Vs
63%
24%
13%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Linfield win✓ Hit
62.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers win✗ Miss
13.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W30W02L21W22D00D11D10W10WA·BAL16/09H·GLE20/09A·BAN26/09A·POR17/10H·BAL25/10A·COL28/10A·CLI02/11H·COL08/11A·BAN22/11H·CRU25/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.400.731.800.471.001.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.941.061.290.710.671.33
vs Weaker (14)1.930.362.250.251.500.50
Clean sheet %50% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L02L12L12L10W01L01L10W12L12LH·CLI06/09A·LAR20/09A·COL27/09H·BAL04/10H·POR11/10A·GLE18/10H·CLI25/10A·BAN31/10H·CRU08/11H·POR22/11
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.501.001.311.291.71
vs Stronger (14)1.001.640.881.251.172.17
vs Similar (16)1.251.381.121.381.381.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.5%
Under 1.5
25.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.4%
Under 2.5
51.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
26.6%
Under 3.5
73.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
45.6%
No
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.7%
1-0
12.6%
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.5%
0-0
8.4%
3-0
7.9%
3-1 ✓
5.9%
0-1
4.5%
Linfield goals ↓
Carrick Rangers goals →
01234
08.4%4.5%2.1%0.5%0.1%
113%11%3.9%1.0%0.2%
213%9.5%3.6%0.9%0.2%
37.9%5.9%2.2%0.6%0.1%
43.7%2.8%1.0%0.3%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Carrick Rangers goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Linfield is 0.41 points better than Carrick Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.36).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Linfield is 0.03 goals worse than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.67).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Linfield is 0.69 goals better than Carrick Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.56).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L10W20W00D10W20W00D00D00D10WA·BAL16/09H·GLE20/09A·BAN26/09A·POR17/10H·BAL25/10A·COL28/10A·CLI02/11H·COL08/11A·BAN22/11H·CRU25/11
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.300.870.270.530.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.750.501.140.570.440.44
vs Weaker (14)0.640.070.620.000.670.17
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L01L11D11D00D01L01L00D01L00DH·CLI06/09A·LAR20/09A·COL27/09H·BAL04/10H·POR11/10A·GLE18/10H·CLI25/10A·BAN31/10H·CRU08/11H·POR22/11
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.500.500.790.93
vs Stronger (14)0.640.640.380.501.000.83
vs Similar (16)0.620.750.620.500.621.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D10W10W02L11D02L00D11D10W00DA·BAL16/09H·GLE20/09A·BAN26/09A·POR17/10H·BAL25/10A·COL28/10A·CLI02/11H·COL08/11A·BAN22/11H·CRU25/11
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.430.930.200.470.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.190.560.140.140.220.89
vs Weaker (14)1.290.291.620.250.830.33
Clean sheet %70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Carrick Rangers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L01L01L10W00D00D10W11D12LH·CLI06/09A·LAR20/09A·COL27/09H·BAL04/10H·POR11/10A·GLE18/10H·CLI25/10A·BAN31/10H·CRU08/11H·POR22/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.800.500.810.500.79
vs Stronger (14)0.361.000.500.750.171.33
vs Similar (16)0.620.620.500.880.750.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Carrick Rangers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
Linfield and Carrick Rangers have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
Linfield and Carrick Rangers have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
Linfield and Carrick Rangers have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
Linfield and Carrick Rangers have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
7
LIN wins
1
Draws
0
CR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Linfield vs Carrick Rangers · H/A from LIN
DateH/AGameScore
11/01/25HLIN Vs Carrick Rangers3-0
03/11/24ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN1-3
21/09/24HLIN Vs Carrick Rangers1-0
02/04/24ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN2-3
13/10/23ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN1-2
26/08/23HLIN Vs Carrick Rangers3-3
18/02/23HLIN Vs Carrick Rangers2-0
03/12/22HLIN Vs Carrick Rangers3-1

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/11/25HLIN Vs Crusaders FC1-0
22/11/25ABangor Vs LIN0-1
08/11/25HLIN Vs Coleraine FC1-1
02/11/25ACliftonville FC Vs LIN0-0
28/10/25AColeraine FC Vs LIN2-2
25/10/25HLIN Vs Ballymena United2-1
17/10/25APortadown Vs LIN2-0
26/09/25ABangor Vs LIN0-3
20/09/25HLIN Vs Glenavon FC2-0
16/09/25ABallymena United Vs LIN1-0

Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/11/25HCR Vs Portadown1-2
08/11/25HCR Vs Crusaders FC1-2
31/10/25ABangor Vs CR0-1
25/10/25HCR Vs Cliftonville FC0-1
18/10/25AGlenavon FC Vs CR1-0
11/10/25HCR Vs Portadown1-0
04/10/25HCR Vs Ballymena United1-2
27/09/25AColeraine FC Vs CR2-1
20/09/25ALarne Vs CR2-0
06/09/25HCR Vs Cliftonville FC1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 5 Wins / 3 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDDWW2.02
HomeWWWDW2.50
AwayWLDDW1.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %62%81%42%
AVG goals2.262.272.25
Over 1.5 %70%81%58%
Over 2.5 %44%42%46%
Over 3.5 %16%4%29%
Scored1.521.731.29
Conceded0.740.540.96
BTTS38%35%42%
Clean Sheet48%58%38%
Corners---
Cards---
Carrick Rangers
Carrick Rangers
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 2 Wins / 0 Draws / 8 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.02
HomeLWLLL1.12
AwayDLLLW0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%31%21%
AVG goals2.442.152.75
Over 1.5 %66%54%79%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %24%23%25%
Scored1.000.961.04
Conceded1.441.191.71
BTTS48%42%54%
Clean Sheet26%38%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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