Linfield’s recent two-game winning streak and a 1-0 victory over Cliftonville set the tone for a clear home advantage. The model rates a home win at 63 %, a draw at 22 % and an away win at 15 %, making the home win the single most likely outcome. Linfield’s home form shows they average 2.75 goals scored and only 0.88 conceded against weaker opponents, while Crusaders FC, playing away against a stronger side, average just 1.0 goal scored and 2.33 conceded. The expected total is 3.1 goals, with the most probable scoreline being 2-0 at 10.3 %. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 goals at 98.6 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.3 %, Under 6.5 at 96.1 %, Home +2 handicap at 94.7 %, Away under 2.5 goals at 92.7 %, Under 5.5 at 90.6 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 88.2 % and Home or Draw at 85.1 %. Each pick is presented with its exact probability, and the home win, draw and away win percentages are explicitly stated.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Linfield win
63.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
21.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC win
15.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Linfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
1.00
1.94
1.00
1.31
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.62
1.23
0.62
1.12
0.60
1.40
vs Weaker (17)
2.47
0.82
3.11
0.89
1.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crusaders FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
2.13
1.38
1.75
1.14
2.57
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
2.14
0.75
2.00
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (23)
1.39
2.13
1.58
1.67
1.18
2.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.5%
Under 1.5
17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
55.4%
No
44.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.3%
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
8.7%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
7.1%
0-0
5.4%
2-2
4.8%
Linfield goals ↓
Crusaders FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.4%
3.4%
2.1%
0.7%
0.2%
1
8.7%
10%
4.4%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
9.9%
4.8%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.4%
7.1%
3.4%
1.1%
0.3%
4
3.9%
3.8%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Crusaders FC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Linfield is 0.79 points better than Crusaders FC in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Linfield is 0.34 goals better than Crusaders FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Linfield is 1.25 goals better than Crusaders FC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 2.12).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Linfield or Draw
85.0%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Linfield + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Linfield or Crusaders FC
78.4%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Linfield + Crusaders FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Crusaders FC
36.6%
Avg Implied -
63%
22%
15%
covers Draw + Crusaders FC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Linfield over/under 0.5
Over
88.2%
Under
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5
Over
63.1%
Under
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5
Over
36.1%
Under
63.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 3.5
Over
16.9%
Under
83.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5
Over
61.8%
Under
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5
Over
25.0%
Under
75.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5
Over
7.3%
Under
92.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 3.5
Over
1.7%
Under
98.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Linfield, so a minus line means Linfield give that many goals of a start and Crusaders FC receive them. At -1, Linfield must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Linfield win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Linfield)
Linfield -2
21.3%
Draw -2
19.5%
Crusaders FC +2
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Linfield)
Linfield -1
40.8%
Draw -1
22.6%
Crusaders FC +1
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Linfield)
Linfield +1
85.0%
Draw +1
9.7%
Crusaders FC -1
5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Linfield)
Linfield +2
94.7%
Draw +2
3.9%
Crusaders FC -2
1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Linfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.40
0.76
0.47
0.46
0.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.23
0.54
0.25
0.75
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (17)
0.94
0.29
1.22
0.22
0.62
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crusaders FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.83
0.81
0.81
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.43
0.25
1.25
0.33
1.67
vs Similar (23)
0.83
0.65
1.00
0.67
0.64
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Linfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.60
1.18
0.53
0.85
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.38
0.69
0.38
0.38
0.40
1.20
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.53
1.89
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Crusaders FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Crusaders FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.30
0.56
0.94
0.57
1.71
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.71
0.50
0.75
0.67
0.67
vs Similar (23)
0.57
1.48
0.58
1.00
0.55
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Crusaders FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
94.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
83.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Linfield's squad is €1m more valuable than Crusaders FC's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Linfield and Crusaders FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Crusaders FC have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Crusaders FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Glentoran
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor