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Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2026
Time: 18:45
Final 3-1
Linfield
Linfield
Vs
75%
17%
8%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U
10 Top picks for this game11 Squad value12 Games History13 Overall Statistics14 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Linfield is the clear favourite to win this match, with a 75% probability of a home win, largely due to their strong home form against weaker opponents, having averaged 2.75 goals scored and just 1 conceded. Dungannon Swifts, on the other hand, have struggled on the road against stronger teams, scoring an average of 0.64 goals and conceding 2.86. The expected total goals is 3.3, with the most likely score being 3 goals in total. Linfield's most likely score is a 2-0 win, with a probability of 12%. The model's selection is the Home win, with a 75% probability, and also Over 1.5 goals, with a probability of 84.7%. The model's selection Over 1.5 goals has an edge of 84.7% in its favour. The probabilities for the match result are 75% for a home win, 17% for a draw, and 8% for an away win.

Results analysis

Linfield's win extends their run, coming off a defeat, to four losses in their last five matches. The final score was 3-1, a result that aligns with the actual outcome of the match. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with a pre-match probability of 75%. This favoured outcome landed, and the model's selections largely came in, with "Over 1.5" goals hitting with a 84.7% probability, and "Home win" hitting with a 75.2% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Linfield win✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
16.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts win✗ Miss
8.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D02L31W02L11D31W02L03L12LH·GLE21/02A·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03A·DUN07/04H·LAR11/04H·COL18/04H·CLI25/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.600.972.000.931.201.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.430.710.250.750.670.67
vs Weaker (23)1.961.042.641.001.331.08
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-831W12L01L12L13L05L01L08L31W21WH·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.232.071.731.400.732.73
vs Stronger (19)0.952.471.401.800.443.22
vs Similar (11)1.731.362.400.601.172.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%4%011%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.7%
Under 1.5
15.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.8%
Under 2.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
41.7%
Under 3.5
58.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.5%
No
50.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
12.0%
3-0
10.1%
2-1
9.1%
1-0
8.7%
1-1
7.9%
3-1 ✓
7.6%
4-0
6.4%
4-1
4.8%
Linfield goals ↓
Dungannon Swifts goals →
01234
04.5%2.1%1.1%0.3%0.1%
18.7%7.9%2.7%0.7%0.1%
212%9.1%3.4%0.9%0.2%
310%7.6%2.9%0.7%0.1%
46.4%4.8%1.8%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Dungannon Swifts goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Annagh United
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Ballymena United
1.03
Bangor
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Glenavon FC
0.74
Linfield is 0.50 points better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 1.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Annagh United
2.00
Glentoran
1.92
Larne
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Glenavon FC
0.97
Linfield is 0.47 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.17).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Glenavon FC
1.82
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Annagh United
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Linfield is 1.13 goals better than Dungannon Swifts in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 2.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D01L00D11D01L10W11D01L02L12LH·GLE21/02A·LAR24/02A·CLI01/03H·POR10/03A·CAR20/03A·GLE28/03A·DUN07/04H·LAR11/04H·COL18/04H·CLI25/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.370.800.470.470.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.140.430.000.500.330.33
vs Weaker (23)0.780.351.090.450.500.25
Clean sheet %70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Dungannon Swifts) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W02L01L11D11D03L00D03L11D11DH·COL28/02A·LAR13/03H·BAN21/03H·COL28/03H·LIN07/04A·GLE11/04A·CLI18/04A·LAR25/04H·CAR06/05A·CLI09/05
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.931.000.600.201.27
vs Stronger (19)0.531.110.900.800.111.44
vs Similar (11)0.730.641.200.200.331.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dungannon Swifts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 10. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.7%-------✓ Hit
Home win75.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 11. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
Linfield and Dungannon Swifts have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 12. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
8
LIN wins
0
Draws
0
DS wins

Head-to-head

Linfield vs Dungannon Swifts · H/A from LIN
DateH/AGameScore
07/04/26ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN1-3
17/02/26ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN1-4
10/02/26HLIN Vs Dungannon Swifts6-0
10/08/25HLIN Vs Dungannon Swifts3-0
12/04/25HLIN Vs Dungannon Swifts2-0
24/03/25ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN0-3
17/12/24ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN0-1
17/08/24HLIN Vs Dungannon Swifts3-1

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/04/26HLIN Vs Cliftonville FC1-2
18/04/26HLIN Vs Coleraine FC0-3
11/04/26HLIN Vs Larne0-2
07/04/26ADungannon Swifts Vs LIN1-3
28/03/26AGlentoran Vs LIN1-1
20/03/26ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN2-0
10/03/26HLIN Vs Portadown3-1
01/03/26ACliftonville FC Vs LIN2-0
24/02/26ALarne Vs LIN1-1
21/02/26HLIN Vs Glentoran1-0

Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
09/05/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-2
06/05/26HDS Vs Carrick Rangers3-1
25/04/26ALarne Vs DS8-0
18/04/26ACliftonville FC Vs DS1-0
11/04/26AGlentoran Vs DS5-0
07/04/26HDS Vs Linfield1-3
28/03/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC1-2
21/03/26HDS Vs Bangor0-1
13/03/26ALarne Vs DS2-1
28/02/26HDS Vs Coleraine FC3-1

📊 13. Overall Statistics

Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLL1.60
HomeWWLLL2.16
AwayDLLDW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%68%24%
AVG goals2.382.642.12
Over 1.5 %72%80%64%
Over 2.5 %44%48%40%
Over 3.5 %20%20%20%
Scored1.461.921.00
Conceded0.920.721.12
BTTS40%36%44%
Clean Sheet40%48%32%
Corners---
Cards---
Dungannon Swifts
Dungannon Swifts
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLWW1.32
HomeWLLLW1.60
AwayLLLLW1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%52%32%
AVG goals3.043.043.04
Over 1.5 %82%84%80%
Over 2.5 %54%60%48%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.161.440.88
Conceded1.881.602.16
BTTS42%52%32%
Clean Sheet24%24%24%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 14. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3883
66%
2.2
7326+47
2.6
79%
47%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1121.90.7
-
2Coleraine FCColeraine FC3880
66%
2.1
8337+46
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.21.0
-
3GlentoranGlentoran3877
61%
2.0
7338+35
2.9
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4LinfieldLinfield3969
51%
1.8
6434+30
2.5
72%
49%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.60.9
-
5Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3953
38%
1.4
6561+4
3.2
82%
62%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.6
-
6Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3953
38%
1.4
5661-5
3.0
77%
59%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.41.6
-
7Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts4152
41%
1.3
4882-34
3.2
83%
59%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.22.0
-
8PortadownPortadown3844
34%
1.2
4466-22
2.9
82%
61%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
9Ballymena UnitedBallymena United3839
26%
1.0
4658-12
2.7
89%
47%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
10BangorBangor3839
26%
1.0
4165-24
2.8
79%
53%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.7
-
11Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4039
28%
1.0
5285-33
3.4
85%
65%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.32.1
-
12Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3828
21%
0.7
3769-32
2.8
79%
58%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
13Annagh UnitedAnnagh United23
50%
1.5
44+0
4.0
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.02.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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