Linfield's recent form has been a concern, coming off a defeat to Ballymena United in their last match, where they conceded three goals. However, they've had a decent home record against Glentoran, with whom they've drawn 0.5 goals on average.
Glentoran, on the other hand, have been scoring at a rate of 2.4 goals per match when playing away against weaker opponents. They've conceded 1.4 goals in these matches as well.
The model predicts a home win for Linfield, with a 37% chance of success. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, which it expects to occur 81.5% of the time, with a 10% edge. The expected total number of goals is 3.0, with the most likely score being 1-1, occurring 12.2% of the time. The draw percentage is 26%, while the away win percentage is 36%.
Results analysis
Linfield's win extends their run of form, following a win over Glentoran. The final score was 2-1, confirming the actual result. The model correctly predicted a home win, which came in at 37% pre-match probability. The model's selection of a home win was correct.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a pre-match probability of 81.3%. The model's selection of the most likely score, 2-1, did not come in, as the actual score was 2-1.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Linfield win✓ Hit
36.8%
Avg Implied 32.6% · @ 2.79
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
2.91
Dafabet
2.90
1xBet
2.84
888Sport
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Draw✗ Miss
26.5%
Avg Implied 28.0% · @ 3.25
Edge
-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.47
Dafabet
3.30
Betfair
3.30
Betano
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Glentoran win✗ Miss
36.6%
Avg Implied 39.5% · @ 2.30
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
2.38
Pinnacle
2.36
Betano
2.35
10Bet
2.33
888Sport
2.30
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Linfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.00
1.94
1.06
1.14
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.46
1.23
0.43
1.29
0.50
1.17
vs Weaker (17)
2.41
0.82
3.11
0.89
1.62
0.75
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
1.07
1.94
0.88
2.21
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.89
1.33
1.88
1.25
1.90
1.40
vs Weaker (12)
2.33
0.67
2.00
0.50
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.3%
@ 1.26+8.9%
Under 1.5
18.7%
@ 3.30-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
Under
Pinnacle
3.69
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.40
888Sport
3.40
Marathonbet
3.28
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.8%
@ 1.84+7.8%
Under 2.5
42.2%
@ 1.85-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.89
SBO
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
10Bet
1.90
Bet365
1.90
888Sport
1.85
Betano
1.85
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.4%
@ 3.06+5.6%
Under 3.5
64.6%
@ 1.30-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.28
Bet365
3.25
888Sport
3.20
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.04
Under
Pinnacle
1.33
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Betano
1.32
888Sport
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
61.6%
@ 1.66+6.6%
No
38.4%
@ 2.02-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
888Sport
1.67
William Hil
1.67
No
William Hil
2.10
888Sport
2.10
1xBet
2.06
10Bet
2.05
Marathonbet
2.03
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%@ 5.84+5.0%
2-1 ✓
8.4%@ 9.30+3.8%
1-2
8.4%@ 8.31+3.3%
1-0
6.3%@ 8.56+1.4%
2-2
6.3%@ 11.61+2.7%
0-1
6.3%@ 7.79+0.8%
0-0
6.1%@ 8.89+1.3%
2-0
5.6%@ 13.25+2.4%
Linfield goals ↓
Glentoran goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.1%
6.3%
5.6%
2.8%
1.0%
1
6.3%
12%
8.4%
4.2%
1.6%
2
5.6%
8.4%
6.3%
3.2%
1.2%
3
2.8%
4.2%
3.2%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.1%
1.6%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Glentoran goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.18
Coleraine FC
2.11
Glentoran
2.03
Linfield
1.77
Cliftonville FC
1.36
Carrick Rangers
1.36
Dungannon Swifts
1.27
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.03
Ballymena United
1.03
Crusaders FC
0.97
Limavady United
0.96
Linfield is 0.26 points worse than Glentoran in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Coleraine FC
2.18
Larne
1.92
Glentoran
1.92
Carrick Rangers
1.67
Linfield
1.64
Cliftonville FC
1.44
Crusaders FC
1.30
Ballymena United
1.21
Dungannon Swifts
1.17
Portadown
1.16
Bangor
1.08
Limavady United
1.02
Linfield is 0.28 goals worse than Glentoran in terms of goals scored per game (1.64 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.68
Linfield
0.87
Coleraine FC
0.97
Glentoran
1.00
Ballymena United
1.53
Cliftonville FC
1.56
Carrick Rangers
1.56
Bangor
1.71
Portadown
1.74
Dungannon Swifts
2.00
Crusaders FC
2.12
Limavady United
2.22
Linfield is 0.13 goals better than Glentoran in terms of goals conceded per game (0.87 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Linfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.40
0.75
0.50
0.36
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.15
0.54
0.14
0.86
0.17
0.17
vs Weaker (17)
0.88
0.29
1.22
0.22
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.43
0.62
0.50
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.50
0.38
0.75
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (12)
1.08
0.33
0.88
0.25
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+40pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Linfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.60
1.19
0.56
0.79
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
0.31
0.69
0.29
0.43
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.53
0.53
1.89
0.67
1.12
0.38
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Glentoran) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glentoran
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.63
1.31
0.38
1.29
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.33
0.83
1.50
0.50
1.20
1.10
vs Weaker (12)
1.25
0.33
1.12
0.25
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glentoran over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.3%
1.26
888Sport
1.29
Bet365
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.27
Betano
1.27
+8.9%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
BAN (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
LU (5)
€0m
Linfield and Glentoran have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
BAN (4)
€0m
LU (1)
€0m
Linfield and Glentoran have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
BAN (5)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Glentoran have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
BAN (11)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Glentoran have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
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Coleraine FC
Carrick Rangers
Dungannon Swifts
Crusaders FC
Cliftonville FC
Ballymena United
Larne
Limavady United
Portadown
Bangor