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Linfield vs Larne Result & Analysis

Date: 11/11/2023
Time: 17:30
Final 1-2
Linfield
Linfield
Vs
44%
29%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Linfield win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Larne win✓ Hit
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-631W02L20W20W61W20W21W10W51W30WA·COL02/09A·LAR15/09A·LOU23/09H·CRU26/09H·NEW30/09H·GLE06/10A·CAR13/10A·CLI20/10H·LOU28/10A·NEW04/11
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.230.972.931.071.620.88
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.381.192.001.331.001.10
vs Weaker (14)3.210.713.620.882.670.50
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-440W20W41W01L40W11D00D20W21W21WH·NEW02/09H·LIN15/09H·CAR22/09A·LOU26/09A·GLE30/09H·CRU06/10A·DUN13/10H·CAR20/10A·NEW28/10H·CLI03/11
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.670.902.070.931.270.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)1.061.061.501.000.621.12
vs Weaker (14)2.360.712.710.862.000.57
Clean sheet %47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%9%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
No
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
1-0
10.5%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.4%
0-1
7.5%
1-2 ✓
6.7%
2-2
4.8%
Linfield goals ↓
Larne goals →
01234
09.5%7.5%4.7%1.7%0.4%
110%14%6.7%2.4%0.6%
28.4%9.0%4.8%1.7%0.5%
34.0%4.3%2.3%0.8%0.2%
41.4%1.5%0.8%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Linfield goals (down), columns = Larne goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Linfield is 0.13 points worse than Larne in terms of average points per game (2.24 vs 2.37).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Linfield is 0.08 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals scored per game (2.16 vs 2.24).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Linfield is 0.50 goals worse than Larne in terms of goals conceded per game (1.05 vs 0.55).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L10W20W40W20W00D00D11D00DA·COL02/09A·LAR15/09A·LOU23/09H·CRU26/09H·NEW30/09H·GLE06/10A·CAR13/10A·CLI20/10H·LOU28/10A·NEW04/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.331.360.430.440.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.310.830.330.300.30
vs Weaker (14)1.290.361.750.500.670.17
Clean sheet %73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W10W30W00D00D00D00D10W00D20WH·NEW02/09H·LIN15/09H·CAR22/09A·LOU26/09A·GLE30/09H·CRU06/10A·DUN13/10H·CAR20/10A·NEW28/10H·CLI03/11
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.271.070.270.270.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.560.440.880.380.250.50
vs Weaker (14)0.790.071.290.140.290.00
Clean sheet %80% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LinfieldLinfield

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L10W00D21W00D21W10W40W30WA·COL02/09A·LAR15/09A·LOU23/09H·CRU26/09H·NEW30/09H·GLE06/10A·CAR13/10A·CLI20/10H·LOU28/10A·NEW04/11
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.370.631.570.641.190.62
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.880.881.171.000.700.80
vs Weaker (14)1.930.361.880.382.000.33
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Larne) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

LarneLarne

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W10W11D01L40W11D00D10W21W01LH·NEW02/09H·LIN15/09H·CAR22/09A·LOU26/09A·GLE30/09H·CRU06/10A·DUN13/10H·CAR20/10A·NEW28/10H·CLI03/11
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.631.000.671.000.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (16)0.500.620.620.620.380.62
vs Weaker (14)1.570.641.430.711.710.57
Clean sheet %57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Linfield) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Linfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Linfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Larne over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards84.0%--------
Under 3.575.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners72.8%--------
Over 1.572.5%-------✓ Hit

ðŸŽ― 13. Player market rates

Larne · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Chris Gallagher20%
Tomas Cosgrove20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Sean Graham60%
Tomas Cosgrove40%
Cian Bolger25%
Andy Ryan20%
Sam Todd20%
Levi Ives20%
Chris Gallagher20%
Rohan Ferguson17%
Shaun Want17%
Mark Randall17%
Joe Thomson0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sean Graham20%
Joe Thomson17%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Andy Ryan0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Andy Ryan20%
Cian Bolger0%
Rohan Ferguson0%
Shaun Want0%
Joe Thomson0%
Sam Todd0%
Mark Randall0%
Levi Ives0%
Sean Graham0%
Chris Gallagher0%
Aaron Donnelly0%
Tomas Cosgrove0%
Jordan McEneff0%
Conor McKendry0%
Matthew Lusty0%
Dylan Sloan0%
Benji Magee0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Linfield's squad is €1m less valuable than Larne's (€2m vs €4m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Linfield and Larne have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Linfield and Larne have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Linfield and Larne have a similar defence value (both €1m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
1
LIN wins
2
Draws
2
LAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Linfield vs Larne · H/A from LIN
DateH/AGameScore
15/09/23ALarne Vs LIN2-0
21/04/23ALarne Vs LIN1-1
07/03/23ALarne Vs LIN0-0
22/11/22HLIN Vs Larne1-0
22/10/22HLIN Vs Larne2-4

LinfieldLinfield

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
04/11/23ANewry City AFC Vs LIN0-3
28/10/23HLIN Vs Loughgall5-1
20/10/23ACliftonville FC Vs LIN0-1
13/10/23ACarrick Rangers Vs LIN1-2
06/10/23HLIN Vs Glentoran2-0
30/09/23HLIN Vs Newry City AFC6-1
26/09/23HLIN Vs Crusaders FC2-0
23/09/23ALoughgall Vs LIN0-2
15/09/23ALarne Vs LIN2-0
02/09/23AColeraine FC Vs LIN1-3

LarneLarne

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/11/23HLAR Vs Cliftonville FC2-1
28/10/23ANewry City AFC Vs LAR1-2
20/10/23HLAR Vs Carrick Rangers2-0
13/10/23ADungannon Swifts Vs LAR0-0
06/10/23HLAR Vs Crusaders FC1-1
30/09/23AGlenavon FC Vs LAR0-4
26/09/23ALoughgall Vs LAR1-0
22/09/23HLAR Vs Carrick Rangers4-1
15/09/23HLAR Vs Linfield2-0
02/09/23HLAR Vs Newry City AFC4-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Linfield
Linfield
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 9 Wins / 0 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWWW2.14
HomeDWWWW2.19
AwayLWWWW2.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %66%65%67%
AVG goals3.063.312.79
Over 1.5 %76%77%75%
Over 2.5 %52%58%46%
Over 3.5 %34%42%25%
Scored2.142.311.96
Conceded0.921.000.83
BTTS40%46%33%
Clean Sheet48%50%46%
Corners13.0014.0012.00
Cards7.337.507.00
Larne
Larne
Northern-Ireland: Premiership
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW2.02
HomeWWDWW2.28
AwayDLWDW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%68%52%
AVG goals2.562.802.32
Over 1.5 %74%84%64%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %24%28%20%
Scored1.762.081.44
Conceded0.800.720.88
BTTS32%40%24%
Clean Sheet54%56%52%
Corners12.0014.0010.00
Cards5.006.503.50

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1LarneLarne3890
71%
2.4
8521+64
2.8
79%
50%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
1122.20.6
-
2LinfieldLinfield3885
68%
2.2
8240+42
3.2
87%
61%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0112.21.1
-
3Cliftonville FCCliftonville FC3875
61%
2.0
8043+37
3.2
87%
68%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.11.1
-
4Crusaders FCCrusaders FC4070
52%
1.8
6746+21
2.8
82%
50%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.71.1
-
5GlentoranGlentoran3960
44%
1.5
7446+28
3.1
79%
67%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.91.2
-
6Carrick RangersCarrick Rangers3950
38%
1.3
5575-20
3.3
87%
64%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.41.9
-
7Coleraine FCColeraine FC4049
32%
1.2
5272-20
3.1
90%
62%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.31.8
-
8Dungannon SwiftsDungannon Swifts3847
34%
1.2
6469-5
3.5
89%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
0111.71.8
-
9LoughgallLoughgall3845
34%
1.2
6068-8
3.4
84%
68%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
10Glenavon FCGlenavon FC3837
29%
1.0
4570-25
3.0
76%
58%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.21.8
-
11Ballymena UnitedBallymena United4031
22%
0.8
3171-40
2.5
68%
42%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.81.8
-
12Newry City AFCNewry City AFC3817
11%
0.4
2699-73
3.3
82%
63%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.72.6
-
13InstituteInstitute23
50%
1.5
12-1
1.5
50%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.51.0
-
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →

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