Liria Prizren’s recent draw against Trepça’89 suggests a cautious start, but the model favours a home win, with a 58% chance of victory, 22% for a draw, and 19% for Suhareka. The expected total of 3.3 goals points to a lively encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 10% probability. Liria’s home form shows they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.82 conceded against similar opposition, while Suhareka, on the road, averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.91 conceded. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals carries an 85.5% probability, reflecting the high attacking output projected. With Liria’s stronger defensive record at home and Suhareka’s recent defeat, the odds tilt toward a decisive Liria victory. The model’s picks remain focused on the match outcome and total goals, offering a clear picture of the expected high-scoring, home-side dominated game.
Results analysis
The updated form storyline shows Liria Prizren coming off a draw, while Suhareka returns after a defeat, setting the stage for a competitive match. The final score was 4-2, a home win that matched the model’s pick of a home victory with a 58 % probability, confirming the model’s prediction. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals, with an 85.5 % probability, hit as the match produced six goals. Every suggested pick was settled: Over 1.5 hit. The model’s favourite result landed, and the selections largely came in, underscoring the accuracy of the prediction.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Liria Prizren win✓ Hit
58.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Suhareka win✗ Miss
19.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Liria Prizren
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.77
1.81
0.69
1.29
0.86
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.81
0.90
2.00
0.82
1.60
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
2.00
0.67
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suhareka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.70
1.47
1.40
1.67
2.00
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
2.25
0.50
2.00
2.00
2.50
vs Similar (21)
1.67
1.62
1.80
1.30
1.55
1.91
vs Weaker (5)
1.40
1.60
1.00
1.33
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Liria Prizren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.5%
Under 1.5
14.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
64.9%
Under 2.5
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
42.8%
Under 3.5
57.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
7.0%
1-0
6.7%
3-0
5.9%
2-2
5.8%
1-2
5.4%
Liria Prizren goals ↓
Suhareka goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.5%
3.3%
2.5%
1.0%
0.3%
1
6.7%
10.0%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
2
8.2%
9.8%
5.8%
2.3%
0.7%
3
5.9%
7.0%
4.2%
1.6%
0.5%
4
3.2%
3.8%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Liria Prizren goals (down), columns = Suhareka goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Vushtrria
2.21
Feronikeli
2.18
Dinamo Ferizaj
2.09
Liria Prizren
2.09
Trepça'89
2.06
Vëllaznimi
2.06
Ramiz Sadiku
1.47
Suhareka
1.29
Tefik Canga
1.18
2 Korriku
1.15
FC Besa Peja
1.06
Vjosa
1.03
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.00
Kika
0.97
Rilindja 1974
0.94
Istogu
0.94
KEK-u
0.64
Prizreni
0.59
Liria Prizren is 0.79 points better than Suhareka in terms of average points per game (2.09 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Trepça'89
2.12
Vushtrria
1.82
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.79
Suhareka
1.76
Liria Prizren
1.76
Feronikeli
1.74
Vëllaznimi
1.71
2 Korriku
1.53
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.44
Tefik Canga
1.41
Istogu
1.38
FC Besa Peja
1.18
Ramiz Sadiku
1.15
Vjosa
1.15
Rilindja 1974
1.00
Prizreni
0.82
KEK-u
0.76
Kika
0.74
Liria Prizren and Suhareka are level in goals scored per game (both 1.76).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Feronikeli
0.65
Vushtrria
0.76
Ramiz Sadiku
0.85
Liria Prizren
0.85
Vëllaznimi
0.94
Trepça'89
0.97
Dinamo Ferizaj
1.15
Kika
1.26
FC Besa Peja
1.58
Tefik Canga
1.59
Istogu
1.76
Suhareka
1.79
Rilindja 1974
1.79
Vjosa
1.79
Trepça Mitrovicë
1.82
2 Korriku
1.88
KEK-u
1.91
Prizreni
1.94
Liria Prizren is 0.94 goals better than Suhareka in terms of goals conceded per game (0.85 vs 1.79).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Liria Prizren
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.37
0.56
0.31
0.64
0.43
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (21)
0.81
0.48
0.73
0.45
0.90
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suhareka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.60
0.69
0.38
0.57
0.86
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
0.80
0.67
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.65
0.70
0.30
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
0.20
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Liria Prizren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Liria Prizren over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Liria Prizren
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.37
1.25
0.38
0.71
0.36
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (21)
1.05
0.38
1.27
0.36
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (6)
1.17
0.33
1.67
0.67
0.67
0.00
Clean sheet %
67% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Suhareka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Suhareka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.07
1.00
1.00
1.21
1.14
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.40
0.33
1.33
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (20)
1.35
0.90
1.40
0.90
1.30
0.90
vs Weaker (5)
0.60
1.40
0.33
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Liria Prizren) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Liria Prizren over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Liria Prizren over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Suhareka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kosovo: Liga E Pare 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kosovo: Liga E Pare stats & trends →