Llandudno are tipped to lift the trophy at home, with a 44% chance of victory, 26% for a draw and 30% for Cardiff MET to win. The match is expected to see about 3.1 goals, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12% probability. Llandudno have averaged 2.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against similar opposition, while Cardiff MET have managed 1.0 goal scored and 1.18 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.6%), Under 6.5 (96.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.9%), Under 5.5 (90.9%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.8%), Home +2 handicap (86.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (83.9%) and Over 1.5 (82.2%). The home side’s recent form shows a win-run after a defeat, while the visitors are on a two-game winning streak.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Llandudno win
44.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET win
29.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Llandudno
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.03
3.50
0.71
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (18)
2.56
0.89
3.78
0.67
1.33
1.11
vs Similar (9)
2.44
1.00
2.50
1.00
2.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.40
1.94
1.69
1.50
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
1.00
3.00
3.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.60
1.36
2.07
1.50
1.00
1.18
vs Weaker (2)
3.50
0.00
-
-
3.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.5%
Under 2.5
40.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
37.1%
Under 3.5
62.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.2%
No
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.8%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.3%
1-0
6.8%
2-0
6.8%
2-2
6.3%
0-0
5.7%
3-1
5.3%
Llandudno goals ↓
Cardiff MET goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
5.2%
4.3%
1.9%
0.7%
1
6.8%
12%
7.3%
3.3%
1.1%
2
6.8%
9.2%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.9%
5.3%
3.6%
1.6%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Llandudno goals (down), columns = Cardiff MET goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Llandudno and Cardiff MET are level in average points per game (both 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Llandudno is 0.50 goals worse than Cardiff MET in terms of goals scored per game (2.17 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Llandudno and Cardiff MET are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Llandudno or Draw
70.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Llandudno + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Llandudno or Cardiff MET
74.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Llandudno + Cardiff MET
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cardiff MET
55.1%
Avg Implied -
45%
26%
29%
covers Draw + Cardiff MET
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Llandudno over/under 0.5
Over
82.1%
Under
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5
Over
51.3%
Under
48.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5
Over
24.8%
Under
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 3.5
Over
9.6%
Under
90.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 3.5
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Llandudno, so a minus line means Llandudno give that many goals of a start and Cardiff MET receive them. At -1, Llandudno must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Llandudno win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Llandudno)
Llandudno -2
10.5%
Draw -2
13.9%
Cardiff MET +2
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Llandudno)
Llandudno -1
24.4%
Draw -1
20.5%
Cardiff MET +1
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Llandudno)
Llandudno +1
70.6%
Draw +1
16.0%
Cardiff MET -1
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Llandudno)
Llandudno +2
86.5%
Draw +2
8.7%
Cardiff MET -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Llandudno
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.33
1.21
0.50
0.94
0.19
vs Stronger (18)
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.44
0.33
0.22
vs Similar (9)
1.56
0.33
0.75
0.75
2.20
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.56
0.62
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (25)
0.52
0.60
0.64
0.57
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
0.00
-
-
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Llandudno
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.70
2.29
0.21
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (18)
1.72
0.56
2.44
0.22
1.00
0.89
vs Similar (9)
0.89
0.67
1.75
0.25
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cardiff MET) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cardiff MET
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.83
1.38
1.06
0.86
0.57
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (25)
1.08
0.76
1.43
0.93
0.64
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cardiff MET over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
90.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Llandudno and Cardiff MET have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Llandudno and Cardiff MET have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Llandudno and Cardiff MET have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Llandudno and Cardiff MET have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →