Llandudno is the clear favourite to win this match, with an 87% chance of victory at home. The model's high rating is largely due to Holywell's poor away form, conceding 1.87 goals per game against weaker opponents. Llandudno's strong home form, scoring 2 goals per game, also gives them an edge. The expected total number of goals is 5.2, with the most likely score being 4-1, occurring 7.3% of the time.
Holywell's away scoring has averaged 1.73 goals per game, but they have struggled to find the net in recent matches, including a 1-3 defeat to GAP Connah S Quay FC. The model picks Llandudno to win, with a 86.5% probability of success. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 (96.9%), Over 2.5 (89.4%), Home win (86.5%), and Over 3.5 (76.7%). Home win is the most likely result, with a 87% chance of victory. The home win percentage is 87%, the draw percentage is 8%, and the away win percentage is 5%.
Results analysis
The win extends Llandudno's 3-game winning run, with the latest success coming against Holywell. The final score was 3-1, confirming the actual result as a home win. The Pythia prediction model correctly picked Llandudno to win, with a pre-match probability of 87%. The model's selection of Llandudno to win was correct.
The model's selection of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 96.9%. The selection of Home win also hit, with a probability of 86.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Llandudno win✓ Hit
86.5%
Avg Implied 68.0% · @ 1.33
Edge
+18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
Draw✗ Miss
8.4%
Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.90
Edge
-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Pinnacle
5.02
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Holywell win✗ Miss
5.1%
Avg Implied 13.5% · @ 6.66
Edge
-8.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
7.36
Marathonbet
7.10
888Sport
7.00
William Hil
7.00
Dafabet
7.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Llandudno
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.63
0.90
3.40
0.60
1.87
1.20
vs Stronger (18)
2.78
0.72
3.60
0.60
1.75
0.88
vs Similar (9)
2.44
0.89
2.50
0.75
2.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
2.00
5.00
0.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.50
1.67
3.27
1.33
1.73
2.00
vs Stronger (12)
2.58
1.33
3.17
0.83
2.00
1.83
vs Similar (14)
3.00
1.93
4.14
1.57
1.86
2.29
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.75
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 5.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (41%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
96.9%
@ 1.10+14.2%
Under 1.5
3.1%
@ 5.29-14.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Under
Betfair
6.50
888Sport
6.00
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.45
Marathonbet
5.45
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
89.4%
@ 1.39+23.8%
Under 2.5
10.6%
@ 2.65-23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.48
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
888Sport
1.40
10Bet
1.40
Under
Betfair
2.88
888Sport
2.75
Unibet
2.75
10Bet
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
76.7%
@ 2.01+30.8%
Under 3.5
23.3%
@ 1.71-30.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.20
10Bet
2.05
SBO
2.05
Betano
2.05
888Sport
2.05
Under
Betfair
1.80
Pinnacle
1.73
888Sport
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.9%
@ 1.63+10.8%
No
33.1%
@ 2.09-10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.74
Bet365
1.73
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
1xBet
1.63
No
Unibet
2.20
Betfair
2.20
888Sport
2.15
William Hil
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
4-1
7.3%@ 14.27+4.2%
3-1 ✓
7.1%@ 9.35+2.3%
4-0
6.5%@ 13.84+3.2%
3-0
6.3%@ 9.15+1.4%
5-1
6.0%@ 26.00+4.3%
5-0
5.3%@ 24.56+3.5%
2-1
5.2%@ 7.73-0.6%
2-0
4.6%@ 7.66-1.3%
Llandudno goals ↓
Holywell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0.8%
0.4%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
1
2.0%
2.8%
1.4%
0.5%
0.2%
2
4.6%
5.2%
2.9%
1.1%
0.3%
3
6.3%
7.1%
4.0%
1.5%
0.4%
4
6.5%
7.3%
4.1%
1.6%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Llandudno goals (down), columns = Holywell goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.60
Llandudno
2.40
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.40
Caernarfon Town
2.40
Penybont
2.20
Cardiff MET
1.80
Colwyn Bay
1.40
Cambrian & Clydach
1.40
Briton Ferry
1.40
Airbus UK
1.20
Ammanford AFC
0.40
Flint Town United
0.20
Trefelin
0.20
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.00
Holywell
0.00
Llandudno is 2.40 points better than Holywell in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
GAP Connah S Quay FC
3.00
The New Saints
2.60
Llandudno
2.60
Barry Town
2.60
Caernarfon Town
2.60
Cardiff MET
2.20
Penybont
1.60
Holywell
1.40
Colwyn Bay
1.20
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Airbus UK
1.00
Flint Town United
1.00
Ammanford AFC
0.80
Briton Ferry
0.80
Trefelin
0.20
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.00
Llandudno is 1.20 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals scored per game (2.60 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.20
Penybont
0.60
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.60
Llandudno
1.00
Cambrian & Clydach
1.20
Barry Town
1.20
Briton Ferry
1.20
Caernarfon Town
1.20
Airbus UK
1.40
Cardiff MET
1.40
Ammanford AFC
1.80
Flint Town United
1.80
Colwyn Bay
2.00
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.20
Trefelin
3.00
Holywell
4.00
Llandudno is 3.00 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 4.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Llandudno
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.27
1.33
0.40
1.07
0.13
vs Stronger (18)
1.00
0.28
1.40
0.40
0.50
0.12
vs Similar (9)
1.67
0.22
1.00
0.50
2.20
0.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
77% (+49pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.73
1.93
0.60
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
1.25
0.42
1.83
0.00
0.67
0.83
vs Similar (14)
1.71
1.07
2.57
1.00
0.86
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Llandudno
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
0.63
2.07
0.20
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (18)
1.78
0.44
2.20
0.20
1.25
0.75
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.67
1.50
0.25
0.20
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
1.67
3.00
0.00
0.50
2.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.93
1.33
0.73
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (12)
1.33
0.92
1.33
0.83
1.33
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.86
1.57
0.57
1.00
1.14
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Llandudno) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Llandudno over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Llandudno over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
96.9%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.12
888Sport
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+14.2%
✓ Hit
Home win
86.5%
1.33
Dafabet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
888Sport
1.36
Superbet
1.36
Betano
1.35
+18.5%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Llandudno and Holywell have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Llandudno and Holywell have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Llandudno and Holywell have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Llandudno and Holywell have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →