Llanelli AFC’s recent form, still recovering from a 0-4 loss, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, while Caerau (Ely) comes off a 3-2 win. The model favours a home win, with a 61% chance, a 18% draw probability, and a 21% away win probability. The expected total goals is 4.7, and the most likely total is 6 + goals at a 33% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Llanelli, with a 6.9% probability. Home side Llanelli averages 4.0 goals scored and 3.0 conceded against stronger opponents at home, whereas Caerau (Ely) averages 2.5 goals scored and 4.0 conceded away against weaker opposition. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 95.3%, Over 2.5 goals at 84.7%, and BTTS Yes at 78.9%, with the Over 1.5 selection having an edge of 95.3%.
Llanelli AFC’s 4-0 triumph over Caerau (Ely) extended a shaky run, coming off a defeat to Aberystwyth Town, while the away side, fresh from a win, fell short. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 61%, and the call was correct. The suggested picks were largely accurate: Over 1.5 (95.3%) hit, Over 2.5 (84.7%) hit, but BTTS Yes (78.9%) missed as Caerau failed to score. The predicted most likely total of 6+ (33%) was not reached, yet the final score of 4-0 confirmed the home advantage and the model’s overall assessment.
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.60 | 1.27 | 2.46 | 1.54 | 2.71 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 3.00 | 1.67 | 4.00 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (23) | 2.70 | 1.17 | 2.60 | 1.10 | 2.77 | 1.23 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.27 | 2.09 | 2.14 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 2.60 | 1.60 | 2.67 | 1.33 | 2.50 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 2.00 | 2.50 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 4.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerau (Ely) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 2.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 3.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 1.6% |
| 3 | 3.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 2.8% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.47 | 0.85 | 0.54 | 1.18 | 0.41 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 0.67 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.13 | 0.39 | 1.00 | 0.30 | 1.23 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 67% (+45pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.55 | 0.91 | 0.43 | 0.57 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 0.60 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 55% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 0.80 | 1.62 | 1.00 | 1.53 | 0.65 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 2.33 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.57 | 0.78 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.54 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.73 | 1.18 | 1.71 | 1.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (5) | 2.00 | 0.80 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 36% (+14pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 95.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 84.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| BTTS Yes | 78.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/23 | A | 1-2 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/23 | A | 1-2 | |
| 20/10/23 | H | 9-0 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 29/09/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/09/23 | A | 1-5 | |
| 08/09/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 28/08/23 | A | 2-5 | |
| 18/08/23 | H | 4-3 | |
| 12/08/23 | A | 1-3 | |
| 08/08/23 | H | 4-1 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/10/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 21/10/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 06/10/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 30/09/23 | A | 1-4 | |
| 22/09/23 | H | 2-4 | |
| 08/09/23 | H | 3-0 | |
| 28/08/23 | A | 5-3 | |
| 18/08/23 | H | 1-3 | |
| 12/08/23 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/08/23 | A | 3-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Holywell | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 79 | 17 | +62 | 3.2 | 90% | 70% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.6 | - |
| 2 | Flint Town United | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 94 | 30 | +64 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Airbus UK | 30 | 74 | 77% | 2.5 | 84 | 28 | +56 | 3.7 | 93% | 80% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | - |
| 4 | Briton Ferry | 30 | 71 | 77% | 2.4 | 86 | 39 | +47 | 4.2 | 97% | 87% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 67% | 2.1 | 80 | 40 | +40 | 4.0 | 97% | 83% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 57 | 57% | 1.9 | 60 | 42 | +18 | 3.4 | 77% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 55 | 60% | 1.8 | 66 | 50 | +16 | 3.9 | 90% | 83% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.7 | - |
| 8 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 53 | 57% | 1.8 | 62 | 55 | +7 | 3.9 | 90% | 87% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.8 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 47% | 1.7 | 60 | 37 | +23 | 3.2 | 87% | 50% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 10 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 70 | 60 | +10 | 4.3 | 93% | 87% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 47 | 40% | 1.6 | 50 | 39 | +11 | 3.0 | 77% | 47% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 | Afan Lido | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 93% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 13 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 68 | 68 | +0 | 4.5 | 97% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.3 | - |
| 14 | Goytre United | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 59 | -1 | 3.9 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 58 | 52 | +6 | 3.7 | 93% | 77% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | - |
| 16 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 42 | 40% | 1.4 | 69 | 64 | +5 | 4.4 | 97% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 17 | Caersws | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 60 | 52 | +8 | 3.7 | 93% | 83% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 41 | 37% | 1.4 | 46 | 41 | +5 | 2.9 | 87% | 57% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.4 | - |
| 19 | Guilsfield | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 46 | +2 | 3.1 | 87% | 67% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.5 | - |
| 20 | Trefelin | 30 | 38 | 33% | 1.3 | 47 | 62 | -15 | 3.6 | 90% | 67% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.1 | - |
| 21 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 3.4 | 80% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Buckley Town | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 54 | 60 | -6 | 3.8 | 90% | 83% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.0 | - |
| 23 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 35 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 3.3 | 73% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Taffs Well | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 87% | 57% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 30 | 32 | 27% | 1.1 | 52 | 70 | -18 | 4.1 | 90% | 77% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Llandudno | 30 | 31 | 33% | 1.0 | 59 | 80 | -21 | 4.6 | 97% | 93% | 73% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.7 | - |
| 27 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 26 | 23% | 0.9 | 39 | 74 | -35 | 3.8 | 90% | 80% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.5 | - |
| 28 | Porthmadog | 30 | 22 | 20% | 0.7 | 35 | 66 | -31 | 3.4 | 87% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 29 | Abertillery Bluebirds | 30 | 18 | 13% | 0.6 | 42 | 90 | -48 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Chirk AAA | 30 | 13 | 10% | 0.4 | 32 | 82 | -50 | 3.8 | 87% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.7 | - |
| 31 | Llanidloes Town | 30 | 9 | 7% | 0.3 | 25 | 106 | -81 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Abergavenny Town | 30 | 8 | 7% | 0.3 | 20 | 84 | -64 | 3.5 | 87% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | - |