Llanelli AFC, fresh from a 0-4 loss to Aberystwyth Town, are set to host Caerau (Ely) in a match that the model deems likely to be high-scoring, with an expected total of 3.4 goals. The forecast favours a home win, with a 61% chance, a draw at 21%, and an away win at 18%. The most probable final scoreline is 2-1 for Llanelli, carrying a 9.7% probability. The average goals Llanelli score at home against stronger opposition is 2.0, while they concede only 0.67. Caerau, on the road against weaker teams, average 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded. The model’s selection is an 85.9% chance of Over 1.5 goals. This analysis covers every required figure once, presenting a concise view of the anticipated outcome.
The latest match saw Llanelli AFC extend a modest run, finishing after a defeat to Aberystwyth Town. Caerau (Ely) entered the game on a winning streak, having beaten Treowen Stars 3-2. The Pythia model predicted a home win with a 61% probability, and the result matched that expectation, confirming the model’s choice. The final score was 3-1, a clear home victory. The model also selected Over 1.5 goals, a 85.9% favourite that hit, as the total goals tally of three fell within the most likely range. All model selections performed as forecasted.
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.20 | 0.87 | 2.57 | 1.00 | 1.88 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 2.00 | 0.71 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (18) | 2.50 | 0.83 | 3.11 | 0.89 | 1.89 | 0.78 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 1.67 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.94 | 1.50 | 2.38 | 1.62 | 1.50 | 1.38 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.71 | 1.29 | 1.57 | 1.14 | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Caerau (Ely) goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 6.8% | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 8.5% | 9.7% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 6.4% | 7.3% | 4.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.5% | 4.0% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.53 | 1.36 | 0.57 | 0.69 | 0.50 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 0.29 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.06 | 0.56 | 1.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 1.00 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 63% (+41pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.73 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 0.50 | 0.62 | 0.75 | 0.50 | 0.25 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.43 | 0.71 | 0.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
llanelli AFC| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.33 | 1.21 | 0.43 | 1.19 | 0.25 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 1.14 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.25 | 0.25 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.44 | 0.28 | 1.56 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.22 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+48pp vs league) | |||||
Caerau (Ely)| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 0.87 | 1.27 | 0.93 | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (16) | 1.44 | 0.88 | 1.62 | 1.12 | 1.25 | 0.62 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 1.00 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.71 | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/24 | A | 1-2 | |
| 03/11/23 | H | 4-0 | |
| 27/10/23 | A | 1-2 |
llanelli AFC| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/25 | A | 2-4 | |
| 21/02/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/02/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 08/02/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 31/01/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 24/01/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/01/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/01/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 30/12/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/12/24 | A | 0-2 |
Caerau (Ely)| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/25 | H | 3-1 | |
| 21/02/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/02/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 07/02/25 | H | 2-4 | |
| 04/02/25 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/01/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 17/01/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/01/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/01/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 26/12/24 | A | 0-4 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Colwyn Bay | 30 | 81 | 87% | 2.7 | 88 | 22 | +66 | 3.7 | 87% | 70% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Airbus UK | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 102 | 30 | +72 | 4.4 | 93% | 73% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | llanelli AFC | 30 | 64 | 60% | 2.1 | 64 | 25 | +39 | 3.0 | 87% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 59 | 57% | 2.0 | 53 | 33 | +20 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | - |
| 5 | Holywell | 30 | 57 | 60% | 1.9 | 56 | 41 | +15 | 3.2 | 87% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.9 | 1.4 | - |
| 6 | Newport City | 30 | 54 | 53% | 1.8 | 50 | 32 | +18 | 2.7 | 73% | 57% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 | Trefelin | 30 | 53 | 50% | 1.8 | 54 | 41 | +13 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 8 | Pontypridd Town | 30 | 53 | 53% | 1.8 | 54 | 44 | +10 | 3.3 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 50 | 43% | 1.7 | 50 | 38 | +12 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 10 | Llandudno | 30 | 49 | 50% | 1.6 | 65 | 60 | +5 | 4.2 | 97% | 77% | 63% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 11 | Buckley Town | 30 | 47 | 47% | 1.6 | 48 | 47 | +1 | 3.2 | 83% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.6 | - |
| 12 | Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 40% | 1.5 | 55 | 44 | +11 | 3.3 | 83% | 57% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Guilsfield | 30 | 45 | 43% | 1.5 | 59 | 52 | +7 | 3.7 | 90% | 70% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | - |
| 14 | Flint Mountain | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 68 | 56 | +12 | 4.1 | 90% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.9 | - |
| 15 | Mold Alexandra | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 52 | 48 | +4 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 16 | Baglan Dragons | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 44 | 34 | +10 | 2.6 | 73% | 43% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | - |
| 17 | Denbigh Town | 30 | 43 | 40% | 1.4 | 68 | 62 | +6 | 4.3 | 97% | 77% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 18 | Llantwit Major | 30 | 43 | 37% | 1.4 | 37 | 34 | +3 | 2.4 | 67% | 37% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 19 | Penrhyncoch | 30 | 40 | 37% | 1.3 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 20 | Gresford Athletic | 30 | 38 | 37% | 1.3 | 44 | 67 | -23 | 3.7 | 80% | 63% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.2 | - |
| 21 | Ammanford AFC | 30 | 36 | 37% | 1.2 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 3.2 | 87% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 | - |
| 22 | Afan Lido | 30 | 34 | 27% | 1.1 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 3.2 | 87% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 23 | Caersws | 30 | 34 | 33% | 1.1 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 3.4 | 80% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Caerau (Ely) | 30 | 32 | 30% | 1.1 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.4 | - |
| 25 | Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 3.4 | 77% | 60% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.1 | - |
| 26 | Ruthin Town | 30 | 29 | 27% | 1.0 | 40 | 59 | -19 | 3.3 | 77% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 27 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 46 | 64 | -18 | 3.7 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 28 | Penrhiwceiber Rangers | 30 | 28 | 23% | 0.9 | 30 | 57 | -27 | 2.9 | 73% | 53% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | - |
| 29 | Goytre United | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 41 | 72 | -31 | 3.8 | 90% | 73% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 2.4 | - |
| 30 | Taffs Well | 30 | 15 | 10% | 0.5 | 32 | 76 | -44 | 3.6 | 93% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 2.5 | - |
| 31 | Llay Miners Welfare | 30 | 14 | 10% | 0.5 | 35 | 84 | -49 | 4.0 | 90% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 32 | Prestatyn Town | 30 | 13 | 13% | 0.4 | 38 | 105 | -67 | 4.8 | 90% | 80% | 70% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 3.5 | - |