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llanelli AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 26/09/2025
Time: 18:45
Final 1-0
llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC
Vs
28%
30%
41%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

llanelli AFC win✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC win✗ Miss
41.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W02L16L24L02L01L05L06L00D21WH·TRE12/04H·BAR08/08A·CAE16/08H·BRI22/08A·PEN25/08H·BAL30/08H·FLI06/09A·THE13/09H·COL20/09A·BRI23/09← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.371.731.201.401.53
vs Stronger (6)1.671.502.670.670.672.33
vs Similar (20)1.501.501.501.501.501.50
vs Weaker (4)1.750.501.500.502.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L23L01L22D10W11D05L03L13L23LA·FLO08/07H·FLO17/07H·PEN08/08H·CAR22/08A·BRI25/08H·CAE30/08A·THE06/09A·COL13/09H·GAP20/09H·BAR23/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.131.571.501.560.711.57
vs Stronger (6)1.003.331.503.000.753.50
vs Similar (23)1.171.131.501.360.670.78
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%221%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
69.4%
Under 1.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
41.8%
Under 2.5
58.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
21.2%
Under 3.5
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
10.8%
1-0 ✓
8.6%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
8.2%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.2%
llanelli AFC goals ↓
Haverfordwest County AFC goals →
01234
011%11%8.2%3.6%1.2%
18.6%14%8.5%3.7%1.2%
25.2%6.8%4.4%1.9%0.6%
31.8%2.4%1.5%0.7%0.2%
40.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = llanelli AFC goals (down), columns = Haverfordwest County AFC goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
The New Saints
2.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.81
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Barry Town
1.42
Briton Ferry
1.41
Caernarfon Town
1.41
Colwyn Bay
1.39
Penybont
1.32
Cardiff MET
1.19
Flint Town United
1.09
Bala Town
1.00
llanelli AFC
0.41
llanelli AFC is 1.03 points worse than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of average points per game (0.41 vs 1.44).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
The New Saints
2.53
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.91
Caernarfon Town
1.75
Flint Town United
1.50
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.44
Cardiff MET
1.34
Barry Town
1.33
Colwyn Bay
1.24
Penybont
1.21
Bala Town
1.03
llanelli AFC
0.53
llanelli AFC is 0.91 goals worse than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals scored per game (0.53 vs 1.44).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.78
Barry Town
1.03
Colwyn Bay
1.12
GAP Connah S Quay FC
1.19
Haverfordwest County AFC
1.35
Bala Town
1.41
Penybont
1.44
Briton Ferry
1.47
Caernarfon Town
1.47
Cardiff MET
1.59
Flint Town United
1.84
llanelli AFC
2.56
llanelli AFC is 1.21 goals worse than Haverfordwest County AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.56 vs 1.35).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W02L02L22D02L01L04L02L00D01LH·TRE12/04H·BAR08/08A·CAE16/08H·BRI22/08A·PEN25/08H·BAL30/08H·FLI06/09A·THE13/09H·COL20/09A·BRI23/09← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.730.870.800.330.67
vs Stronger (6)0.500.331.000.000.000.67
vs Similar (20)0.550.950.901.100.200.80
vs Weaker (4)1.000.250.500.501.500.00
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D22D00D20W00D10W01L03L11D00DA·FLO08/07H·FLO17/07H·PEN08/08H·CAR22/08A·BRI25/08H·CAE30/08A·THE06/09A·COL13/09H·GAP20/09H·BAR23/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.630.750.440.500.86
vs Stronger (6)0.831.331.001.000.751.50
vs Similar (23)0.570.480.710.360.330.67
vs Weaker (1)1.000.00--1.000.00
Clean sheet %53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D14L02L00D00D01L04L00D20WH·TRE12/04H·BAR08/08A·CAE16/08H·BRI22/08A·PEN25/08H·BAL30/08H·FLI06/09A·THE13/09H·COL20/09A·BRI23/09← FAW ChampionshipPremier League →
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.630.870.401.070.87
vs Stronger (6)1.171.171.670.670.671.67
vs Similar (20)0.950.550.600.401.300.70
vs Weaker (4)0.750.251.000.000.500.50
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Haverfordwest County AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L01L01L02L10W01L04L00D02L23LA·FLO08/07H·FLO17/07H·PEN08/08H·CAR22/08A·BRI25/08H·CAE30/08A·THE06/09A·COL13/09H·GAP20/09H·BAR23/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.930.751.120.210.71
vs Stronger (6)0.172.000.502.000.002.00
vs Similar (23)0.610.650.791.000.330.11
vs Weaker (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Haverfordwest County AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.578.8%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
BT (12)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
LA (2)
€0m
llanelli AFC's squad is €1m less valuable than Haverfordwest County AFC's (€0m vs €1m).

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
BT (4)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
llanelli AFC and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (2)
€0m
llanelli AFC and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
BT (6)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LA (0)
€0m
llanelli AFC and Haverfordwest County AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
LA wins
0
Draws
0
HCA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

llanelli AFC vs Haverfordwest County AFC · H/A from LA
DateH/AGameScore
13/12/24AHaverfordwest County AFC Vs LA0-2

llanelli AFCllanelli AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/25ABriton Ferry Vs LA1-2
20/09/25HLA Vs Colwyn Bay0-0
13/09/25AThe New Saints Vs LA6-0
06/09/25HLA Vs Flint Town United0-5
30/08/25HLA Vs Bala Town0-1
25/08/25APenybont Vs LA2-0
22/08/25HLA Vs Briton Ferry2-4
16/08/25ACaernarfon Town Vs LA6-1
08/08/25HLA Vs Barry Town0-2
12/04/25HLA Vs Trefelin3-0

Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/25HHCA Vs Barry Town2-3
20/09/25HHCA Vs GAP Connah S Quay FC1-3
13/09/25AColwyn Bay Vs HCA3-0
06/09/25AThe New Saints Vs HCA5-0
30/08/25HHCA Vs Caernarfon Town1-1
25/08/25ABriton Ferry Vs HCA0-1
22/08/25HHCA Vs Cardiff MET2-2
08/08/25HHCA Vs Penybont0-1
17/07/25HHCA Vs Floriana2-3
08/07/25AFloriana Vs HCA2-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

llanelli AFC
llanelli AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 2 Wins / 1 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLDW1.78
HomeLLLLD1.65
AwayDLLLW1.89
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %52%48%56%
AVG goals3.163.392.96
Over 1.5 %84%87%81%
Over 2.5 %56%57%56%
Over 3.5 %36%43%30%
Scored1.862.171.59
Conceded1.301.221.37
BTTS54%43%63%
Clean Sheet34%39%30%
Corners---
Cards---
Haverfordwest County AFC
Haverfordwest County AFC
Wales: Premier League
Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL1.40
HomeLDDLL1.44
AwayDLWLL1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%37%35%
AVG goals2.302.522.04
Over 1.5 %62%63%61%
Over 2.5 %42%48%35%
Over 3.5 %24%37%9%
Scored1.181.410.91
Conceded1.121.111.13
BTTS48%56%39%
Clean Sheet36%33%39%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1The New SaintsThe New Saints3280
81%
2.5
8125+56
3.3
88%
66%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.50.8
-
2GAP Connah S Quay FCGAP Connah S Quay FC3258
50%
1.8
6138+23
3.1
88%
69%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.2
-
3Haverfordwest County AFCHaverfordwest County AFC3449
41%
1.4
4946+3
2.8
71%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.4
-
4Barry TownBarry Town3347
36%
1.4
4434+10
2.4
64%
39%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.0
-
5Colwyn BayColwyn Bay3346
36%
1.4
4137+4
2.4
64%
39%
24%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.1
-
6Caernarfon TownCaernarfon Town3245
38%
1.4
5647+9
3.2
91%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.81.5
-
7Briton FerryBriton Ferry3245
38%
1.4
4647-1
2.9
81%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.5
-
8PenybontPenybont3445
35%
1.3
4149-8
2.6
68%
41%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.21.4
-
9Cardiff METCardiff MET3238
25%
1.2
4351-8
2.9
88%
56%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.6
-
10Flint Town UnitedFlint Town United3235
25%
1.1
4859-11
3.3
81%
62%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
-
11Bala TownBala Town3232
25%
1.0
3345-12
2.4
72%
44%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
12llanelli AFCllanelli AFC3213
9%
0.4
1782-65
3.1
78%
59%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.52.6
-
Wales: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →

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