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Lokomotiv Gomel vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Result & Analysis

Date: 07/10/2023
Time: 13:00
Final 0-3
Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
Vs
37%
25%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotiv Gomel win✗ Miss
36.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev win✓ Hit
38.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W05L20W20W12L20W10W02L21W11DA·OST05/08A·MOL11/08H·SHA16/08A·OSI20/08H·ORS26/08A·BUM03/09H·VOL10/09A·FC 16/09H·ZHO24/09A·NIV01/10
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.930.972.070.861.811.06
vs Stronger (1)4.001.004.001.00--
vs Similar (15)1.801.332.001.141.621.50
vs Weaker (14)1.930.571.830.502.000.62
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-861W82W11D50W20W00D40W21W30W20WH·SHA16/07A·OSI05/08A·ORS12/08H·BUM16/08A·VOL20/08H·FC 27/08A·ZHO02/09H·NIV10/09A·LID24/09H·ARS01/10
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.971.201.930.932.001.47
vs Stronger (2)1.003.50--1.003.50
vs Similar (24)1.751.001.770.921.731.09
vs Weaker (4)3.751.253.001.004.501.50
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.5%
Under 1.5
15.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.0%
Under 2.5
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.8%
Under 3.5
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.2%
2-2
6.8%
0-1
5.4%
0-2
5.2%
1-0
5.2%
2-0
5.0%
Lokomotiv Gomel goals ↓
FC Dnepr Mogilev goals →
01234
04.9%5.4%5.2%2.9%1.2%
15.2%11%8.4%4.6%1.9%
25.0%8.2%6.8%3.7%1.5%
32.7%4.4%3.6%2.0%0.8%
41.1%1.8%1.5%0.8%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotiv Gomel goals (down), columns = FC Dnepr Mogilev goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.53
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.28
FC Vitebsk
2.28
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.94
ML Vitebsk
1.91
Baranovichi
1.50
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.44
Volna
1.34
Lida
1.28
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.28
Niva
1.28
Ostrovets FC
1.22
Bumprom
1.19
Orsha
0.97
Shakhtyor Petrikov
0.69
Slonim
0.69
Osipovichy
0.16
Lokomotiv Gomel is 0.34 points worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of average points per game (1.94 vs 2.28).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Arsenal (Belarus)
2.69
ML Vitebsk
2.62
FC Dnepr Mogilev
2.34
FC Vitebsk
2.12
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.72
Ostrovets FC
1.69
Niva
1.66
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.59
Orsha
1.56
Baranovichi
1.44
Bumprom
1.41
Lida
1.38
Volna
1.28
Shakhtyor Petrikov
1.03
Slonim
0.81
Osipovichy
0.66
Lokomotiv Gomel is 0.62 goals worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 2.34).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
FC Vitebsk
0.69
FC Dnepr Mogilev
0.75
Arsenal (Belarus)
0.94
Lokomotiv Gomel
1.25
Lida
1.50
Baranovichi
1.53
Volna
1.53
ML Vitebsk
1.62
Zhodino Yuzhnoe
1.62
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
1.75
Orsha
1.94
Ostrovets FC
1.94
Bumprom
1.94
Slonim
1.97
Niva
2.06
Shakhtyor Petrikov
2.25
Osipovichy
2.66
Lokomotiv Gomel is 0.50 goals worse than FC Dnepr Mogilev in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 0.75).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L10W10W10W10W00D01L01L00DA·OST05/08A·MOL11/08H·SHA16/08A·OSI20/08H·ORS26/08A·BUM03/09H·VOL10/09A·FC 16/09H·ZHO24/09A·NIV01/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.431.000.430.750.44
vs Stronger (1)4.001.004.001.00--
vs Similar (15)0.530.600.710.570.380.62
vs Weaker (14)1.000.210.830.171.120.25
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W52W10W20W00D00D00D00D10W00DH·SHA16/07A·OSI05/08A·ORS12/08H·BUM16/08A·VOL20/08H·FC 27/08A·ZHO02/09H·NIV10/09A·LID24/09H·ARS01/10
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.530.800.400.730.67
vs Stronger (2)1.001.50--1.001.50
vs Similar (24)0.420.420.540.380.270.45
vs Weaker (4)2.750.752.500.503.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W03L10W10W02L10W10W01L20W11DA·OST05/08A·MOL11/08H·SHA16/08A·OSI20/08H·ORS26/08A·BUM03/09H·VOL10/09A·FC 16/09H·ZHO24/09A·NIV01/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.070.531.070.431.060.62
vs Stronger (1)0.000.000.000.00--
vs Similar (15)1.270.731.290.571.250.88
vs Weaker (14)0.930.361.000.330.880.38
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Dnepr Mogilev) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-441W30W01L30W20W00D40W21W20W20WH·SHA16/07A·OSI05/08A·ORS12/08H·BUM16/08A·VOL20/08H·FC 27/08A·ZHO02/09H·NIV10/09A·LID24/09H·ARS01/10
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.671.130.531.270.80
vs Stronger (2)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (24)1.330.581.230.541.450.64
vs Weaker (4)1.000.500.500.501.500.50
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotiv Gomel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotiv Gomel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Dnepr Mogilev over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (26)
€14m
FDM (25)
€3m
FV (24)
€3m
BAR (21)
€2m
A( (17)
€2m
NIV (21)
€2m
BUM (20)
€2m
M4 (22)
€1m
VOL (18)
€1m
OF (22)
€1m
LID (18)
€1m
SLO (20)
€1m
ORS (19)
€1m
OSI (20)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (9)
€6m
FV (13)
€2m
FDM (9)
€1m
BAR (8)
€1m
NIV (5)
€1m
A( (5)
€1m
BUM (7)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
M4 (6)
€0m
OF (6)
€0m
OSI (6)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
LID (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (6)
€3m
FDM (6)
€1m
LID (7)
€1m
NIV (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€0m
A( (5)
€0m
M4 (7)
€0m
VOL (6)
€0m
OF (7)
€0m
ORS (9)
€0m
SLO (6)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
BUM (4)
€0m
FV (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MV (11)
€5m
FDM (10)
€1m
FV (8)
€1m
BAR (9)
€1m
A( (7)
€1m
BUM (9)
€1m
OF (9)
€1m
NIV (9)
€1m
M4 (9)
€1m
VOL (6)
€0m
LID (9)
€0m
SLO (8)
€0m
OSI (7)
€0m
ORS (5)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
LG wins
1
Draws
0
FDM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lokomotiv Gomel vs FC Dnepr Mogilev · H/A from LG
DateH/AGameScore
04/06/23AFC Dnepr Mogilev Vs LG1-1

Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23ANiva Vs LG1-1
24/09/23HLG Vs Zhodino Yuzhnoe2-1
16/09/23AFC Vitebsk Vs LG2-0
10/09/23HLG Vs Volna1-0
03/09/23ABumprom Vs LG0-2
26/08/23HLG Vs Orsha1-2
20/08/23AOsipovichy Vs LG0-2
16/08/23HLG Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov2-0
11/08/23AMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 Vs LG5-0
05/08/23AOstrovets FC Vs LG0-2

FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
01/10/23HFDM Vs Arsenal (Belarus)2-0
24/09/23ALida Vs FDM0-3
10/09/23HFDM Vs Niva2-1
02/09/23AZhodino Yuzhnoe Vs FDM0-4
27/08/23HFDM Vs FC Vitebsk0-0
20/08/23AVolna Vs FDM0-2
16/08/23HFDM Vs Bumprom5-0
12/08/23AOrsha Vs FDM1-1
05/08/23AOsipovichy Vs FDM2-8
16/07/23HFDM Vs Shakhtyor Petrikov6-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lokomotiv Gomel
Lokomotiv Gomel
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWLWD1.90
HomeWWLWW2.08
AwayLWWLD1.72
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %55%62%48%
AVG goals2.883.292.48
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %55%67%44%
Over 3.5 %31%42%20%
Scored1.822.251.40
Conceded1.061.041.08
BTTS49%58%40%
Clean Sheet43%38%48%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Dnepr Mogilev
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Belarus: 1. Division
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW1.24
HomeWWDWW1.38
AwayWDWWW1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%42%29%
AVG goals3.303.313.29
Over 1.5 %82%85%79%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %42%42%42%
Scored1.581.621.54
Conceded1.721.691.75
BTTS46%50%42%
Clean Sheet22%19%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Arsenal (Belarus)Arsenal (Belarus)3281
81%
2.5
8630+56
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1012.70.9
-
2FC Dnepr MogilevFC Dnepr Mogilev3273
69%
2.3
7524+51
3.1
75%
56%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.30.8
-
3FC VitebskFC Vitebsk3273
72%
2.3
6822+46
2.8
72%
66%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
2012.10.7
-
4Lokomotiv GomelLokomotiv Gomel3262
59%
1.9
5540+15
3.0
88%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.71.2
-
5ML VitebskML Vitebsk3261
59%
1.9
8452+32
4.2
94%
81%
69%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
14
6352.61.6
-
6BaranovichiBaranovichi3248
44%
1.5
4649-3
3.0
81%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.5
-
7Zhodino YuzhnoeZhodino Yuzhnoe3246
41%
1.4
6252+10
3.6
88%
72%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.91.6
-
8VolnaVolna3243
38%
1.3
4149-8
2.8
72%
56%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.5
-
9LidaLida3241
38%
1.3
4448-4
2.9
72%
62%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.5
-
10Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Molodechno-DYuSSh 43241
34%
1.3
5156-5
3.3
88%
72%
41%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.61.8
-
11NivaNiva3241
38%
1.3
5366-13
3.7
88%
69%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.72.1
-
12Ostrovets FCOstrovets FC3239
31%
1.2
5462-8
3.6
84%
69%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.71.9
-
13BumpromBumprom3238
31%
1.2
4562-17
3.3
88%
66%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.41.9
-
14OrshaOrsha3231
25%
1.0
5062-12
3.5
88%
75%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
15SlonimSlonim3222
16%
0.7
2663-37
2.8
62%
53%
34%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.82.0
-
16Shakhtyor PetrikovShakhtyor Petrikov3222
19%
0.7
3372-39
3.3
81%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.02.2
-
17OsipovichyOsipovichy325
3%
0.2
2185-64
3.3
84%
62%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0000.72.7
-
Belarus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Belarus: 1. Division stats & trends →

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