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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Aragvi Dusheti Result & Analysis

Date: 15/12/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 0-1
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Vs
44%
26%
30%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win✗ Miss
43.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti win✓ Hit
29.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L01L11D10W15L34L12L32W51W32WA·GON17/10H·MES21/10A·MER26/10H·SAM03/11A·RUS08/11H·SIO21/11A·SAB25/11A·SPA29/11H·DIN06/12A·ARA11/12
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.571.571.361.561.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.631.631.581.501.671.73
vs Weaker (3)1.001.001.500.500.002.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W03L10W20W10W01L11D22D01L23LH·SPA25/10A·RUS02/11H·WIT09/11A·KOL22/11H·DIN26/11A·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.501.691.561.071.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)1.401.501.691.561.071.43
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.5%
Under 1.5
19.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.7%
Under 2.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.3%
Under 3.5
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
60.1%
No
39.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
2-1
9.2%
1-2
7.4%
1-0
7.4%
2-0
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
0-1 ✓
5.8%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals ↓
Aragvi Dusheti goals →
01234
06.3%5.8%4.6%2.0%0.7%
17.4%12%7.4%3.3%1.1%
26.9%9.2%6.1%2.7%0.9%
33.8%5.0%3.3%1.5%0.5%
41.5%2.0%1.3%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Aragvi Dusheti goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Odishi 1919
2.00
Rustavi
1.97
Spaeri
1.78
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Meshakhte
1.44
Merani Martvili
1.39
Sioni
1.33
Samtredia
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.26
Saburtalo II
1.13
Gonio
1.03
Dinamo Tbilisi II
0.78
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.24 points worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.50).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Odishi 1919
2.00
Rustavi
1.72
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Sioni
1.39
Samtredia
1.22
Gonio
1.17
Merani Martvili
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.14
Saburtalo II
1.13
Meshakhte
0.94
Lokomotivi Tbilisi and Aragvi Dusheti are level in goals scored per game (both 1.50).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Meshakhte
0.69
Rustavi
0.83
Spaeri
0.94
Samtredia
1.17
Sioni
1.22
Saburtalo II
1.26
Odishi 1919
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
Merani Martvili
1.53
Gonio
1.58
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.11
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.03 goals worse than Aragvi Dusheti in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.50).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W01L10W10W03L02L11D01L31W11DA·GON17/10H·MES21/10A·MER26/10H·SAM03/11A·RUS08/11H·SIO21/11A·SAB25/11A·SPA29/11H·DIN06/12A·ARA11/12
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.500.710.620.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)0.560.780.420.830.670.73
vs Weaker (3)0.670.331.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W01L00D00D10W00D00D11D00D11DH·SPA25/10A·RUS02/11H·WIT09/11A·KOL22/11H·DIN26/11A·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.500.810.500.210.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.530.500.810.500.210.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L00D01L00D12L32W01L31W20W21WA·GON17/10H·MES21/10A·MER26/10H·SAM03/11A·RUS08/11H·SIO21/11A·SAB25/11A·SPA29/11H·DIN06/12A·ARA11/12
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.000.831.070.640.941.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (27)1.070.851.170.671.001.00
vs Weaker (3)0.330.670.500.500.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aragvi Dusheti) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W02L10W20W00D01L11D11D01L12LH·SPA25/10A·RUS02/11H·WIT09/11A·KOL22/11H·DIN26/11A·LOK30/11H·SHT08/12A·SAB12/12H·SAB16/12H·LOK11/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.871.000.881.060.860.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (30)0.871.000.881.060.860.93
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aragvi Dusheti over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.580.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MES (5)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (10)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
3
LT wins
1
Draws
1
AD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Aragvi Dusheti · H/A from LT
DateH/AGameScore
11/12/25AAragvi Dusheti Vs LT2-3
30/11/24HLT Vs Aragvi Dusheti1-0
26/09/24AAragvi Dusheti Vs LT1-1
31/07/24HLT Vs Aragvi Dusheti2-1
22/04/24AAragvi Dusheti Vs LT3-1

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/12/25AAragvi Dusheti Vs LT2-3
06/12/25HLT Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II5-1
29/11/25ASpaeri Vs LT2-3
25/11/25ASaburtalo II Vs LT2-1
21/11/25HLT Vs Sioni3-4
08/11/25ARustavi Vs LT5-1
03/11/25HLT Vs Samtredia1-0
26/10/25AMerani Martvili Vs LT1-1
21/10/25HLT Vs Meshakhte0-1
17/10/25AGonio Vs LT2-1

Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
11/12/25HAD Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi2-3
16/12/24HAD Vs Saburtalo II0-1
12/12/24ASaburtalo II Vs AD2-2
08/12/24HAD Vs Shturmi1-1
30/11/24ALokomotivi Tbilisi Vs AD1-0
26/11/24HAD Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II1-0
22/11/24AKolkheti Khobi Vs AD0-2
09/11/24HAD Vs WIT Georgia1-0
02/11/24ARustavi Vs AD3-0
25/10/24HAD Vs Spaeri2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWWW1.46
HomeLLWLW1.56
AwayDLLWW1.36
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%40%36%
AVG goals2.883.002.76
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %50%52%48%
Over 3.5 %28%28%28%
Scored1.521.681.36
Conceded1.361.321.40
BTTS72%76%68%
Clean Sheet18%12%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLDDLL1.24
HomeWWDLL1.38
AwayLLWLD1.10
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%38%30%
AVG goals2.733.292.15
Over 1.5 %73%81%65%
Over 2.5 %51%57%45%
Over 3.5 %27%33%20%
Scored1.341.710.95
Conceded1.391.571.20
BTTS56%76%35%
Clean Sheet24%14%35%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RustaviRustavi3671
58%
2.0
6230+32
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2SpaeriSpaeri3664
47%
1.8
5434+20
2.4
72%
44%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.50.9
-
3MeshakhteMeshakhte3652
36%
1.4
3425+9
1.6
47%
28%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.90.7
-
4Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3650
36%
1.4
4155-14
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
5SioniSioni3648
33%
1.3
5044+6
2.6
67%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3848
32%
1.3
5758-1
3.0
79%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7SamtrediaSamtredia3646
31%
1.3
4442+2
2.4
72%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
8Saburtalo IISaburtalo II3843
26%
1.1
4348-5
2.4
74%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
9GonioGonio3637
25%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3628
17%
0.8
4176-35
3.2
89%
72%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11Odishi 1919Odishi 191924
50%
2.0
43+1
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
12Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti23
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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