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Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Samtredia Result & Analysis

Date: 20/05/2025
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Vs
44%
28%
27%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win✓ Hit
44.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Samtredia win✗ Miss
27.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L11D22D01L42W11D10W12L01L20WH·MER29/03A·SAM02/04H·RUS06/04A·SIO12/04H·SAB16/04H·SPA24/04A·DIN28/04A·GON02/05H·MES09/05A·MER15/05
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.031.471.271.330.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)1.411.031.471.271.360.79
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D12L01L22D00D01L12L01L00DA·SIO29/03H·LOK02/04A·SPA06/04H·DIN12/04A·GON16/04H·MES24/04A·MER28/04A·SAB02/05A·RUS09/05H·SIO15/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.370.871.001.001.73
vs Stronger (28)0.861.250.791.000.931.50
vs Similar (2)2.003.002.001.002.005.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.6%
Under 1.5
25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
48.3%
Under 2.5
51.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.5%
Under 3.5
73.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.4%
No
46.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
1-0
9.7%
2-1 ✓
9.1%
0-0
8.6%
2-0
8.1%
0-1
7.0%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
5.1%
Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals ↓
Samtredia goals →
01234
08.6%7.0%4.6%1.7%0.5%
19.7%14%6.9%2.6%0.7%
28.1%9.1%5.1%1.9%0.5%
34.0%4.5%2.5%0.9%0.3%
41.5%1.7%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lokomotivi Tbilisi goals (down), columns = Samtredia goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Odishi 1919
2.00
Rustavi
1.97
Spaeri
1.78
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Meshakhte
1.44
Merani Martvili
1.39
Sioni
1.33
Samtredia
1.28
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.26
Saburtalo II
1.13
Gonio
1.03
Dinamo Tbilisi II
0.78
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.01 points worse than Samtredia in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.28).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Odishi 1919
2.00
Rustavi
1.72
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Spaeri
1.50
Sioni
1.39
Samtredia
1.22
Gonio
1.17
Merani Martvili
1.14
Dinamo Tbilisi II
1.14
Saburtalo II
1.13
Meshakhte
0.94
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.28 goals better than Samtredia in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.22).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Meshakhte
0.69
Rustavi
0.83
Spaeri
0.94
Samtredia
1.17
Sioni
1.22
Saburtalo II
1.26
Odishi 1919
1.50
Aragvi Dusheti
1.50
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
1.53
Merani Martvili
1.53
Gonio
1.58
Dinamo Tbilisi II
2.11
Lokomotivi Tbilisi is 0.36 goals worse than Samtredia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.17).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D00D10W01L21W01L00D00D00D00DH·MER29/03A·SAM02/04H·RUS06/04A·SIO12/04H·SAB16/04H·SPA24/04A·DIN28/04A·GON02/05H·MES09/05A·MER15/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.330.670.400.470.27
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.590.340.670.400.500.29
vs Weaker (1)0.000.00--0.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D10W00D22D00D00D11D00D00DA·SIO29/03H·LOK02/04A·SPA06/04H·DIN12/04A·GON16/04H·MES24/04A·MER28/04A·SAB02/05A·RUS09/05H·SIO15/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.570.270.400.670.73
vs Stronger (28)0.430.500.210.360.640.64
vs Similar (2)1.001.501.001.001.002.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L11D12L00D21W10W10W12L01L20WH·MER29/03A·SAM02/04H·RUS06/04A·SIO12/04H·SAB16/04H·SPA24/04A·DIN28/04A·GON02/05H·MES09/05A·MER15/05
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.700.800.870.870.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (29)0.830.690.800.870.860.50
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Samtredia) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SamtrediaSamtredia

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D02L01L00D00D01L01L01L00DA·SIO29/03H·LOK02/04A·SPA06/04H·DIN12/04A·GON16/04H·MES24/04A·MER28/04A·SAB02/05A·RUS09/05H·SIO15/05
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.800.600.600.331.00
vs Stronger (28)0.430.750.570.640.290.86
vs Similar (2)1.001.501.000.001.003.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lokomotivi Tbilisi) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Samtredia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.574.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.573.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (22)
€2m
MES (21)
€2m
SPA (20)
€2m
SAM (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (8)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (7)
€1m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MES (5)
€1m
RUS (4)
€0m
SPA (4)
€0m
SAM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RUS (10)
€1m
SPA (8)
€1m
MES (9)
€1m
SAM (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
LT wins
1
Draws
0
SAM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lokomotivi Tbilisi vs Samtredia · H/A from LT
DateH/AGameScore
02/04/25ASamtredia Vs LT1-1

Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/25AMerani Martvili Vs LT0-2
09/05/25HLT Vs Meshakhte0-1
02/05/25AGonio Vs LT2-1
28/04/25ADinamo Tbilisi II Vs LT0-1
24/04/25HLT Vs Spaeri1-1
16/04/25HLT Vs Saburtalo II4-2
12/04/25ASioni Vs LT1-0
06/04/25HLT Vs Rustavi2-2
02/04/25ASamtredia Vs LT1-1
29/03/25HLT Vs Merani Martvili1-2

SamtrediaSamtredia

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/25HSAM Vs Sioni0-0
09/05/25ARustavi Vs SAM1-0
02/05/25ASaburtalo II Vs SAM2-1
28/04/25AMerani Martvili Vs SAM1-0
24/04/25HSAM Vs Meshakhte0-0
16/04/25AGonio Vs SAM2-2
12/04/25HSAM Vs Dinamo Tbilisi II0-1
06/04/25ASpaeri Vs SAM2-1
02/04/25HSAM Vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi1-1
29/03/25ASioni Vs SAM0-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWLLW1.36
HomeLDWDL1.44
AwayDLWLW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.703.122.28
Over 1.5 %78%84%72%
Over 2.5 %46%52%40%
Over 3.5 %26%32%20%
Scored1.401.721.08
Conceded1.301.401.20
BTTS62%76%48%
Clean Sheet20%12%28%
Corners---
Cards---
Samtredia
Samtredia
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLD0.78
HomeDDLDD1.08
AwayLDLLL0.48
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %14%20%8%
AVG goals2.462.042.88
Over 1.5 %70%64%76%
Over 2.5 %50%36%64%
Over 3.5 %28%20%36%
Scored0.920.960.88
Conceded1.541.082.00
BTTS58%52%64%
Clean Sheet20%28%12%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RustaviRustavi3671
58%
2.0
6230+32
2.6
81%
53%
19%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.70.8
-
2SpaeriSpaeri3664
47%
1.8
5434+20
2.4
72%
44%
14%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.50.9
-
3MeshakhteMeshakhte3652
36%
1.4
3425+9
1.6
47%
28%
8%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1110.90.7
-
4Merani MartviliMerani Martvili3650
36%
1.4
4155-14
2.7
75%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
5SioniSioni3648
33%
1.3
5044+6
2.6
67%
50%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.2
-
6Lokomotivi TbilisiLokomotivi Tbilisi3848
32%
1.3
5758-1
3.0
79%
50%
32%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
7SamtrediaSamtredia3646
31%
1.3
4442+2
2.4
72%
44%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.2
-
8Saburtalo IISaburtalo II3843
26%
1.1
4348-5
2.4
74%
45%
21%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.3
-
9GonioGonio3637
25%
1.0
4257-15
2.8
83%
53%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
10Dinamo Tbilisi IIDinamo Tbilisi II3628
17%
0.8
4176-35
3.2
89%
72%
39%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
11Odishi 1919Odishi 191924
50%
2.0
43+1
3.5
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.01.5
-
12Aragvi DushetiAragvi Dusheti23
50%
1.5
33+0
3.0
50%
50%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.5
-
Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Georgia: Erovnuli Liga 2 stats & trends →

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