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Longford Town vs Treaty United Result & Analysis

Date: 30/09/2023
Time: 18:30
Final 2-3
Longford Town
Longford Town
Vs
34%
31%
35%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Longford Town win✗ Miss
34.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Treaty United win✓ Hit
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W01L32W42W23L10W10W00D03L02LH·KER15/07H·COB29/07A·TRE04/08A·BRA07/08H·ATH12/08A·FIN25/08H·GAL02/09A·KER08/09H·WAT22/09A·WEX25/09
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.330.931.271.271.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.911.360.831.001.001.80
vs Weaker (19)1.211.321.001.441.401.20
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L23L03L10W31W22D01L12L22D41WA·WEX28/07H·LON04/08A·GAL07/08A·FIN11/08H·KER25/08H·WAT28/08A·COB01/09H·WEX08/09A·BRA15/09H·ATH22/09
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.701.601.871.271.53
vs Stronger (12)1.172.421.432.430.802.40
vs Similar (14)1.291.291.171.671.381.00
vs Weaker (4)2.751.003.500.502.001.50
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%020%128%220%312%46%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
41.0%
Under 2.5
59.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.5%
No
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.5%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
10.1%
1-0
10.0%
1-2
7.7%
2-1
7.7%
0-2
6.6%
2-0
6.6%
Longford Town goals ↓
Treaty United goals →
01234
011%10%6.6%2.6%0.7%
110%15%7.7%3.0%0.9%
26.6%7.7%4.5%1.7%0.5%
32.5%3.0%1.7%0.7%0.2%
40.7%0.9%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Longford Town goals (down), columns = Treaty United goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Galway United
2.61
Waterford
1.90
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Wexford
1.42
Athlone Town
1.26
Treaty United
1.22
Bray Wanderers
1.22
Longford Town
1.11
Finn Harps
1.03
Kerry
0.28
Longford Town is 0.11 points worse than Treaty United in terms of average points per game (1.11 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Galway United
2.72
Waterford
2.28
Cobh Ramblers
1.64
Athlone Town
1.50
Treaty United
1.36
Bray Wanderers
1.33
Wexford
1.29
Longford Town
1.08
Finn Harps
1.08
Kerry
0.81
Longford Town is 0.28 goals worse than Treaty United in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 1.36).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Galway United
0.50
Waterford
0.90
Wexford
1.34
Cobh Ramblers
1.36
Longford Town
1.42
Treaty United
1.69
Athlone Town
1.71
Bray Wanderers
1.72
Finn Harps
2.06
Kerry
2.53
Longford Town is 0.28 goals better than Treaty United in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.69).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Longford TownLongford Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L12L01L11D10W10W00D01L01LH·KER15/07H·COB29/07A·TRE04/08A·BRA07/08H·ATH12/08A·FIN25/08H·GAL02/09A·KER08/09H·WAT22/09A·WEX25/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.470.530.330.600.60
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.550.450.500.330.600.60
vs Weaker (19)0.580.470.560.330.600.60
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W02L00D11D02L00D10W10W11DA·WEX28/07H·LON04/08A·GAL07/08A·FIN11/08H·KER25/08H·WAT28/08A·COB01/09H·WEX08/09A·BRA15/09H·ATH22/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.900.671.000.530.80
vs Stronger (12)0.501.420.571.290.401.60
vs Similar (14)0.360.500.330.830.380.25
vs Weaker (4)1.750.752.000.501.501.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Longford TownLongford Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D00D20W41W12L00D00D00D02L01LH·KER15/07H·COB29/07A·TRE04/08A·BRA07/08H·ATH12/08A·FIN25/08H·GAL02/09A·KER08/09H·WAT22/09A·WEX25/09
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.870.400.930.670.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (11)0.360.910.330.670.401.20
vs Weaker (19)0.630.840.441.110.800.60
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Treaty United) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L01L10W20W20W01L02L12L30WA·WEX28/07H·LON04/08A·GAL07/08A·FIN11/08H·KER25/08H·WAT28/08A·COB01/09H·WEX08/09A·BRA15/09H·ATH22/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.930.870.730.73
vs Stronger (12)0.671.000.861.140.400.80
vs Similar (14)0.930.790.830.831.000.75
vs Weaker (4)1.000.251.500.000.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Longford Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Longford Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Longford Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Treaty United over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.579.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (21)
€3m
WAT (19)
€2m
FH (2)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
TU (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WAT (6)
€1m
GU (7)
€1m
TU (1)
€0m
FH (1)
€0m
AT (1)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (5)
€1m
FH (1)
€0m
BW (1)
€0m
KER (1)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GU (7)
€1m
WAT (8)
€1m
CR (2)
€0m
BW (0)
€0m
AT (0)
€0m
FH (0)
€0m
TU (0)
€0m
KER (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

7 previous meetings
1
LT wins
3
Draws
3
TU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Longford Town vs Treaty United · H/A from LT
DateH/AGameScore
04/08/23ATreaty United Vs LT2-3
13/05/23HLT Vs Treaty United0-3
07/04/23ATreaty United Vs LT3-2
24/09/22HLT Vs Treaty United1-1
08/07/22ATreaty United Vs LT3-0
16/05/22ATreaty United Vs LT0-0
23/04/22HLT Vs Treaty United0-0

Longford TownLongford Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
25/09/23AWexford Vs LT2-0
22/09/23HLT Vs Waterford0-3
08/09/23AKerry Vs LT0-0
02/09/23HLT Vs Galway United1-0
25/08/23AFinn Harps Vs LT0-1
12/08/23HLT Vs Athlone Town2-3
07/08/23ABray Wanderers Vs LT2-4
04/08/23ATreaty United Vs LT2-3
29/07/23HLT Vs Cobh Ramblers0-1
15/07/23HLT Vs Kerry2-1

Treaty UnitedTreaty United

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/09/23HTU Vs Athlone Town4-1
15/09/23ABray Wanderers Vs TU2-2
08/09/23HTU Vs Wexford1-2
01/09/23ACobh Ramblers Vs TU1-0
28/08/23HTU Vs Waterford2-2
25/08/23HTU Vs Kerry3-1
11/08/23AFinn Harps Vs TU0-1
07/08/23AGalway United Vs TU3-0
04/08/23HTU Vs Longford Town2-3
28/07/23AWexford Vs TU1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Longford Town
Longford Town
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 5 Wins / 1 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.26
HomeWLLWL1.24
AwayWWWDL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%32%32%
AVG goals2.722.363.08
Over 1.5 %74%72%76%
Over 2.5 %54%44%64%
Over 3.5 %30%20%40%
Scored1.281.081.48
Conceded1.441.281.60
BTTS52%52%52%
Clean Sheet26%32%20%
Corners---
Cards---
Treaty United
Treaty United
Ireland: First Division
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLDW1.28
HomeLWDLW1.24
AwayLLWLD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%36%32%
AVG goals2.883.202.56
Over 1.5 %84%88%80%
Over 2.5 %54%72%36%
Over 3.5 %28%36%20%
Scored1.301.401.20
Conceded1.581.801.36
BTTS48%60%36%
Clean Sheet22%12%32%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Galway UnitedGalway United3694
83%
2.6
9818+80
3.2
75%
58%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1112.70.5
-
2WaterfordWaterford3974
54%
1.9
8935+54
3.2
77%
59%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1112.30.9
-
3Cobh RamblersCobh Ramblers3964
44%
1.6
6453+11
3.0
77%
51%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.4
-
4WexfordWexford3854
39%
1.4
4951-2
2.6
79%
53%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.3
-
5Athlone TownAthlone Town3848
37%
1.3
5765-8
3.2
76%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.7
-
6Treaty UnitedTreaty United3644
33%
1.2
4961-12
3.1
83%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
7Bray WanderersBray Wanderers3644
28%
1.2
4862-14
3.1
83%
61%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8Longford TownLongford Town3640
28%
1.1
3951-12
2.5
64%
47%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.11.4
-
9Finn HarpsFinn Harps3637
25%
1.0
3974-35
3.1
75%
53%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.12.1
-
10KerryKerry3610
3%
0.3
2991-62
3.3
83%
64%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.82.5
-
Ireland: First Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Ireland: First Division stats & trends →

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