Lorient are tipped to win in a tight encounter that is expected to see about 2.5 goals. The model picks a home win, with a 43 % chance, a draw at 29 % and an away win at 28 %. The most likely total is 2 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, which carries a 13.9 % probability. In recent form, Lorient have scored an average of 1.7 goals and conceded 1.5 at home against similarly ranked opposition, while Estac Troyes have netted 1.33 and allowed 0.92 on the road. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.6 %), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9 %), Under 6.5 (98.6 %), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.5 %), Under 5.5 (95.9 %), Home under 3.5 goals (94.6 % with a 5 % edge) and Home under 2.5 HT goals (94.0 %).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for Lorient at 43%, was denied as Estac Troyes edged a 1-2 victory, extending their winning run. The model’s call was wrong, and the final result was an away win. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 (13.9%) slipped to 1-2, while the predicted total of 2.5 goals proved close to the 2-goal outcome. The model’s selections performed largely as expected: Under 7.5 (99.6%) hit, Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%) hit, Under 6.5 (98.6%) hit, Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9%) hit, Away under 3.5 goals (97.5%) hit, Under 5.5 (95.9%) hit, Home under 3.5 goals (94.7%) hit, and only Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.0%) missed. The match delivered a surprising away triumph amid a high-confidence, low-variance set of model picks.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lorient win✗ Miss
42.7%
Avg Implied 50.5% · @ 1.88
Edge
-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.93
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.90
Dafabet
1.90
Superbet
1.90
Draw✗ Miss
29.2%
Avg Implied 27.2% · @ 3.49
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.68
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
Pinnacle
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Estac Troyes win✓ Hit
28.0%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.26
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
4.55
Pinnacle
4.44
1xBet
4.42
Marathonbet
4.40
Bet365
4.33
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.03
1.47
0.93
1.73
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.00
1.33
0.33
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (21)
1.33
1.10
1.50
1.08
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
0.50
-
-
5.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
0.97
2.00
1.21
1.56
0.75
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
2.00
4.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.71
1.05
2.00
1.30
1.45
0.82
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.38
2.00
0.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.3%
@ 1.33+1.8%
Under 1.5
27.7%
@ 3.19-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
Under
Unibet
3.45
Pinnacle
3.32
10Bet
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.3%
@ 2.06-0.9%
Under 2.5
54.7%
@ 1.77+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Pinnacle
2.13
SBO
2.11
Betano
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.83
Unibet
1.81
10Bet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
Betano
1.78
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.0%
@ 3.67-1.6%
Under 3.5
76.0%
@ 1.26+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
3.80
Betfair
3.80
Superbet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.66
Under
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
51.2%
@ 1.87+1.5%
No
48.8%
@ 1.85-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.90
Marathonbet
1.88
1xBet
1.87
No
Unibet
1.94
Betfair
1.87
William Hil
1.85
10Bet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%@ 6.29+6.8%
1-0
10.4%@ 6.02+2.9%
0-0
9.6%@ 8.72+4.5%
2-1
8.8%@ 7.80+3.1%
2-0
8.1%@ 7.99+2.5%
0-1
7.8%@ 10.11+3.4%
1-2 ✓
6.9%@ 13.00+3.5%
0-2
4.9%@ 20.51+2.8%
Lorient goals ↓
Estac Troyes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.6%
7.8%
4.9%
1.8%
0.5%
1
10%
14%
6.9%
2.5%
0.7%
2
8.1%
8.8%
4.8%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.8%
4.1%
2.2%
0.8%
0.2%
4
1.3%
1.4%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lorient goals (down), columns = Estac Troyes goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Marseille
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lorient is 0.28 points better than Estac Troyes in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.04).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lorient is 0.30 goals better than Estac Troyes in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lorient is 0.35 goals better than Estac Troyes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.85).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lorient
For 3.9 · Against 6.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 10.7 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
For 5.5 · Against 2.9 · Total 8.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 14.1 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.8
9.0
3.8
4.1
3.6
23.0
21.8
24.1
vs Stronger (10)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.2
4.8
3.6
24.2
24.0
24.4
vs Similar (28)
8.9
8.7
9.1
4.0
4.4
3.6
22.6
21.9
23.4
vs Weaker (12)
8.8
9.4
8.3
3.2
2.8
3.5
22.8
20.0
25.5
% over line
41%
42%
40%
54%
52%
56%
52%
48%
56%
% under line
59%
58%
60%
46%
48%
44%
48%
52%
44%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
8.2
8.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
27.2
26.4
28.0
vs Stronger (1)
14.0
14.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
22.0
22.0
-
vs Similar (37)
8.0
7.5
8.5
4.1
4.1
4.1
26.8
26.2
27.4
vs Weaker (12)
9.5
9.5
9.5
2.8
2.2
3.3
29.0
27.7
31.0
% over line
42%
40%
43%
44%
36%
52%
90%
92%
87%
% under line
58%
60%
57%
56%
64%
48%
10%
8%
13%
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.4
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.5
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Havre
9.1
Le Mans
9.1
Angers
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.7
Lyon
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.4
Rennes
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Lorient
4.1
Le Havre
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Lille
24.0
Rennes
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Monaco
23.5
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.6
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
43.6%
@ 2.19+1.3%
Under 9.5
56.4%
@ 1.61-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.23
Betano
2.22
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.16
Under
Superbet
1.65
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
1xBet
1.59
Unibet
1.58
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
61.8%
@ 1.57+2.5%
Under 3.5
38.2%
@ 2.29-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.57
Pinnacle
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Under
Pinnacle
2.37
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.32
Unibet
2.15
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
62.9%
Under 21.5
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lorient or Draw✗ Miss
72.0%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.22
Edge
-5.5%
43%
29%
28%
covers Lorient + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.23
Lorient or Estac Troyes✓ Hit
70.8%
Avg Implied 73.4% · @ 1.29
Edge
-2.7%
43%
29%
28%
covers Lorient + Estac Troyes
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Draw or Estac Troyes✓ Hit
57.3%
Avg Implied 49.1% · @ 1.92
Edge
+8.2%
43%
29%
28%
covers Draw + Estac Troyes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
SBO
1.97
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.95
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lorient over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
75.3%
@ 1.20-2.6%
Under
24.7%
@ 4.20+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.48
1xBet
4.25
Unibet
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Lorient over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
40.7%
@ 2.01-5.8%
Under
59.3%
@ 1.75+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
Marathonbet
2.05
BetVictor
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Under
Pinnacle
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
1xBet
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Unibet
1.76
Lorient over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
16.6%
@ 4.24-5.4%
Under
83.4%
@ 1.20+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Pinnacle
4.47
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Lorient over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.3%
@ 9.33-4.6%
Under
94.7%
@ 1.03+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
11.00
Marathonbet
9.80
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.30
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
66.3%
@ 1.53+5.6%
Under
33.7%
@ 2.37-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.58
Betano
1.57
Bet365
1.57
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Under
Unibet
2.50
Pinnacle
2.47
Betfair
2.40
10Bet
2.40
BetVictor
2.38
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
29.7%
@ 3.64+4.0%
Under
70.3%
@ 1.26-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.92
Betfair
3.80
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Marathonbet
3.74
Under
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
@ 9.92+0.3%
Under
90.3%
@ 1.03-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.70
Superbet
9.50
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Estac Troyes over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.5%
@ 25.33-1.3%
Under
97.5%
@ 1.01+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
29.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lorient, so a minus line means Lorient give that many goals of a start and Estac Troyes receive them. At -1, Lorient must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lorient win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lorient)Actual: Estac Troyes
Lorient -2
7.9%
@ 7.34-4.5%
Draw -2
13.1%
@ 5.32-3.9%
Estac Troyes +2
79.0%
@ 1.28+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Superbet
7.20
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
7.00
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
Superbet
5.35
Unibet
5.10
Away
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Handicap -1 (Lorient)Actual: Estac Troyes
Lorient -1
21.0%
@ 3.37-5.8%
Draw -1
21.8%
@ 3.51-4.0%
Estac Troyes +1
57.3%
@ 1.90+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.50
Superbet
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.48
Unibet
3.45
10Bet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
1.98
Superbet
1.92
10Bet
1.91
Betfair
1.91
Unibet
1.86
Handicap +1 (Lorient)Actual: Draw
Lorient +1
72.0%
@ 1.22-1.4%
Draw +1
16.7%
@ 5.33-0.1%
Estac Troyes -1
11.4%
@ 9.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Unibet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Away
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
9.30
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
8.50
Handicap +2 (Lorient)Actual: Lorient
Lorient +2
88.6%
@ 1.04-0.5%
Draw +2
8.0%
@ 12.33+0.4%
Estac Troyes -2
3.4%
@ 28.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
13.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Betfair
36.00
Bet365
29.00
10Bet
19.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.33
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.14
0.67
0.00
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.38
0.75
0.42
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
-
-
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.79
0.71
0.44
0.44
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.67
0.70
0.90
0.27
0.45
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.41+7.3%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 2.77-7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
Under
William Hil
2.90
Pinnacle
2.89
Betfair
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Superbet
2.80
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.5%
@ 2.97+2.9%
Under 1.5
65.5%
@ 1.37-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.14
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.08
1xBet
3.08
Superbet
3.00
Under
William Hil
1.40
Superbet
1.39
10Bet
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Betano
1.37
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.6%
@ 7.74+1.5%
Under 2.5
86.4%
@ 1.06-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
Betfair
8.00
William Hil
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Bet365
8.00
Under
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
60.0%
@ 1.85+9.8%
Under
40.0%
@ 1.87-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Pinnacle
1.88
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.94
10Bet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
22.9%
@ 5.29+5.4%
Under
77.1%
@ 1.12-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.20
Unibet
5.20
Superbet
5.10
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.4%
@ 13.50+3.4%
Under
89.6%
@ 1.01-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
32.6%
@ 2.66-2.3%
Under
67.4%
@ 1.43+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.87
Betano
2.72
Marathonbet
2.65
Superbet
2.65
1xBet
2.65
Under
10Bet
1.45
Unibet
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.0%
@ 9.96-2.3%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.25
1xBet
11.00
Superbet
9.80
Unibet
9.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
@ 27.50-2.5%
Under
98.9%
@ 1.01+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
40.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.86
0.67
0.33
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.71
0.75
0.67
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.40
1.21
0.50
1.12
0.31
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.24
0.38
1.30
0.40
1.18
0.36
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.12
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
82.5%
@ 1.26+8.1%
Under 0.5
17.5%
@ 3.65-8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Under
Unibet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.66
Marathonbet
3.66
10Bet
3.65
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
56.7%
@ 2.23+14.4%
Under 1.5
43.3%
@ 1.63-14.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.30
Marathonbet
2.30
Superbet
2.30
William Hil
2.25
Betano
2.22
Under
Unibet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.64
Superbet
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
22.1%
@ 4.89+3.0%
Under 2.5
77.9%
@ 1.16-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.20
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
William Hil
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
70.1%
@ 1.60+12.0%
Under
29.9%
@ 2.23-12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.24
Superbet
2.17
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
35.3%
@ 3.81+11.1%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.22-11.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.21
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.2%
@ 9.75+1.6%
Under
88.8%
@ 1.04-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
11.00
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
41.4%
@ 2.21-0.6%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.60+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.22
1xBet
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Superbet
2.20
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 7.30-1.6%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.06+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.60
Superbet
7.10
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 19.25-2.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.9%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Unibet
1.01
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
94.7%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.02
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Unibet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
+2.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
90.3%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Unibet
1.02
-0.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-3.4%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Unibet
1.09
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.09
Bet365
1.08
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
1xBet
1.04
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
88.6%
1.04
10Bet
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.4%
1.06
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betano
1.08
10Bet
1.07
William Hil
1.07
-1.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
83.4%
1.20
Betano
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
10Bet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.5%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
+8.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Superbet
1.21
-
-
-
+4.6%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
79.0%
1.28
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.28
10Bet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Unibet
1.27
+8.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.5%
1.20
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.20
Unibet
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.15
+2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
William Hil
1.15
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.11
-5.4%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.0%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.30
Betano
1.29
Unibet
1.29
10Bet
1.28
Superbet
1.28
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
75.3%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Pinnacle
1.22
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
-2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
1.32
Betano
1.35
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.30
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.5%
1.41
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.44
1xBet
1.44
Superbet
1.44
BetVictor
1.43
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.3%
1.33
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
BetVictor
1.35
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
72.0%
1.22
1xBet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Betano
1.23
-5.5%
✗ Miss
Home +1 handicap
72.0%
1.22
Marathonbet
1.24
Superbet
1.24
Unibet
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.20
-1.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
70.8%
1.29
1xBet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Bet365
1.30
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
70.3%
1.26
Marathonbet
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.27
-4.0%
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.1%
1.60
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.59
-
-
+12.0%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Estac Troyes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Tawfik Bentayeb48%
Martin Adeline32%
Renaud Ripart29%
Kandet Diawara23%
Jaures Assoumou21%
Mounaim El Idrissy14%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Antoine Mille9%
Mathys Detourbet9%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Ismaël Boura4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Lucas Maronnier0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Amadou Diakité33%
Nicolas Lemaitre30%
Adrien Monfray26%
Hugo Gambor26%
Lucas Maronnier22%
Mounaim El Idrissy21%
Paolo Gozzi20%
Xavier Chavalerin20%
Antoine Mille18%
Jaures Assoumou16%
Martin Adeline15%
Ismaël Boura14%
Sankhoun Diawara13%
Anis Ouzenadji13%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Mathys Detourbet11%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Hillel Konaté8%
Kandet Diawara8%
Alexandre Phliponeau7%
Yvann Titi5%
Merwan Ifnaoui3%
Roman Murcy0%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede0%
Noah Donkor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Martin Adeline29%
Noah Donkor20%
Yvann Titi18%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Merwan Ifnaoui14%
Antoine Mille12%
Tawfik Bentayeb10%
Mouhamed Diop9%
Kandet Diawara8%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Mounaim El Idrissy7%
Ismaël Boura7%
Sankhoun Diawara7%
Hugo Gambor5%
Jaures Assoumou5%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Anis Ouzenadji4%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Renaud Ripart0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Roman Murcy0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tawfik Bentayeb42%
Jaures Assoumou32%
Mathys Detourbet17%
Kandet Diawara15%
Renaud Ripart12%
Mouhamed Diop12%
Elijah Olaniyi Odede8%
Merwan Ifnaoui7%
Martin Adeline6%
Lucas Maronnier4%
Mounaim El Idrissy4%
Antoine Mille3%
Paolo Gozzi0%
Alexandre Phliponeau0%
Adrien Monfray0%
Hillel Konaté0%
Nicolas Lemaitre0%
Xavier Chavalerin0%
Ismaël Boura0%
Hugo Gambor0%
Yvann Titi0%
Anis Ouzenadji0%
Roman Murcy0%
Sankhoun Diawara0%
Amadou Diakité0%
Noah Donkor0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lorient's squad is €51m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€87m vs €36m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lorient's attack is €13m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€20m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lorient's midfield is €21m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€32m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lorient's defence is €18m more valuable than Estac Troyes's (€35m vs €17m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre