This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
1.97
1.27
2.00
0.60
1.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
2.89
0.80
2.80
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (14)
1.43
1.21
1.57
1.43
1.29
1.00
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
2.29
1.33
2.00
0.00
2.50
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.5%
Under 1.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.6%
Under 2.5
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.6%
Under 3.5
72.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.9%
No
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.4%
1-0
11.0%
2-0
10.5%
2-1
9.7%
0-0
8.1%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.6%
0-1
5.4%
Lorient goals ↓
Metz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
5.4%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.7%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.0%
5.6%
2.6%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.6%
2.4%
1.1%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lorient goals (down), columns = Metz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Monaco
2.50
Paris Saint Germain
2.29
Nice
2.05
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.63
Bordeaux
1.55
Nantes
1.34
Saint Etienne
1.32
Guingamp
1.32
Rennes
1.32
Lille
1.21
Angers
1.21
Toulouse
1.16
Metz
1.13
Montpellier
1.03
Caen
0.97
Dijon
0.97
Lorient
0.95
Nancy
0.92
Bastia
0.89
Lorient is 0.18 points worse than Metz in terms of average points per game (0.95 vs 1.13).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Monaco
2.82
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lyon
2.11
Nice
1.66
Marseille
1.50
Bordeaux
1.39
Montpellier
1.26
Guingamp
1.21
Dijon
1.21
Lorient
1.16
Saint Etienne
1.08
Lille
1.05
Nantes
1.05
Angers
1.05
Metz
1.03
Toulouse
0.97
Caen
0.95
Rennes
0.95
Bastia
0.76
Nancy
0.76
Lorient is 0.13 goals better than Metz in terms of goals scored per game (1.16 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.71
Monaco
0.82
Nice
0.95
Marseille
1.08
Toulouse
1.08
Saint Etienne
1.11
Rennes
1.11
Bordeaux
1.13
Lille
1.24
Lyon
1.26
Angers
1.29
Nancy
1.37
Guingamp
1.39
Nantes
1.42
Bastia
1.50
Dijon
1.53
Caen
1.71
Montpellier
1.74
Lorient
1.84
Metz
1.89
Lorient is 0.05 goals better than Metz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.84 vs 1.89).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lorient
For 5.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 21.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Metz
For 2.9 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.0 · Against 12.1 · Total 24.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.9
10.0
3.5
4.0
3.1
23.1
23.6
22.5
vs Stronger (14)
10.1
10.0
10.2
2.4
2.5
2.2
23.1
23.1
23.2
vs Similar (21)
8.9
8.2
9.4
3.8
4.6
3.2
23.3
24.1
22.8
vs Weaker (15)
9.7
8.4
10.9
4.3
5.1
3.5
22.6
23.6
21.8
% over line
52%
46%
58%
42%
50%
35%
62%
62%
62%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
58%
50%
65%
38%
38%
38%
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.4
9.4
2.5
2.5
2.6
25.2
24.9
25.4
vs Stronger (12)
10.0
9.3
10.8
3.3
4.0
2.7
23.1
25.5
20.2
vs Similar (20)
8.9
9.0
8.7
2.5
3.0
2.1
27.1
25.8
28.6
vs Weaker (18)
7.1
4.7
9.0
1.9
0.9
3.0
24.3
21.3
26.5
% over line
42%
29%
56%
40%
44%
36%
73%
76%
69%
% under line
58%
71%
44%
60%
56%
64%
27%
24%
31%
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Monaco
10.9
Lyon
10.1
Paris Saint Germain
10.1
Dijon
10.0
Guingamp
9.8
Nancy
9.8
Marseille
9.8
Lorient
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Montpellier
9.4
Angers
9.4
Bordeaux
9.2
Nantes
9.0
Metz
8.9
Rennes
8.9
Bastia
8.8
Lille
8.7
Toulouse
8.7
Caen
8.6
Nice
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lyon
4.8
Toulouse
4.5
Bastia
4.5
Bordeaux
4.0
Nantes
4.0
Lille
3.9
Saint Etienne
3.9
Metz
3.8
Nancy
3.7
Nice
3.7
Dijon
3.6
Angers
3.6
Guingamp
3.6
Lorient
3.5
Caen
3.5
Monaco
3.4
Rennes
3.4
Marseille
3.0
Montpellier
3.0
Paris Saint Germain
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Toulouse
28.8
Lyon
28.6
Lille
28.6
Bastia
27.3
Guingamp
26.7
Saint Etienne
26.7
Nantes
26.0
Nancy
25.8
Monaco
25.7
Nice
25.7
Bordeaux
25.5
Dijon
25.5
Metz
25.2
Marseille
25.1
Caen
24.8
Rennes
24.3
Angers
24.0
Montpellier
23.9
Lorient
23.1
Paris Saint Germain
21.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
43.9%
Under 9.5
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
52.8%
Under 3.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.3%
Under 21.5
31.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
1.00
0.33
0.73
0.27
1.27
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.00
0.00
0.60
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (13)
0.54
1.15
0.67
0.83
0.43
1.43
vs Weaker (8)
0.12
0.75
0.25
0.75
0.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.40
0.60
0.40
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.11
1.11
0.20
1.00
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (14)
0.79
0.43
0.71
0.43
0.86
0.43
vs Weaker (7)
0.00
0.57
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.87
0.87
0.80
0.87
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
1.11
0.80
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
0.69
0.77
0.67
0.50
0.71
1.00
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.75
1.25
0.75
1.00
0.75
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Metz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Metz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.30
0.87
1.40
0.20
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.78
0.60
1.80
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (14)
0.64
0.79
0.86
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.71
1.33
1.67
0.00
1.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Metz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Metz · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Idris Mohamed67%
Nampalys Mendy25%
Florian Miguel25%
Jessy Deminguet25%
Pape Moussa Fall25%
Jean Ruiz0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jessy Deminguet25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Giorgi Abuashvili0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Pape Moussa Fall0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Pape Moussa Fall50%
Giorgi Abuashvili25%
Nampalys Mendy0%
Jean Ruiz0%
Florian Miguel0%
Jessy Deminguet0%
Jonathan Fischer0%
Cristian Castro0%
Ibou Sane0%
Idris Mohamed0%
Believe Munongo0%
Hamza Kadamani0%
Nathan Mbala0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
MET (26)
€43m
MON (24)
€29m
NAN (26)
€13m
GUI (20)
€11m
BAS (19)
€7m
DIJ (20)
€5m
CAE (18)
€4m
Lorient's squad is €44m more valuable than Metz's (€87m vs €43m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
SE (10)
€54m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
NAN (9)
€5m
BAS (9)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
CAE (8)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€1m
Lorient's attack is €3m more valuable than Metz's (€20m vs €17m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
ANG (3)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
GUI (8)
€4m
NAN (6)
€2m
DIJ (6)
€2m
BAS (3)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
Lorient's midfield is €14m more valuable than Metz's (€32m vs €18m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
MON (10)
€12m
MET (10)
€8m
NAN (11)
€6m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
DIJ (7)
€2m
Lorient's defence is €27m more valuable than Metz's (€35m vs €8m).
France: Ligue 1 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
Lyon
Marseille
Bordeaux
Nantes
Saint Etienne
Rennes
Guingamp
Lille
Angers
Toulouse
Montpellier
Dijon
Caen
Nancy
Bastia