Lorient’s home advantage and a 42% chance of victory make a win the most probable outcome, with the model predicting a 1-1 draw as the single most likely scoreline at 13.3%. The expected total of 2.7 goals points to a modestly high-scoring affair, yet the most probable total is two goals, a 26% chance. Lorient averages 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded against similar opposition at home, while Toulouse, on the road, nets 1.62 and concedes 1.54. The match’s shape leans toward a tight contest, reflected in the 28% draw probability and a 30% chance of a Toulouse win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.2% with a 5% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.0% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 96.8% with a 4% edge, Under 6.5 at 95.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 94.2% with a 3% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 92.6%, and Away under 3.5 goals at 92.5%.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lorient win
42.6%
Avg Implied 36.9% · @ 2.56
Edge
+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.71
Marathonbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.64
Unibet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Draw
28.1%
Avg Implied 29.4% · @ 3.22
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.30
Marathonbet
3.25
Betano
3.25
Betfair
3.25
Dafabet
3.25
Toulouse win
29.3%
Avg Implied 33.8% · @ 2.80
Edge
-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.91
Marathonbet
2.86
Betano
2.85
Dafabet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
1.07
1.47
1.00
1.73
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
1.50
1.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
1.50
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.14
1.46
1.15
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (2)
5.00
0.50
-
-
5.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.47
0.93
1.21
1.62
1.69
vs Stronger (9)
1.00
2.00
0.67
1.83
1.67
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.45
1.30
1.14
0.86
1.62
1.54
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
75.9%
@ 1.34+5.4%
Under 1.5
24.1%
@ 3.19-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
Under
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.33
Unibet
3.25
Betano
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.0%
@ 2.09+4.5%
Under 2.5
50.0%
@ 1.75-4.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Bet365
2.10
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Betano
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.83
Betano
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.77
Unibet
1.74
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.1%
@ 3.62+2.1%
Under 3.5
71.9%
@ 1.27-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.75
10Bet
3.75
Betano
3.65
1xBet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
Both teams to score
Yes
55.1%
@ 1.78+2.9%
No
44.9%
@ 1.95-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.83
Betfair
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
No
Unibet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
William Hil
1.95
Betano
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.4%@ 5.81+5.7%
2-1
9.0%@ 9.32+4.3%
1-0
9.0%@ 7.51+3.1%
0-0
8.1%@ 8.31+2.8%
2-0
7.6%@ 11.44+3.7%
1-2
7.3%@ 9.81+2.7%
0-1
7.0%@ 7.83+1.3%
2-2
5.4%@ 13.03+2.0%
Lorient goals ↓
Toulouse goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
7.0%
4.9%
1.9%
0.6%
1
9.0%
13%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.6%
9.0%
5.4%
2.1%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.5%
2.7%
1.1%
0.3%
4
1.4%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lorient goals (down), columns = Toulouse goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lorient is 0.01 points worse than Toulouse in terms of average points per game (1.32 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lorient is 0.01 goals worse than Toulouse in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.42).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lorient is 0.11 goals worse than Toulouse in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lorient is 3.1 percentage points better than Toulouse in terms of average possession (45% vs 42%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lorient
For 4.0 · Against 5.7 · Total 9.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.8 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.8 · Against 10.7 · Total 19.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Toulouse
For 3.5 · Against 5.8 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 0.9 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.9 · Against 9.9 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.5
9.0
3.7
4.0
3.4
22.9
21.7
24.1
vs Stronger (10)
8.8
8.2
9.4
4.2
4.8
3.6
24.2
24.0
24.4
vs Similar (30)
8.8
8.6
9.1
3.7
4.1
3.3
22.5
21.7
23.4
vs Weaker (10)
8.3
8.3
8.3
3.0
2.2
3.5
22.8
18.8
25.5
% over line
40%
39%
40%
52%
50%
54%
51%
46%
56%
% under line
60%
61%
60%
48%
50%
46%
49%
54%
44%
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.2
9.4
4.3
4.1
4.5
25.5
25.9
25.0
vs Stronger (15)
9.1
8.6
9.7
4.0
3.6
4.4
24.3
25.0
23.6
vs Similar (34)
9.4
9.5
9.3
4.5
4.5
4.5
25.9
26.3
25.6
vs Weaker (1)
10.0
10.0
-
2.0
2.0
-
28.0
28.0
-
% over line
49%
54%
44%
66%
58%
73%
82%
79%
84%
% under line
51%
46%
56%
34%
42%
27%
18%
21%
16%
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.2%
@ 1.76-8.1%
Under 9.5
55.8%
@ 1.93+8.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.76
Under
Unibet
1.93
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.7%
Under 3.5
43.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.2%
Under 21.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lorient or Draw
62.7%
Avg Implied 66.3% · @ 1.43
Edge
-3.6%
43%
28%
29%
covers Lorient + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Lorient or Toulouse
74.2%
Avg Implied 70.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
+3.5%
43%
28%
29%
covers Lorient + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
Draw or Toulouse
63.1%
Avg Implied 63.0% · @ 1.50
Edge
+0.1%
43%
28%
29%
covers Draw + Toulouse
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
1xBet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lorient over/under 0.5
Over
79.1%
@ 1.30+7.7%
Under
20.9%
@ 3.25-7.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.50
Bet365
3.40
Betfair
3.30
Unibet
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Lorient over/under 1.5
Over
46.4%
@ 2.49+8.9%
Under
53.6%
@ 1.50-8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.54
Pinnacle
2.53
Bet365
2.50
Unibet
2.50
Under
1xBet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
Lorient over/under 2.5
Over
20.8%
@ 5.89+5.0%
Under
79.2%
@ 1.11-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.90
Unibet
5.80
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Lorient over/under 3.5
Over
7.4%
@ 13.50+0.3%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.02-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
17.00
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Toulouse over/under 0.5
Over
79.3%
@ 1.34+9.8%
Under
20.7%
@ 3.06-9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Unibet
3.10
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.04
Marathonbet
3.04
Toulouse over/under 1.5
Over
46.7%
@ 2.64+11.4%
Under
53.3%
@ 1.44-11.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.75
Pinnacle
2.71
Marathonbet
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Bet365
2.62
Under
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Toulouse over/under 2.5
Over
21.0%
@ 6.61+6.9%
Under
79.0%
@ 1.09-6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
7.50
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.90
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
Toulouse over/under 3.5
Over
7.5%
@ 15.00+1.2%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.02-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lorient, so a minus line means Lorient give that many goals of a start and Toulouse receive them. At -1, Lorient must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lorient win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lorient)
Lorient -2
7.4%
@ 11.03-0.7%
Draw -2
11.2%
@ 6.82-1.8%
Toulouse +2
81.4%
@ 1.13+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
13.00
Unibet
11.50
10Bet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.65
Draw
Unibet
7.50
Bet365
7.50
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.60
Away
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Handicap -1 (Lorient)
Lorient -1
18.6%
@ 5.06+0.9%
Draw -1
18.3%
@ 4.08-3.7%
Toulouse +1
63.1%
@ 1.49+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Draw
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
4.15
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
10Bet
3.90
Away
Bet365
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Unibet
1.46
Betfair
1.44
Handicap +1 (Lorient)
Lorient +1
62.7%
@ 1.42-0.6%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 4.27-2.6%
Toulouse -1
18.9%
@ 5.69+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.46
Unibet
1.44
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.36
Draw
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.00
Away
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.40
Unibet
5.30
Handicap +2 (Lorient)
Lorient +2
81.1%
@ 1.10+0.5%
Draw +2
11.4%
@ 7.15-1.1%
Toulouse -2
7.5%
@ 12.74+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Bet365
8.50
Betfair
8.50
10Bet
7.00
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
17.00
Betfair
15.00
10Bet
13.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
6.70
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.73
0.47
0.73
0.33
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.17
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.25
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.45
0.69
0.54
0.44
0.33
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
0.50
-
-
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.63
0.36
0.43
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.78
0.17
0.67
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.80
0.60
0.43
0.29
1.00
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.3%
@ 1.43+8.5%
Under 0.5
25.7%
@ 2.74-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
Under
Pinnacle
2.86
10Bet
2.80
William Hil
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.75
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.2%
@ 2.98+5.8%
Under 1.5
62.8%
@ 1.36-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.10
Pinnacle
3.03
Marathonbet
3.02
1xBet
3.02
Bet365
3.00
Under
10Bet
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 7.65+2.3%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.06-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
9.00
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HT
Over
55.4%
@ 2.12+11.5%
Under
44.6%
@ 1.66-11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.15
Marathonbet
2.14
Unibet
2.14
1xBet
2.10
Under
10Bet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.67
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Lorient over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.5%
@ 6.78+2.9%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.07-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
6.75
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.25
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Lorient over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.5%
@ 12.50-4.0%
Under
96.5%
@ 1.01+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Toulouse over/under 0.5 HT
Over
41.1%
@ 2.20-1.1%
Under
58.9%
@ 1.61+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
Marathonbet
2.21
Unibet
2.17
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
Unibet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.59
Toulouse over/under 1.5 HT
Over
11.5%
@ 7.10-1.6%
Under
88.5%
@ 1.07+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Betano
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Under
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
Toulouse over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
@ 13.00-5.7%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.53
1.00
0.80
vs Stronger (6)
1.00
0.83
0.50
0.00
1.25
1.25
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.68
0.77
0.62
0.67
0.78
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Toulouse) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Toulouse
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.83
0.57
0.79
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
1.22
0.50
1.17
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.70
0.71
0.57
0.62
0.77
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.2%
@ 1.26+5.3%
Under 0.5
20.8%
@ 3.57-5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.65
Betano
3.60
1xBet
3.58
Marathonbet
3.58
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
47.6%
@ 2.23+5.6%
Under 1.5
52.4%
@ 1.62-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.33
Marathonbet
2.26
1xBet
2.26
Bet365
2.20
Betano
2.20
Under
Marathonbet
1.66
1xBet
1.66
Betano
1.65
Bet365
1.62
William Hil
1.62
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
21.0%
@ 4.91+2.0%
Under 2.5
79.0%
@ 1.15-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.20
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2H
Over
57.3%
@ 1.79+5.5%
Under
42.7%
@ 1.93-5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.79
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Lorient over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.5%
@ 4.96+3.8%
Under
77.5%
@ 1.14-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.25
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
5.00
Betano
4.60
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Lorient over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.4%
@ 10.25-2.7%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.03+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Toulouse over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.1%
@ 1.84+1.5%
Under
47.9%
@ 1.88-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.84
Marathonbet
1.84
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.91
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Toulouse over/under 1.5 2H
Over
15.9%
@ 5.29-1.6%
Under
84.1%
@ 1.12+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
5.75
Marathonbet
5.25
1xBet
5.25
Betano
4.90
Under
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
Toulouse over/under 2.5 2H
Over
3.0%
@ 10.75-5.7%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Under 7.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.0%
Under 6.5
95.9%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-0.2%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
93.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
Home under 3.5 goals
92.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-0.3%
Away under 3.5 goals
92.5%
1.02
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.02
-
-
-
-1.2%
Under 5.5
90.1%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-2.8%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
88.5%
1.07
10Bet
1.08
Betano
1.08
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
+1.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-2.3%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.1%
1.12
Betano
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
10Bet
1.10
-
+1.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.5%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Unibet
1.05
-2.9%
Away +2 handicap
81.4%
1.13
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.13
Unibet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
+2.5%
Home +2 handicap
81.1%
1.10
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
Unibet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
+0.5%
Away over 0.5 goals
79.3%
1.34
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.36
10Bet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
+9.8%
Home under 2.5 goals
79.2%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
10Bet
1.10
-5.0%
Over 0.5 2H goals
79.2%
1.26
10Bet
1.28
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
+5.3%
Under 4.5
79.1%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.08
Unibet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.05
-7.6%
Home over 0.5 goals
79.1%
1.30
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
10Bet
1.30
+7.7%
Away under 2.5 goals
79.0%
1.09
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Unibet
1.08
-6.9%
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.0%
1.15
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
William Hil
1.15
-2.0%
Under 5.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
1.36
Unibet
1.36
-
-
-
-
+10.4%
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
1xBet
1.14
10Bet
1.12
-
-3.8%
Over 2.5 cards
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.9%
1.34
Betano
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Bet365
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
+5.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.43
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.47
Marathonbet
1.47
Unibet
1.41
William Hil
1.40
+8.5%
Home or Away
74.2%
1.34
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Bet365
1.36
William Hil
1.35
Unibet
1.33
+3.5%
Under 3.5
71.9%
1.27
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Unibet
1.26
-2.1%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lorient · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng44%
Pablo Pagis28%
Aiyegun Tosin18%
Noah Cadiou13%
Jean-Victor Makengo11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Sambou Soumano9%
Théo Le Bris6%
Karim Dermane6%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Arsène Kouassi6%
Panos Katseris6%
Igor Silva5%
Laurent Abergel3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Abdoulaye Faye42%
Laurent Abergel27%
Bamo Meïté21%
Panos Katseris17%
Darlin Yongwa16%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng16%
Mohamed Bamba16%
Arsène Kouassi15%
Bingourou Kamara14%
Montassar Talbi13%
Arthur Avom Ebong12%
Noah Cadiou6%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Igor Silva5%
Aiyegun Tosin4%
Pablo Pagis3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arsène Kouassi18%
Pablo Pagis12%
Panos Katseris11%
Igor Silva11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Bamo Meïté10%
Théo Le Bris9%
Sambou Soumano6%
Karim Dermane6%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Darlin Yongwa4%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng4%
Noah Cadiou3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Arthur Avom Ebong3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Aiyegun Tosin0%
Nathaniel Adjei0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng32%
Pablo Pagis25%
Aiyegun Tosin11%
Mohamed Bamba11%
Arthur Avom Ebong6%
Jean-Victor Makengo6%
Nathaniel Adjei6%
Noah Cadiou3%
Sambou Soumano3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Bingourou Kamara0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Darlin Yongwa0%
Joel Mugisha Mvuka0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Karim Dermane0%
Panos Katseris0%
Arsène Kouassi0%
Abdoulaye Faye0%
Toulouse
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
C. Tapé33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
N. Schmidt67%
R. Nicolaisen33%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
S. Hidalgo33%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
S. Hidalgo0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
Julián Vignolo0%
C. Tapé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
S. Hidalgo67%
Cristian Cásseres Jr.33%
Julián Vignolo33%
R. Nicolaisen0%
N. Schmidt0%
M. McKenzie0%
Guillaume Restes0%
T. Jørgensen0%
Ismail Diallo0%
C. Tapé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lorient's squad is €28m less valuable than Toulouse's (€87m vs €115m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lorient's attack is €10m less valuable than Toulouse's (€20m vs €30m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lorient's midfield is €7m less valuable than Toulouse's (€32m vs €39m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lorient's defence is €11m less valuable than Toulouse's (€35m vs €46m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Nice
Auxerre