Loughgall’s recent unbeaten run, highlighted by a 3-3 draw against Warrenpoint Town, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter. The model projects a 41% chance of a home win, a 23% draw, and a 36% away win, making a victory for Loughgall the most likely outcome. The expected total of 3.7 goals suggests plenty of firepower, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.2% probability. Loughgall averages 1.92 goals scored and 2.15 conceded at home against similarly ranked opponents, while Glenavon, playing away, averages 1.78 goals scored and 1.11 conceded. The suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 89.3%, BTTS Yes at 72.0%, and Over 2.5 goals at 71.7%. The model’s selection probabilities are 41% for a home win, 23% for a draw, and 36% for an away win.
Results analysis
The Pythia model’s prediction proved accurate as Loughgall secured a 3-1 home win, extending their unbeaten run. The model had named a Home win as the favourite with a 41% probability, and the result matched that call. The model’s selections also performed well: Over 1.5 goals hit with an 89.3% probability, BTTS Yes hit at 72.0%, and Over 2.5 hit at 71.7%. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the home side’s advantage and the model’s overall accuracy. The match delivered on the predicted outcomes, with the home side’s form and the away side’s recent win both contributing to the result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loughgall win✓ Hit
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win✗ Miss
36.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.93
1.69
2.00
1.36
1.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.25
0.67
1.33
0.80
2.80
vs Similar (22)
1.82
1.82
1.92
2.15
1.67
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.70
1.20
1.27
1.47
2.13
vs Stronger (12)
0.75
2.67
0.50
1.67
1.00
3.67
vs Similar (18)
1.72
1.06
1.67
1.00
1.78
1.11
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.3%
Under 1.5
10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
71.7%
Under 2.5
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.9%
Under 3.5
49.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
72.0%
No
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%
2-1
8.0%
1-2
7.6%
2-2
7.2%
3-1 ✓
5.1%
3-2
4.6%
1-3
4.6%
2-0
4.5%
Loughgall goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.3%
3.6%
4.0%
2.4%
1.1%
1
3.8%
9.2%
7.6%
4.6%
2.1%
2
4.5%
8.0%
7.2%
4.3%
2.0%
3
2.8%
5.1%
4.6%
2.8%
1.2%
4
1.4%
2.4%
2.2%
1.3%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Loughgall is 0.21 points better than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Loughgall is 0.39 goals better than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Loughgall is 0.05 goals better than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 1.84).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.93
0.56
0.88
0.57
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.91
0.69
1.00
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.73
0.53
0.40
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
1.00
0.17
0.33
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (18)
0.94
0.56
0.78
0.44
1.11
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.00
1.12
1.12
0.79
0.86
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.25
0.67
1.00
0.20
1.40
vs Similar (22)
1.18
0.91
1.23
1.15
1.11
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.97
0.67
0.87
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.42
1.67
0.33
1.33
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.50
0.89
0.56
0.67
0.44
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →