The model favours an away win, with Glenavon FC expected to edge Loughgall 1-1 or 1-2, the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12% probability. The match is projected to see an average of three goals, but the most common total is two goals, with a 23% chance. Loughgall’s home form shows they average 1.2 goals scored and 2.4 conceded against similar opponents, while Glenavon’s away record is 0.78 scored and 1.67 conceded versus comparable teams. The probabilities for the outcomes are 30% home win, 26% draw and 44% away win. The model’s selection includes an Over 1.5 goal pick at 81.6% probability, marked as a hit. This preview highlights Glenavon’s slight edge, the expected goal volume, and the key statistical contrasts between the sides.
Results analysis
The match saw Glenavon FC secure a 0-2 away victory, extending their recent winning streak and confirming the model’s prediction that the away side would triumph. The pre-match favourite, Away win, was assigned a 44% probability and proved correct. The model’s single selection, Over 1.5, with an 81.6% chance, also hit, as the game produced two goals. Loughgall, unbeaten in their last five, failed to score, while Glenavon, coming off a win, kept a clean sheet. The final score of 0-2 matched the actual result, and the model’s picks all performed as forecasted.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loughgall win✗ Miss
29.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
2.23
1.21
2.50
0.81
2.00
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
2.62
1.25
2.75
0.25
2.50
vs Similar (22)
1.09
2.09
1.20
2.40
1.00
1.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.33
1.31
1.44
0.71
1.21
vs Stronger (11)
0.91
1.27
1.17
2.00
0.60
0.40
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.37
1.40
1.10
0.78
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.6%
Under 1.5
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
58.4%
Under 2.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
36.0%
Under 3.5
64.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.4%
No
38.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.0%
1-2
9.2%
2-1
7.4%
0-1
7.0%
0-2 ✓
6.8%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
5.9%
1-0
5.4%
Loughgall goals ↓
Glenavon FC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.9%
7.0%
6.8%
3.8%
1.6%
1
5.4%
12%
9.2%
5.2%
2.2%
2
4.4%
7.4%
6.2%
3.5%
1.5%
3
2.0%
3.3%
2.8%
1.6%
0.7%
4
0.7%
1.1%
0.9%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Glenavon FC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Linfield
2.24
Larne
1.66
Cliftonville FC
1.60
Glentoran
1.56
Dungannon Swifts
1.50
Portadown
1.47
Coleraine FC
1.45
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.24
Glenavon FC
1.21
Carrick Rangers
0.95
Loughgall
0.58
Annagh United
0.00
Loughgall is 0.63 points worse than Glenavon FC in terms of average points per game (0.58 vs 1.21).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Linfield
1.82
Cliftonville FC
1.55
Annagh United
1.50
Coleraine FC
1.40
Dungannon Swifts
1.34
Portadown
1.26
Glentoran
1.26
Ballymena United
1.24
Larne
1.21
Crusaders FC
1.21
Glenavon FC
1.11
Carrick Rangers
1.00
Loughgall
0.95
Loughgall is 0.16 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals scored per game (0.95 vs 1.11).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Linfield
0.74
Larne
0.87
Glentoran
1.00
Cliftonville FC
1.02
Portadown
1.18
Glenavon FC
1.24
Dungannon Swifts
1.26
Coleraine FC
1.30
Crusaders FC
1.38
Ballymena United
1.42
Carrick Rangers
1.55
Loughgall
2.24
Annagh United
4.00
Loughgall is 1.00 goals worse than Glenavon FC in terms of goals conceded per game (2.24 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.13
0.79
1.14
0.19
1.12
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.25
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (22)
0.45
1.00
0.70
1.10
0.25
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.80
0.31
0.81
0.36
0.79
vs Stronger (11)
0.27
0.82
0.33
1.17
0.20
0.40
vs Similar (19)
0.37
0.79
0.30
0.60
0.44
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
1.10
0.43
1.36
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.12
0.25
1.50
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (22)
0.64
1.09
0.50
1.30
0.75
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Glenavon FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Glenavon FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
1.00
0.62
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
0.45
0.83
0.83
0.40
0.00
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.58
1.10
0.50
0.33
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Glenavon FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (23)
€4m
CF (23)
€3m
GLE (24)
€3m
DS (21)
€3m
LIN (17)
€2m
CF (23)
€2m
BU (20)
€2m
CR (20)
€2m
POR (16)
€1m
CF (18)
€1m
GF (13)
€1m
LOU (3)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (6)
€1m
CF (8)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
GLE (10)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
POR (6)
€1m
BU (3)
€1m
DS (6)
€0m
LIN (4)
€0m
CR (6)
€0m
GF (3)
€0m
LOU (1)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (7)
€1m
DS (7)
€1m
BU (8)
€1m
CF (5)
€1m
GLE (5)
€1m
LIN (6)
€1m
CR (6)
€1m
CF (4)
€1m
CF (6)
€0m
POR (3)
€0m
GF (1)
€0m
LOU (0)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LAR (10)
€2m
DS (8)
€1m
GLE (9)
€1m
LIN (7)
€1m
CF (10)
€1m
BU (9)
€1m
CF (9)
€1m
POR (7)
€1m
CR (8)
€1m
GF (9)
€1m
CF (7)
€1m
LOU (2)
€0m
Loughgall and Glenavon FC have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Linfield
Cliftonville FC
Larne
Glentoran
Coleraine FC
Dungannon Swifts
Portadown
Crusaders FC
Ballymena United
Carrick Rangers
Annagh United