Loughgall’s attacking output, averaging 2.1 goals per match, coupled with a defensive average of 2.2 conceded, sets the stage for a high-scoring encounter, and the model projects an average of 3.4 goals. The most likely total is three, with a 22% chance, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1 at 10%. The model favours a home win, with a 56% probability, while a draw sits at 23% and an away win at 21%. Newry City AFC, scoring 1.38 and conceding 2.0 on the road against similar opposition, will need to tighten up defensively. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 86% probability. Home win 56%, draw 23%, away win 21%. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 carries an 86% chance. The match is expected to be a lively affair, with both sides likely to find the net.
Results analysis
The draw shocked the pre-match favourite, Loughgall, who had been unbeaten in their last five with a 3-3 stalemate against Warrenpoint Town. The model had tipped a home win at 56% probability, but the result was a 0-0 stalemate, so the call was wrong. The match also saw the model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals at 86%, miss. The final score of 0-0 confirmed the actual result of a draw, and the expected total of 3.4 goals was far from reality. The outcome underlined how even a strong home form can falter against a resilient Newry City AFC side.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Loughgall win✗ Miss
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC win✗ Miss
21.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Loughgall
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.87
1.60
1.93
1.47
1.80
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.38
0.50
1.25
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (21)
2.00
1.67
2.10
2.20
1.91
1.18
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
2.37
0.56
2.31
0.93
2.43
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
2.83
0.67
2.67
0.33
3.00
vs Similar (18)
0.89
2.06
0.50
2.10
1.38
2.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-20pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.0%
Under 1.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
65.7%
Under 2.5
34.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
64.0%
No
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.0%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
6.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.7%
3-0
5.4%
Loughgall goals ↓
Newry City AFC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.4%
2.7%
1.1%
0.4%
1
6.3%
10%
5.7%
2.4%
0.8%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.4%
6.8%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.9%
3.6%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Loughgall goals (down), columns = Newry City AFC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Larne
2.37
Linfield
2.24
Cliftonville FC
1.97
Crusaders FC
1.75
Glentoran
1.54
Institute
1.50
Carrick Rangers
1.28
Dungannon Swifts
1.24
Coleraine FC
1.23
Loughgall
1.18
Glenavon FC
0.97
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.45
Loughgall is 0.74 points better than Newry City AFC in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Larne
2.24
Linfield
2.16
Cliftonville FC
2.11
Glentoran
1.90
Dungannon Swifts
1.68
Crusaders FC
1.68
Loughgall
1.58
Carrick Rangers
1.41
Coleraine FC
1.30
Glenavon FC
1.18
Ballymena United
0.78
Newry City AFC
0.68
Institute
0.50
Loughgall is 0.89 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 0.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Larne
0.55
Institute
1.00
Linfield
1.05
Cliftonville FC
1.13
Crusaders FC
1.15
Glentoran
1.18
Ballymena United
1.77
Loughgall
1.79
Coleraine FC
1.80
Dungannon Swifts
1.82
Glenavon FC
1.84
Carrick Rangers
1.92
Newry City AFC
2.61
Loughgall is 0.82 goals better than Newry City AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.79 vs 2.61).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Loughgall
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.93
0.73
0.93
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.12
1.12
0.00
0.50
0.25
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.86
0.86
1.00
1.10
0.73
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.27
0.31
1.19
0.43
1.36
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.42
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.83
vs Similar (18)
0.44
1.17
0.20
1.30
0.75
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Loughgall
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.93
0.87
1.00
0.87
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.25
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
1.14
0.81
1.10
1.10
1.18
0.55
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Newry City AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Newry City AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
1.10
0.25
1.12
0.50
1.07
vs Stronger (12)
0.25
1.42
0.17
1.67
0.33
1.17
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.89
0.30
0.80
0.62
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Loughgall) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Loughgall over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Loughgall over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Newry City AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Northern-Ireland: Premiership 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Northern-Ireland: Premiership stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Larne
Linfield
Cliftonville FC
Crusaders FC
Glentoran
Carrick Rangers
Coleraine FC
Dungannon Swifts
Glenavon FC
Ballymena United
Institute