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Lovćen vs Ibar Result & Analysis

Date: 02/04/2025
Time: 12:00
Final 4-0
Lovćen
Lovćen
Vs
46%
30%
24%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Ibar
Ibar
Montenegro: Second League
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Lovćen win✓ Hit
46.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ibar win✗ Miss
23.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W14L11D20W22D22D11D10W21W11DA·KOM03/11H·MLA09/11A·IBA17/11H·ISK23/11H·MLA01/03A·GRB08/03H·IGA12/03A·RUD16/03H·KOM24/03A·MLA29/03
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.271.231.401.131.131.33
vs Stronger (19)1.001.471.331.220.701.70
vs Similar (11)1.730.821.501.002.000.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ibar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IbarIbar

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-331W01L11D02L12L00D02L21W10W00DH·MLA30/10A·ISK09/11H·LOV17/11A·MLA23/11A·GRB01/12H·IGA01/03A·RUD08/03H·KOM12/03A·MLA16/03H·ISK29/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.140.910.910.641.36
vs Stronger (3)1.330.333.001.000.500.00
vs Similar (8)0.381.250.200.800.672.00
vs Weaker (11)0.911.271.201.000.671.50
Clean sheet %23% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%11%021%128%220%312%45%53%6+
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.9%
Under 1.5
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
45.9%
No
54.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.0%
1-0
12.7%
0-0
11.4%
2-0
9.6%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
8.0%
1-2
5.8%
3-0
4.4%
Lovćen goals ↓
Ibar goals →
01234
011%8.0%4.2%1.3%0.3%
113%14%5.8%1.8%0.4%
29.6%8.8%4.0%1.2%0.3%
34.4%4.0%1.8%0.6%0.1%
41.5%1.4%0.6%0.2%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lovćen goals (down), columns = Ibar goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Mladost DG
2.19
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.88
Lovćen
1.59
Igalo
1.50
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.31
Grbalj
1.16
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.03
Kom
0.88
Ibar
0.75
Lovćen is 0.84 points better than Ibar in terms of average points per game (1.59 vs 0.75).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Rudar (Montenegro)
1.75
Mladost DG
1.69
Igalo
1.62
Lovćen
1.56
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.31
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.16
Grbalj
1.03
Kom
0.88
Ibar
0.72
Lovćen is 0.84 goals better than Ibar in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 0.72).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Mladost DG
0.75
Rudar (Montenegro)
0.97
Igalo
1.09
Iskra (Montenegro)
1.12
Lovćen
1.19
Grbalj
1.53
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.69
Ibar
1.69
Kom
1.69
Lovćen is 0.50 goals better than Ibar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.19 vs 1.69).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

LovćenLovćen

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W13L10W00D21W10W00D00D11D10WA·KOM03/11H·MLA09/11A·IBA17/11H·ISK23/11H·MLA01/03A·GRB08/03H·IGA12/03A·RUD16/03H·KOM24/03A·MLA29/03
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.500.730.470.470.53
vs Stronger (19)0.530.580.670.440.400.70
vs Similar (11)0.730.360.830.500.600.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Ibar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IbarIbar

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-330W00D01L00D11D00D00D10W00D00DH·MLA30/10A·ISK09/11H·LOV17/11A·MLA23/11A·GRB01/12H·IGA01/03A·RUD08/03H·KOM12/03A·MLA16/03H·ISK29/03
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.410.450.450.450.360.45
vs Stronger (3)1.000.003.000.000.000.00
vs Similar (8)0.250.500.000.600.670.33
vs Weaker (11)0.360.550.400.400.330.67
Clean sheet %59% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ibar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ibar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ibar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

LovćenLovćen

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L01L20W01L12L11D10W10W01LA·KOM03/11H·MLA09/11A·IBA17/11H·ISK23/11H·MLA01/03A·GRB08/03H·IGA12/03A·RUD16/03H·KOM24/03A·MLA29/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.670.670.670.80
vs Stronger (19)0.470.890.670.780.301.00
vs Similar (11)1.000.450.670.501.400.40
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ibar) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

IbarIbar

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L10W02L01L00D02L11D10W00DH·MLA30/10A·ISK09/11H·LOV17/11A·MLA23/11A·GRB01/12H·IGA01/03A·RUD08/03H·KOM12/03A·MLA16/03H·ISK29/03
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.360.680.450.450.270.91
vs Stronger (3)0.330.330.001.000.500.00
vs Similar (8)0.120.750.200.200.001.67
vs Weaker (11)0.550.730.800.600.330.83
Clean sheet %45% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Lovćen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lovćen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lovćen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ibar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ibar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ibar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.580.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MD (23)
€3m
GRB (2)
€0m
R( (3)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MD (8)
€1m
GRB (1)
€0m
LOV (2)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
R( (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MD (5)
€1m
R( (1)
€0m
GRB (0)
€0m
KOM (0)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MD (10)
€1m
R( (2)
€0m
GRB (1)
€0m
KOM (1)
€0m
LOV (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
LOV wins
1
Draws
1
IBA wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Lovćen vs Ibar · H/A from LOV
DateH/AGameScore
17/11/24AIbar Vs LOV1-1
22/09/24HLOV Vs Ibar1-2

LovćenLovćen

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25AMladost Lješkopolje Vs LOV1-1
24/03/25HLOV Vs Kom2-1
16/03/25ARudar (Montenegro) Vs LOV0-1
12/03/25HLOV Vs Igalo1-1
08/03/25AGrbalj Vs LOV2-2
01/03/25HLOV Vs Mladost DG2-2
23/11/24HLOV Vs Iskra (Montenegro)2-0
17/11/24AIbar Vs LOV1-1
09/11/24HLOV Vs Mladost Lješkopolje1-4
03/11/24AKom Vs LOV1-3

IbarIbar

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/03/25HIBA Vs Iskra (Montenegro)0-0
16/03/25AMladost Lješkopolje Vs IBA0-1
12/03/25HIBA Vs Kom2-1
08/03/25ARudar (Montenegro) Vs IBA2-0
01/03/25HIBA Vs Igalo0-0
01/12/24AGrbalj Vs IBA2-1
23/11/24AMladost DG Vs IBA2-0
17/11/24HIBA Vs Lovćen1-1
09/11/24AIskra (Montenegro) Vs IBA1-0
30/10/24HIBA Vs Mladost Lješkopolje3-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Lovćen
Lovćen
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 4 Wins / 5 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWD1.30
HomeLWDDW1.50
AwayWDDWD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%25%
AVG goals2.562.582.54
Over 1.5 %72%77%67%
Over 2.5 %50%54%46%
Over 3.5 %30%23%38%
Scored1.201.311.08
Conceded1.361.271.46
BTTS56%62%50%
Clean Sheet32%35%29%
Corners---
Cards---
Ibar
Ibar
Montenegro: Second League
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWWD0.95
HomeWDDWD1.18
AwayLLLLW0.73
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %23%27%18%
AVG goals1.911.822.00
Over 1.5 %64%64%64%
Over 2.5 %27%27%27%
Over 3.5 %9%9%9%
Scored0.770.910.64
Conceded1.140.911.36
BTTS41%45%36%
Clean Sheet23%27%18%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Mladost DGMladost DG3270
66%
2.2
5424+30
2.4
78%
41%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.70.8
-
2Rudar (Montenegro)Rudar (Montenegro)3260
53%
1.9
5631+25
2.7
78%
47%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.0
-
3LovćenLovćen3251
44%
1.6
5038+12
2.8
78%
50%
31%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.2
-
4IgaloIgalo3248
41%
1.5
5235+17
2.7
75%
41%
28%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.1
-
5Iskra (Montenegro)Iskra (Montenegro)3242
34%
1.3
3736+1
2.3
72%
34%
16%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.1
-
6GrbaljGrbalj3237
28%
1.2
3349-16
2.6
81%
31%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.5
-
7Mladost LješkopoljeMladost Lješkopolje3233
22%
1.0
4254-12
3.0
84%
53%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
8KomKom3228
22%
0.9
2854-26
2.6
66%
50%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.7
-
9IbarIbar3224
19%
0.8
2354-31
2.4
69%
41%
25%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.71.7
-
Montenegro: Second League 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Montenegro: Second League stats & trends →

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