PythiaFootballBETA
Aarhus heads to Lyngby in the Denmark: Superliga, looking to build on their unbeaten streak. The visitors' recent form has been impressive, with four draws in their last five matches, while Lyngby comes off a defeat against Randers FC. The model predicts an away win, with Aarhus having a 41% chance of victory, compared to Lyngby's 31% and a 28% draw.
The expected total goals are 2.7, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 13.5%. Aarhus has averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded when playing away against stronger opponents, while Lyngby has averaged 2.43 goals scored and 1.14 conceded at home against stronger opponents.
The model's selections include Over 1.5, with a 76% probability, and Under 3.5, with a 71.9% probability and an 8% edge. Aarhus has a 41% chance of winning, Lyngby a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
Aarhus pulled off a stunning upset at Lyngby, extending their unbeaten run to six matches. The final score was a 2-2 draw, defying the predicted outcome. The model's selection, Aarhus to win, was incorrect, as they failed to capitalize on their 41% chance of victory. In contrast, Lyngby's recent form was a concern, having lost their last four matches, including a 0-2 defeat to Randers FC. The model's call on Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 76%, while Under 3.5 goals missed, despite a 71.9% chance of success.
Lyngby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 2.10 | 1.23 | 2.13 | 1.00 | 2.07 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 2.12 | 1.12 | 2.15 | 0.92 | 2.08 | 1.31 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 3.00 | 1.50 | 4.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+4pp vs league) | |||||
Aarhus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (24) | 2.04 | 1.04 | 2.33 | 1.17 | 1.75 | 0.92 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Aarhus goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 3.5% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 7.2% | 13% | 8.9% | 4.3% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 5.2% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| 3 | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
LyngbyAarhusLyngby| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.0 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 22.7 | 22.7 | 22.8 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 10.9 | 10.7 | 11.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 24.0 | 25.0 | 23.2 |
| vs Similar (40) | 7.4 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 21.6 | 21.0 | 22.2 |
| vs Weaker (2) | - | - | - | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 60% | 57% | 62% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 53% | 57% | 50% |
| % under line | 40% | 43% | 38% | 86% | 83% | 88% | 47% | 43% | 50% |
Aarhus| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 23.3 | 23.1 | 23.5 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 10.0 | 10.2 | 9.8 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 22.8 | 21.8 | 23.8 |
| vs Similar (37) | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 23.5 | 23.5 | 23.5 |
| vs Weaker (1) | - | - | - | 0.0 | - | 0.0 | - | - | - |
| % over line | 39% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 52% | 40% | 64% | 64% | 64% |
| % under line | 61% | 64% | 59% | 54% | 48% | 60% | 36% | 36% | 36% |
Lyngby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.60 | 1.07 | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 0.88 | 0.62 | 1.08 | 0.38 | 0.69 | 0.85 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Aarhus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.30 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.27 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| vs Similar (24) | 0.88 | 0.38 | 0.92 | 0.42 | 0.83 | 0.33 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+47pp vs league) | |||||
Lyngby| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 0.63 | 1.07 | 0.60 | 1.20 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (26) | 1.23 | 0.50 | 1.08 | 0.54 | 1.38 | 0.46 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
Aarhus| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.70 | 1.20 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (6) | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.17 | 0.67 | 1.42 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 0.58 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 83.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 5.5 cards | 81.7% | 1.48 | 1.48 | - | - | - | - | +19.5% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 76.0% | 1.20 | 1.23 | 1.22 | 1.21 | 1.20 | 1.20 | -2.4% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 73.0% | 1.33 | 1.33 | - | - | - | - | +5.6% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 71.9% | 1.46 | 1.50 | 1.49 | 1.48 | 1.48 | 1.48 | +7.7% | ✗ Miss |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 70.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/24 | A | 2-1 | |
| 22/09/24 | H | 0-0 | |
| 22/10/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 27/08/23 | A | 1-0 | |
| 30/10/22 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/08/22 | A | 1-0 |
Lyngby| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 3-2 | |
| 31/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 25/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/05/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 24/04/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 21/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 3-1 |
Aarhus| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/07/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 25/07/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 6-2 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 20/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 10/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 06/04/26 | A | 1-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Brondby | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 40% | 40% | 11.8 | 80% | 5.2 | 100% | 26.8 | 80% | 54 | 18 | 11 | 25 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 51% |
| 2 |  Viborg | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 11.8 | 80% | 2.6 | 20% | 27.0 | 100% | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 48% |
| 3 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | 12.8 | 75% | 3.5 | 75% | 20.8 | 25% | 80 | 31 | 18 | 30 | 1.5 | 0.2 | 57% |
| 4 |  FC Midtjylland | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 10.5 | 50% | 4.0 | 50% | 32.8 | 100% | 120 | 62 | 27 | 32 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 54% |
| 5 |  FC Copenhagen | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 9.2 | 75% | 3.0 | 50% | 23.8 | 50% | 115 | 23 | 59 | 33 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 55% |
| 6 |  AC Horsens | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 11.8 | 80% | 3.8 | 60% | 25.2 | 80% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | - |
| 7 |  Odense | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 13.8 | 80% | 3.2 | 40% | 22.0 | 80% | 18 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 8 |  Silkeborg | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2.4 | 60% | 40% | 40% | 10.4 | 60% | 3.6 | 80% | 20.6 | 40% | 26 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 9 |  Randers FC | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 20% | 12.8 | 100% | 2.0 | 20% | 23.6 | 40% | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 10 | Aarhus | 4 | 3 | 0% | 0.8 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 75% | 50% | 12.5 | 75% | 4.5 | 75% | 28.2 | 75% | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 54% |
| 11 | Lyngby | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 3.2 | 100% | 60% | 40% | 9.4 | 60% | 4.4 | 80% | 30.8 | 100% | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 11.4 | 80% | 3.2 | 40% | 24.8 | 80% | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 44% |