Lyon’s recent draw against Le Havre and Auxerre’s rebound after two defeats set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model forecasting an average of 3.2 goals. The most likely total is three, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.4% chance. Home advantage is clear: Lyon, playing at home against a weaker side, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Auxerre, on the road against a stronger opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. The model’s pick is a home win, with probabilities of 60% for Lyon, 22% for a draw, and 18% for Auxerre. Suggested picks include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.2%, Under 7.5 at 98.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.0% (edge 6%), Away under 3.5 goals at 97.1% (edge 1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.0% (edge 5%), Under 6.5 at 95.0% (edge 0), Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.8% (edge 2%), and Home +2 handicap at 92.7% (edge 0).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lyon win
59.6%
Avg Implied 64.8% · @ 1.46
Edge
-5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.50
10Bet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
Betano
1.47
Draw
22.4%
Avg Implied 21.0% · @ 4.52
Edge
+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
4.90
1xBet
4.78
Pinnacle
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Betano
4.65
Auxerre win
18.0%
Avg Implied 14.2% · @ 6.66
Edge
+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
7.50
Betano
7.50
Pinnacle
7.21
Marathonbet
7.10
1xBet
7.06
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.23
1.81
1.31
1.43
1.14
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
1.69
1.56
1.90
1.50
1.33
1.67
vs Weaker (13)
1.54
0.85
1.67
1.00
1.43
0.71
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.47
1.07
1.20
1.13
1.73
vs Stronger (11)
1.09
1.82
0.80
1.60
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (19)
1.11
1.26
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.6%
@ 1.19+5.0%
Under 1.5
16.4%
@ 4.40-5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Superbet
4.40
Betano
4.40
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.7%
@ 1.65+4.1%
Under 2.5
38.3%
@ 2.24-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.72
Unibet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.67
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.67
Under
Pinnacle
2.34
1xBet
2.31
Bet365
2.30
Betano
2.27
Betfair
2.25
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.4%
@ 2.61+3.3%
Under 3.5
60.6%
@ 1.48-3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.75
Superbet
2.67
10Bet
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Superbet
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Both teams to score
Yes
59.1%
@ 1.78+6.8%
No
40.9%
@ 1.95-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.79
No
William Hil
2.00
Superbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
10Bet
1.95
Bet365
1.95
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.4%@ 7.90+4.7%
2-1
9.9%@ 7.49+3.9%
2-0
9.1%@ 7.05+2.7%
1-0
7.7%@ 7.12+1.4%
3-1
6.9%@ 10.51+2.6%
3-0
6.4%@ 9.89+1.8%
2-2
5.4%@ 15.08+2.4%
1-2
5.1%@ 17.30+2.5%
Lyon goals ↓
Auxerre goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.1%
3.6%
2.5%
0.9%
0.2%
1
7.7%
10%
5.1%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.1%
9.9%
5.4%
2.0%
0.5%
3
6.4%
6.9%
3.8%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.3%
3.6%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lyon goals (down), columns = Auxerre goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Lyon is 0.76 points better than Auxerre in terms of average points per game (1.76 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Lyon is 0.56 goals better than Auxerre in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Lyon is 0.12 goals better than Auxerre in terms of goals conceded per game (1.18 vs 1.29).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Lyon is 10.7 percentage points better than Auxerre in terms of average possession (55% vs 44%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lyon
For 7.1 · Against 5.1 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 0.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Auxerre
For 4.9 · Against 5.2 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.3 · Against 10.8 · Total 26.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.2
9.5
4.6
4.1
5.2
25.1
25.3
25.0
vs Stronger (2)
14.0
10.0
18.0
7.5
9.0
6.0
18.0
18.0
18.0
vs Similar (24)
9.3
10.6
8.1
4.6
3.9
5.3
26.1
26.6
25.6
vs Weaker (24)
10.1
9.9
10.4
4.4
3.9
5.0
24.8
24.6
25.0
% over line
44%
50%
38%
64%
62%
67%
76%
81%
71%
% under line
56%
50%
62%
36%
38%
33%
24%
19%
29%
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.2
9.8
4.7
5.4
4.0
25.7
25.4
26.0
vs Stronger (19)
9.8
10.1
9.5
5.7
6.9
4.7
25.4
24.2
26.5
vs Similar (31)
10.1
10.2
9.9
4.0
4.5
3.5
25.9
26.1
25.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
48%
44%
52%
70%
80%
60%
74%
68%
80%
% under line
52%
56%
48%
30%
20%
40%
26%
32%
20%
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.4%
@ 1.69+0.3%
Under 9.5
44.6%
@ 2.07-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.81
Unibet
1.75
10Bet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.68
Betano
1.65
Under
Superbet
2.25
Betano
2.15
1xBet
2.10
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.01
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.4%
@ 1.76+1.4%
Under 3.5
45.6%
@ 1.99-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.83
Betano
1.82
1xBet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.68
Under
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.91
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
75.5%
Under 21.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lyon or Draw
80.9%
Avg Implied 85.0% · @ 1.11
Edge
-4.0%
60%
22%
18%
covers Lyon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Lyon or Auxerre
77.6%
Avg Implied 79.2% · @ 1.19
Edge
-1.6%
60%
22%
18%
covers Lyon + Auxerre
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
Draw or Auxerre
41.4%
Avg Implied 35.8% · @ 2.64
Edge
+5.7%
60%
22%
18%
covers Draw + Auxerre
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.81
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.77
BetVictor
2.70
Betfair
2.70
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lyon over/under 0.5
Over
88.0%
@ 1.08+2.1%
Under
12.0%
@ 6.59-2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Under
Betfair
7.50
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.50
Betano
6.30
Lyon over/under 1.5
Over
62.5%
@ 1.50+0.2%
Under
37.5%
@ 2.48-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.53
10Bet
1.53
Marathonbet
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Under
Pinnacle
2.67
Betfair
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
Bet365
2.50
BetVictor
2.50
Lyon over/under 2.5
Over
35.5%
@ 2.60-0.5%
Under
64.5%
@ 1.46+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.70
10Bet
2.65
Unibet
2.63
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.60
Under
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.50
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.49
Betfair
1.45
Lyon over/under 3.5
Over
16.5%
@ 5.21-1.4%
Under
83.5%
@ 1.13+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.35
Marathonbet
5.15
1xBet
5.15
Under
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Auxerre over/under 0.5
Over
68.4%
@ 1.60+10.1%
Under
31.6%
@ 2.23-10.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
1xBet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.32
10Bet
2.30
Pinnacle
2.29
Betfair
2.25
BetVictor
2.20
Auxerre over/under 1.5
Over
32.0%
@ 3.98+8.5%
Under
68.0%
@ 1.22-8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.25
Pinnacle
4.24
1xBet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Bet365
4.00
Under
Superbet
1.26
Betano
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Pinnacle
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Auxerre over/under 2.5
Over
11.0%
@ 11.30+2.7%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.03-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.75
1xBet
12.20
Superbet
9.80
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
Auxerre over/under 3.5
Over
3.0%
@ 28.50-0.5%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
31.00
Betano
13.50
Under
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lyon, so a minus line means Lyon give that many goals of a start and Auxerre receive them. At -1, Lyon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lyon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lyon)
Lyon -2
18.7%
@ 4.07-3.5%
Draw -2
18.0%
@ 4.29-3.1%
Auxerre +2
63.3%
@ 1.59+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
4.35
Betfair
4.20
10Bet
4.20
Unibet
4.10
Marathonbet
3.80
Draw
Superbet
4.50
Marathonbet
4.40
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
10Bet
4.20
Away
Bet365
1.67
Marathonbet
1.61
Superbet
1.57
Betfair
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Handicap -1 (Lyon)
Lyon -1
36.7%
@ 2.23-3.8%
Draw -1
21.9%
@ 3.58-3.4%
Auxerre +1
41.4%
@ 2.65+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.30
Unibet
2.23
Betfair
2.20
Marathonbet
2.18
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.55
10Bet
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Away
Marathonbet
2.81
Bet365
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Unibet
2.60
Superbet
2.52
Handicap +1 (Lyon)
Lyon +1
80.9%
@ 1.10-0.1%
Draw +1
11.5%
@ 7.29-0.8%
Auxerre -1
7.6%
@ 13.38+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Draw
Bet365
9.50
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
7.50
10Bet
6.50
Marathonbet
4.45
Away
Bet365
19.00
Betfair
15.00
Unibet
13.00
10Bet
13.00
Marathonbet
6.90
Handicap +2 (Lyon)
Lyon +2
92.4%
@ 1.01-1.4%
Draw +2
5.3%
@ 21.00+0.8%
Auxerre -2
2.3%
@ 56.00+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
21.00
Away
Betfair
61.00
Bet365
51.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.50
0.62
0.62
0.93
0.36
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.69
0.70
0.90
1.00
0.33
vs Weaker (13)
0.62
0.31
0.50
0.17
0.71
0.43
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (11)
0.45
0.45
0.20
0.60
0.67
0.33
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.63
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.2%
@ 1.30+0.8%
Under 0.5
26.8%
@ 3.40-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.0%
@ 2.42-1.8%
Under 1.5
63.0%
@ 1.53+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.50
Marathonbet
2.48
1xBet
2.48
Unibet
2.45
Pinnacle
2.45
Under
Superbet
1.57
Pinnacle
1.56
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.55
William Hil
1.55
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 5.66-1.7%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.12+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
Bet365
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.75
Under
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HT
Over
60.4%
@ 1.54-0.3%
Under
39.6%
@ 2.37+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Superbet
1.54
10Bet
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Unibet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.53
10Bet
2.38
1xBet
2.38
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.32
Lyon over/under 1.5 HT
Over
22.3%
@ 3.59-3.5%
Under
77.7%
@ 1.25+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
Betano
3.60
Superbet
3.55
10Bet
3.55
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Lyon over/under 2.5 HT
Over
5.2%
@ 9.36-4.7%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.03+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
10.00
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.40
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
Auxerre over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.8%
@ 2.79+2.5%
Under
64.2%
@ 1.40-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.04
Marathonbet
2.84
Betano
2.82
Unibet
2.80
1xBet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.45
Superbet
1.42
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.39
Pinnacle
1.38
Auxerre over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.3%
@ 10.54-1.7%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.03+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Superbet
9.70
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Auxerre over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.8%
@ 30.00-2.4%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.01+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Betano
15.00
Under
Betano
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.73
1.19
0.69
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.88
0.88
1.20
0.60
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.54
1.17
0.83
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Auxerre) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Auxerre
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.90
0.60
0.60
0.47
1.20
vs Stronger (11)
0.64
1.36
0.60
1.00
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.63
0.60
0.40
0.33
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
82.4%
@ 1.18+3.0%
Under 0.5
17.6%
@ 4.55-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
Under
1xBet
4.75
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Betano
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.0%
@ 1.88+0.1%
Under 1.5
50.0%
@ 1.88-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
Superbet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Unibet
1.85
Under
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Superbet
1.88
10Bet
1.85
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.1%
@ 3.72-3.1%
Under 2.5
77.9%
@ 1.25+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
Superbet
3.85
Bet365
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Unibet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2H
Over
67.0%
@ 1.36-1.4%
Under
33.0%
@ 2.94+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.39
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.35
Under
Betano
3.05
1xBet
3.00
Superbet
2.77
Lyon over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.9%
@ 2.69-1.6%
Under
67.1%
@ 1.42+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.82
10Bet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.65
1xBet
2.60
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.38
10Bet
1.38
Lyon over/under 2.5 2H
Over
9.3%
@ 6.30-5.4%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.09+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.80
1xBet
6.40
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Auxerre over/under 0.5 2H
Over
40.8%
@ 2.31+0.6%
Under
59.2%
@ 1.55-0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.36
1xBet
2.35
Betano
2.32
Superbet
2.22
Under
Superbet
1.59
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.54
Marathonbet
1.52
Auxerre over/under 1.5 2H
Over
11.4%
@ 7.85-0.4%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.05+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.40
Superbet
7.20
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Auxerre over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.1%
@ 19.25-2.9%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
26.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.4%
Under 7.5
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.9%
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.5%
Under 6.5
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
+0.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.8%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Unibet
1.01
-
+4.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.7%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.7%
Home +2 handicap
92.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-1.4%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
90.7%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Marathonbet
1.01
-2.7%
Under 5.5
88.7%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Unibet
1.04
-0.9%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+0.4%
Home over 0.5 goals
88.0%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
+2.1%
Over 19.5 fouls
86.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.12
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.13
Bet365
1.12
+1.7%
Over 1.5
83.6%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Superbet
1.21
Betfair
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Unibet
1.20
+5.0%
Home under 3.5 goals
83.5%
1.13
Betano
1.17
Marathonbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Superbet
1.13
+1.4%
Over 0.5 2H goals
82.4%
1.18
William Hil
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
10Bet
1.17
+3.0%
Home or Draw
80.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.15
1xBet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
-4.0%
Home +1 handicap
80.9%
1.10
10Bet
1.12
Marathonbet
1.12
Bet365
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.07
-0.1%
Under 5.5 cards
80.3%
1.27
Unibet
1.34
Superbet
1.25
Betano
1.23
-
-
+7.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.9%
1.25
Betano
1.30
Superbet
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
+3.1%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
77.7%
1.25
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
+3.5%
Home or Away
77.6%
1.19
1xBet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
Superbet
1.22
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.20
-1.6%
Under 4.5
76.8%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-3.3%
Over 21.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
1.30
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.32
Unibet
1.29
Superbet
1.25
-
+3.6%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.2%
1.30
Betano
1.34
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.31
William Hil
1.30
+0.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Lyon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Loïs Openda40%
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Ernest Nuamah20%
Tyler Morton17%
Malick Fofana17%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Noah Nartey33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Loïs Openda20%
Abner Vinícius20%
Clinton Mata0%
Corentin Tolisso0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Corentin Tolisso33%
Pavel Šulc33%
Zachary Athekame33%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles25%
Clinton Mata0%
Loïs Openda0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Tyler Morton0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Malick Fofana0%
Noah Nartey0%
Kaïl Boudache0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Loïs Openda40%
Corentin Tolisso33%
Malick Fofana33%
Kaïl Boudache20%
Tyler Morton17%
Clinton Mata0%
Ainsley Maitland-Niles0%
Abner Vinícius0%
Moussa Niakhaté0%
Dominik Greif0%
Pavel Šulc0%
Tanner Tessmann0%
Mads Bidstrup0%
Ruben Kluivert0%
Ernest Nuamah0%
Noah Nartey0%
Zachary Athekame0%
Mohamed Ouédraogo0%
Auxerre · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Lassine Sinayoko31%
Bryan Okoh15%
Danny Namaso10%
Francisco Sierralta9%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Kévin Danois9%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Assane Dioussé6%
Marvin Senaya4%
Josué Casimir3%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Clement Akpa0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Danny Namaso30%
Gideon Mensah26%
Lassine Sinayoko25%
Elisha Owusu24%
Rudy Matondo24%
Marvin Senaya23%
Assane Dioussé19%
Francisco Sierralta18%
Josué Casimir16%
Bryan Okoh15%
Sinaly Diomandé12%
Kévin Danois12%
Clement Akpa12%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Lamine Sy8%
Lasso Coulibaly6%
Fredrik Oppegård4%
Donovan Léon3%
Romain Faivre0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sékou Mara0%
Théo De Percin0%
Ibrahim Osman0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Ibrahim Osman13%
Lassine Sinayoko12%
Danny Namaso10%
Romain Faivre10%
Sinaly Diomandé8%
Sékou Mara7%
Naouirou Ahamada7%
Gideon Mensah6%
Kévin Danois3%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Oussama El Azzouzi0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Lassine Sinayoko41%
Danny Namaso13%
Oussama El Azzouzi9%
Sékou Mara7%
Ibrahim Osman7%
Gideon Mensah0%
Donovan Léon0%
Elisha Owusu0%
Assane Dioussé0%
Francisco Sierralta0%
Romain Faivre0%
Bryan Okoh0%
Naouirou Ahamada0%
Sinaly Diomandé0%
Josué Casimir0%
Clement Akpa0%
Marvin Senaya0%
Théo De Percin0%
Lamine Sy0%
Fredrik Oppegård0%
Lasso Coulibaly0%
Kévin Danois0%
Ryan Rodin0%
Telli Siwe0%
Rudy Matondo0%
Tidiane Devernois0%
Mamoudou Cissokho0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Lyon's squad is €210m more valuable than Auxerre's (€293m vs €84m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Lyon's attack is €99m more valuable than Auxerre's (€122m vs €23m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Lyon's midfield is €55m more valuable than Auxerre's (€82m vs €28m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Lyon's defence is €56m more valuable than Auxerre's (€89m vs €33m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Angers
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice