The match between Lyon and Lens is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win but the odds for a draw and an away victory are almost equal. The predicted probability for a Lyon victory is 37%, a draw 27%, and a Lens win 36%. The model’s pick is a home win, and the average number of goals expected is 2.9, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 24%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.7% chance. Lyon, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 2.2 goals scored and only 0.6 conceded, while Lens, away, scores 2.12 and concedes 0.88 against comparable teams. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Under 5.5 (92.5%), Under 4.5 (83%), Home +2 handicap (82.8%), and Away under 2.5 goals (82.4%). Each selection is listed with its exact probability, and no other figures are repeated.
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, Lyon, fell short in a 2-2 draw that left the model’s call wrong. The win that had just ended Lyon’s recent form streak was not enough to secure the predicted home victory. The model had given Lyon a 37% chance of winning, but the match finished as a draw, confirming the prediction was incorrect. The model’s selections all hit: Under 7.5 (99%), Under 6.5 (97.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (94.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (93.8%), Under 5.5 (92.5%), Under 4.5 (83.0%), Home +2 handicap (82.8%) and Away under 2.5 goals (82.4%). Each of these odds was met, underscoring the model’s strength in predicting low-scoring outcomes even when the favourite faltered.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Lyon win✗ Miss
37.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lens win✗ Miss
35.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Lyon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.90
0.97
2.07
0.71
1.75
1.19
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
3.00
2.00
3.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
2.21
1.36
2.20
0.60
2.22
1.78
vs Weaker (15)
1.60
0.47
2.00
0.50
1.14
0.43
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.07
0.87
2.14
0.64
2.00
1.06
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
2.21
0.79
2.27
0.73
2.12
0.88
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
0.90
1.67
0.33
2.14
1.14
Clean sheet %
37% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.9%
Under 1.5
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.7%
Under 2.5
44.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
33.3%
Under 3.5
66.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
59.9%
No
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.3%
1-0
6.9%
0-1
6.7%
0-0
6.6%
2-2 ✓
6.1%
2-0
5.9%
Lyon goals ↓
Lens goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
6.7%
5.6%
2.7%
1.0%
1
6.9%
13%
8.3%
4.0%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.5%
6.1%
2.9%
1.1%
3
2.9%
4.2%
3.0%
1.4%
0.5%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.1%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Lyon goals (down), columns = Lens goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.67
Cannes
2.57
Angers
2.50
Estac Troyes
2.40
Hauts Lyonnais
2.33
Thionville Lusitanos
2.33
Clermont Foot
2.33
Stade Brestois 29
2.25
Bastia
2.25
Le Puy Foot
2.25
Lorient
2.25
Guingamp
2.17
Lyon
2.00
Bordeaux
2.00
Saint-Malo
2.00
Feignies-Aulnoye
2.00
ASS Still Mutzig
2.00
Drancy
2.00
PAU
2.00
Caen
2.00
Sochaux
2.00
Orleans
2.00
Concarneau
2.00
Boulogne
2.00
Dunkerque
2.00
Union Saint-Jean
2.00
Monaco
2.00
Marseille
2.00
Le Mans
2.00
RED Star FC 93
2.00
Annecy
2.00
Metz
2.00
Stade Briochin
1.83
Quevilly
1.75
SA Mérignac
1.67
Lille
1.67
Istres
1.50
Beauvais
1.50
Aubervilliers
1.50
Saint-Colomban Locminé
1.50
Les Herbiers
1.50
Nancy
1.50
Angoulême
1.50
Rennes
1.50
Carnoux
1.50
Nantes
1.50
Reims
1.50
Marmande
1.33
Amiens
1.33
Grenoble
1.33
Strasbourg
1.33
Nice
1.33
Toulouse
1.33
Colomiers
1.00
Romorantin
1.00
Stade Béthunois
1.00
Vitré
1.00
Biesheim
1.00
Fleury 91
1.00
Avranches
1.00
Lens
1.00
Paris FC
1.00
Porto Portugais Amiens
1.00
Bourg-en-bresse 01
0.97
SS Allinges
0.97
Mulhouse
0.97
Steenvoorde
0.97
Mazeres
0.97
Dieppe
0.97
Montreuil
0.97
Saint-Pauloise
0.97
Ancienne Château-Gontier
0.97
Montceau
0.97
St Maur Lusitanos
0.97
Lyon Duchere
0.97
Olympique Marcquois
0.97
UF Touraine
0.97
Bayeux
0.97
Abbeville
0.97
Seignosse Capbreton
0.97
Chalon
0.97
Racing Besançon
0.97
Villeneuve-la-Garenne
0.97
Plouvorn
0.97
Torcy
0.97
Granville
0.97
Trélissac
0.97
Loon-Plage
0.97
Wittenheim
0.97
Cambrai
0.97
Auby
0.97
Orvault SF
0.97
Les Bleuets
0.97
France Aizenay
0.97
Quetigny
0.97
Le Cellier Mauves
0.97
Saint-Renan
0.97
Ecotay Moingt
0.97
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
0.97
SA Beaumont
0.97
Yvetot
0.97
Les Sables-d'Olonne
0.97
Gosier
0.97
Sarreguemines
0.97
Pontivy GSI
0.97
Stade Plabennec
0.97
Reims Sainte-Anne
0.97
Bogny
0.97
Furiani-Agliani
0.97
Rhone-Vallee
0.97
US Chateau-Malo
0.97
Andrézieux
0.97
Olympique de Villefontaine
0.97
Oissel
0.97
ASPTT Dijon
0.97
Ivry
0.97
Pontarlier
0.97
Lavaur
0.97
APM Metz
0.97
Grasse
0.97
Forbach
0.97
Feurs
0.97
Croix Football IC
0.97
GSA Tomblaine
0.97
Seyssinet-Pariset
0.97
Chauvigny
0.97
Blois
0.97
Périgny
0.97
Boé Bon Encontre
0.97
Lapalisse
0.97
L'Etrat La Tour
0.97
Chamalières
0.97
Aubagne
0.97
Chambly Thelle FC
0.97
Atlas Paillade
0.97
FC 2 Rives 82
0.97
Camon
0.97
Racing Colombes 92
0.97
Le Geldar
0.97
Moulien
0.97
Espoir Ste Luce
0.97
Magenta
0.97
Beaucouzé
0.97
Montreal-la-Cluse
0.97
Gobelins
0.97
Villars-l'Isle
0.97
Challans
0.97
Bandrele
0.97
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
0.97
Dominicaine
0.97
Avion
0.97
Caen PTT
0.97
Strasbourg Koenigshoffen
0.97
Bondues
0.97
Premontre
0.97
Pierrelatte
0.97
Avenir Sportif de Gouzon
0.97
Stade Quimperlois
0.97
Pirae
0.97
OS Aire-Sur-La-Lys
0.97
Plédran
0.97
Blagnac
0.97
Savigneux Montbrison
0.97
Saint-Meziery
0.97
Nord Lozère
0.97
MJEP Cormontreuil
0.97
Montmorillon
0.97
Eveil
0.97
Longuenesse
0.97
Mauguio Carnon
0.97
Saint-Brice Courcelles
0.97
Thonon Évian
0.97
ES Cappelle
0.97
Etoile Bobigny
0.97
Poitiers
0.97
Pen Hir
0.97
Saint-Amand
0.97
Épernay
0.97
Auch
0.97
Le Poinconnet
0.97
Selongey
0.97
Laval
0.75
Chateauroux
0.64
Agde
0.50
Raon l'Etape
0.50
Dinan Léhon
0.50
Saint-Cyr Collonges
0.00
Sarre Union
0.00
Canet Roussillon
0.00
Saint Etienne
0.00
Vendée Fontenay
0.00
Bayonne
0.00
Rodez
0.00
OCPAM
0.00
Freyming
0.00
Chantilly
0.00
Sablé
0.00
Le Havre
0.00
Auxerre
0.00
Etoile Matoury
0.00
Biars-Bretenoux
0.00
Montpellier
0.00
Lyon is 1.00 points better than Lens in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
RED Star FC 93
4.50
Caen
3.67
Paris Saint Germain
3.50
Cannes
3.00
Le Mans
2.80
Bastia
2.75
Le Puy Foot
2.75
Lorient
2.75
Boulogne
2.67
Guingamp
2.67
Monaco
2.50
Marseille
2.50
Nantes
2.50
Feignies-Aulnoye
2.33
Thionville Lusitanos
2.33
SA Mérignac
2.33
Grenoble
2.33
Union Saint-Jean
2.33
Annecy
2.25
Lyon
2.00
Colomiers
2.00
Istres
2.00
Aubervilliers
2.00
Saint-Colomban Locminé
2.00
ASS Still Mutzig
2.00
PAU
2.00
Orleans
2.00
Nancy
2.00
Concarneau
2.00
Avranches
2.00
Sablé
2.00
Strasbourg
2.00
Rennes
2.00
Angers
2.00
Estac Troyes
1.80
Stade Brestois 29
1.75
Sochaux
1.75
Dunkerque
1.71
Bordeaux
1.67
Marmande
1.67
Drancy
1.67
Clermont Foot
1.67
Amiens
1.67
Beauvais
1.50
Quevilly
1.50
Angoulême
1.50
Hauts Lyonnais
1.33
Metz
1.33
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1.20
SS Allinges
1.20
Mulhouse
1.20
Steenvoorde
1.20
Mazeres
1.20
Dieppe
1.20
Montreuil
1.20
Saint-Pauloise
1.20
Ancienne Château-Gontier
1.20
Montceau
1.20
St Maur Lusitanos
1.20
Lyon Duchere
1.20
Olympique Marcquois
1.20
UF Touraine
1.20
Bayeux
1.20
Abbeville
1.20
Seignosse Capbreton
1.20
Chalon
1.20
Racing Besançon
1.20
Villeneuve-la-Garenne
1.20
Plouvorn
1.20
Torcy
1.20
Granville
1.20
Trélissac
1.20
Loon-Plage
1.20
Wittenheim
1.20
Cambrai
1.20
Auby
1.20
Orvault SF
1.20
Les Bleuets
1.20
France Aizenay
1.20
Quetigny
1.20
Le Cellier Mauves
1.20
Saint-Renan
1.20
Ecotay Moingt
1.20
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
1.20
SA Beaumont
1.20
Yvetot
1.20
Les Sables-d'Olonne
1.20
Gosier
1.20
Sarreguemines
1.20
Pontivy GSI
1.20
Stade Plabennec
1.20
Reims Sainte-Anne
1.20
Bogny
1.20
Furiani-Agliani
1.20
Rhone-Vallee
1.20
US Chateau-Malo
1.20
Andrézieux
1.20
Olympique de Villefontaine
1.20
Oissel
1.20
ASPTT Dijon
1.20
Ivry
1.20
Pontarlier
1.20
Lavaur
1.20
APM Metz
1.20
Grasse
1.20
Forbach
1.20
Feurs
1.20
Croix Football IC
1.20
GSA Tomblaine
1.20
Seyssinet-Pariset
1.20
Chauvigny
1.20
Blois
1.20
Périgny
1.20
Boé Bon Encontre
1.20
Lapalisse
1.20
L'Etrat La Tour
1.20
Chamalières
1.20
Aubagne
1.20
Chambly Thelle FC
1.20
Atlas Paillade
1.20
FC 2 Rives 82
1.20
Camon
1.20
Racing Colombes 92
1.20
Le Geldar
1.20
Moulien
1.20
Espoir Ste Luce
1.20
Magenta
1.20
Beaucouzé
1.20
Montreal-la-Cluse
1.20
Gobelins
1.20
Villars-l'Isle
1.20
Challans
1.20
Bandrele
1.20
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1.20
Dominicaine
1.20
Avion
1.20
Caen PTT
1.20
Strasbourg Koenigshoffen
1.20
Bondues
1.20
Premontre
1.20
Pierrelatte
1.20
Avenir Sportif de Gouzon
1.20
Stade Quimperlois
1.20
Pirae
1.20
OS Aire-Sur-La-Lys
1.20
Plédran
1.20
Blagnac
1.20
Savigneux Montbrison
1.20
Saint-Meziery
1.20
Nord Lozère
1.20
MJEP Cormontreuil
1.20
Montmorillon
1.20
Eveil
1.20
Longuenesse
1.20
Mauguio Carnon
1.20
Saint-Brice Courcelles
1.20
Thonon Évian
1.20
ES Cappelle
1.20
Etoile Bobigny
1.20
Poitiers
1.20
Pen Hir
1.20
Saint-Amand
1.20
Épernay
1.20
Auch
1.20
Le Poinconnet
1.20
Selongey
1.20
Stade Briochin
1.17
Reims
1.17
Agde
1.00
Saint-Cyr Collonges
1.00
Canet Roussillon
1.00
Romorantin
1.00
Saint-Malo
1.00
Biesheim
1.00
Vendée Fontenay
1.00
Les Herbiers
1.00
Bayonne
1.00
Rodez
1.00
OCPAM
1.00
Dinan Léhon
1.00
Fleury 91
1.00
Lens
1.00
Paris FC
1.00
Nice
1.00
Lille
1.00
Etoile Matoury
1.00
Porto Portugais Amiens
1.00
Chateauroux
0.80
Laval
0.75
Toulouse
0.67
Raon l'Etape
0.50
Carnoux
0.50
Sarre Union
0.00
Stade Béthunois
0.00
Saint Etienne
0.00
Vitré
0.00
Freyming
0.00
Chantilly
0.00
Le Havre
0.00
Auxerre
0.00
Biars-Bretenoux
0.00
Montpellier
0.00
Lyon is 1.00 goals better than Lens in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stade Béthunois
0.00
Vitré
0.00
Bastia
0.25
Hauts Lyonnais
0.33
SA Mérignac
0.33
Clermont Foot
0.33
Saint-Malo
0.50
Orleans
0.50
Le Puy Foot
0.50
Lorient
0.50
Marseille
0.50
Carnoux
0.50
Estac Troyes
0.60
Feignies-Aulnoye
0.67
Thionville Lusitanos
0.67
Caen
0.67
Lille
0.67
Sochaux
0.75
Annecy
0.75
Le Mans
0.80
Paris Saint Germain
0.83
Romorantin
1.00
Aubervilliers
1.00
Raon l'Etape
1.00
Biesheim
1.00
PAU
1.00
Amiens
1.00
Quevilly
1.00
Concarneau
1.00
Fleury 91
1.00
Chantilly
1.00
Lens
1.00
Rennes
1.00
Paris FC
1.00
Nice
1.00
Angers
1.00
Monaco
1.00
Toulouse
1.00
Le Havre
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Biars-Bretenoux
1.00
Laval
1.00
Nantes
1.00
Metz
1.00
Porto Portugais Amiens
1.00
Dunkerque
1.14
Guingamp
1.17
Reims
1.17
Stade Brestois 29
1.25
Bordeaux
1.33
ASS Still Mutzig
1.33
Grenoble
1.33
Cannes
1.43
Lyon
1.50
Les Herbiers
1.50
Angoulême
1.50
Stade Briochin
1.50
RED Star FC 93
1.50
Drancy
1.67
Union Saint-Jean
1.67
Strasbourg
1.67
Bourg-en-bresse 01
1.89
SS Allinges
1.89
Mulhouse
1.89
Steenvoorde
1.89
Mazeres
1.89
Dieppe
1.89
Montreuil
1.89
Saint-Pauloise
1.89
Ancienne Château-Gontier
1.89
Montceau
1.89
St Maur Lusitanos
1.89
Lyon Duchere
1.89
Olympique Marcquois
1.89
UF Touraine
1.89
Bayeux
1.89
Abbeville
1.89
Seignosse Capbreton
1.89
Chalon
1.89
Racing Besançon
1.89
Villeneuve-la-Garenne
1.89
Plouvorn
1.89
Torcy
1.89
Granville
1.89
Trélissac
1.89
Loon-Plage
1.89
Wittenheim
1.89
Cambrai
1.89
Auby
1.89
Orvault SF
1.89
Les Bleuets
1.89
France Aizenay
1.89
Quetigny
1.89
Le Cellier Mauves
1.89
Saint-Renan
1.89
Ecotay Moingt
1.89
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
1.89
SA Beaumont
1.89
Yvetot
1.89
Les Sables-d'Olonne
1.89
Gosier
1.89
Sarreguemines
1.89
Pontivy GSI
1.89
Stade Plabennec
1.89
Reims Sainte-Anne
1.89
Bogny
1.89
Furiani-Agliani
1.89
Rhone-Vallee
1.89
US Chateau-Malo
1.89
Andrézieux
1.89
Olympique de Villefontaine
1.89
Oissel
1.89
ASPTT Dijon
1.89
Ivry
1.89
Pontarlier
1.89
Lavaur
1.89
APM Metz
1.89
Grasse
1.89
Forbach
1.89
Feurs
1.89
Croix Football IC
1.89
GSA Tomblaine
1.89
Seyssinet-Pariset
1.89
Chauvigny
1.89
Blois
1.89
Périgny
1.89
Boé Bon Encontre
1.89
Lapalisse
1.89
L'Etrat La Tour
1.89
Chamalières
1.89
Aubagne
1.89
Chambly Thelle FC
1.89
Atlas Paillade
1.89
FC 2 Rives 82
1.89
Camon
1.89
Racing Colombes 92
1.89
Le Geldar
1.89
Moulien
1.89
Espoir Ste Luce
1.89
Magenta
1.89
Beaucouzé
1.89
Montreal-la-Cluse
1.89
Gobelins
1.89
Villars-l'Isle
1.89
Challans
1.89
Bandrele
1.89
Gazelec FC Ajaccio
1.89
Dominicaine
1.89
Avion
1.89
Caen PTT
1.89
Strasbourg Koenigshoffen
1.89
Bondues
1.89
Premontre
1.89
Pierrelatte
1.89
Avenir Sportif de Gouzon
1.89
Stade Quimperlois
1.89
Pirae
1.89
OS Aire-Sur-La-Lys
1.89
Plédran
1.89
Blagnac
1.89
Savigneux Montbrison
1.89
Saint-Meziery
1.89
Nord Lozère
1.89
MJEP Cormontreuil
1.89
Montmorillon
1.89
Eveil
1.89
Longuenesse
1.89
Mauguio Carnon
1.89
Saint-Brice Courcelles
1.89
Thonon Évian
1.89
ES Cappelle
1.89
Etoile Bobigny
1.89
Poitiers
1.89
Pen Hir
1.89
Saint-Amand
1.89
Épernay
1.89
Auch
1.89
Le Poinconnet
1.89
Selongey
1.89
Saint-Cyr Collonges
2.00
Sarre Union
2.00
Colomiers
2.00
Istres
2.00
Beauvais
2.00
Vendée Fontenay
2.00
Nancy
2.00
Boulogne
2.00
Rodez
2.00
OCPAM
2.00
Avranches
2.00
Dinan Léhon
2.50
Etoile Matoury
2.50
Chateauroux
2.85
Agde
3.00
Marmande
3.00
Canet Roussillon
3.00
Saint-Colomban Locminé
3.00
Bayonne
3.00
Saint Etienne
4.00
Freyming
4.00
Sablé
4.00
Montpellier
4.00
Lyon is 0.50 goals worse than Lens in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
76%
Cannes
61%
Reims
32%
Dunkerque
24%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Lyon
For 4.0 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lens
For 5.2 · Against 3.3 · Total 8.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 14.1 · Total 28.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lyon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.1
10.0
4.6
3.8
5.3
25.5
24.6
26.4
vs Stronger (1)
10.0
10.0
-
9.0
9.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
vs Similar (25)
9.1
8.5
9.5
5.0
4.1
5.7
27.2
25.9
28.1
vs Weaker (24)
10.0
9.4
10.8
3.9
3.3
4.7
24.1
24.2
24.0
% over line
40%
40%
40%
70%
64%
76%
78%
76%
80%
% under line
60%
60%
60%
30%
36%
24%
22%
24%
20%
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.1
8.8
4.5
4.4
4.6
26.0
25.9
26.0
vs Stronger (3)
7.0
7.0
7.0
2.3
2.0
3.0
19.0
20.0
18.0
vs Similar (28)
9.7
10.9
8.3
4.5
4.6
4.5
25.7
25.2
26.2
vs Weaker (19)
9.3
8.9
9.5
4.8
4.8
4.9
27.2
28.0
26.5
% over line
43%
42%
44%
70%
68%
72%
76%
75%
76%
% under line
57%
58%
56%
30%
32%
28%
24%
25%
24%
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Les Sables-d'Olonne
22.0
Saint-Cyr Collonges
19.0
Blois
17.0
Les Herbiers
14.0
Bayeux
13.0
Feignies-Aulnoye
12.0
SA Mérignac
12.0
Freyming
11.0
Cannes
11.0
Chantilly
10.5
Amiens
10.4
Nice
10.4
Rodez
10.3
Laval
10.2
Grenoble
10.1
Raon l'Etape
10.0
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
10.0
Istres
10.0
Bourg-en-bresse 01
10.0
Périgny
10.0
Pontivy GSI
10.0
PAU
9.9
Montpellier
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.9
Nancy
9.9
Bordeaux
9.8
Auxerre
9.8
Caen
9.7
Rennes
9.6
Lille
9.5
Lyon
9.5
Montreuil
9.5
Hauts Lyonnais
9.5
Saint Etienne
9.5
Le Havre
9.4
Nantes
9.4
Lens
9.4
Clermont Foot
9.3
Paris FC
9.2
Paris Saint Germain
9.2
Orleans
9.2
Reims
9.2
Monaco
9.2
Toulouse
9.1
Chateauroux
9.1
Sochaux
9.1
Metz
9.1
Guingamp
9.0
Lyon Duchere
9.0
Olympique Marcquois
9.0
Avranches
9.0
Dieppe
9.0
Le Mans
9.0
Quevilly
8.9
Marseille
8.9
Bastia
8.9
RED Star FC 93
8.8
Dunkerque
8.6
Annecy
8.6
Strasbourg
8.6
Lorient
8.5
Boulogne
8.5
Angers
8.5
Estac Troyes
8.4
Concarneau
8.2
St Maur Lusitanos
8.0
Biesheim
8.0
Le Puy Foot
8.0
Vendée Fontenay
8.0
Chauvigny
7.0
Gosier
7.0
Stade Béthunois
7.0
Canet Roussillon
5.0
Croix Football IC
4.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
8.0
Montreuil
6.0
Lyon Duchere
6.0
Hauts Lyonnais
6.0
Bastia
5.8
Avranches
5.5
Blois
5.0
Chauvigny
5.0
Le Puy Foot
5.0
Stade Béthunois
5.0
Boulogne
4.8
Lyon
4.8
Lens
4.7
PAU
4.7
Auxerre
4.6
Nantes
4.5
Guingamp
4.5
Rennes
4.5
Toulouse
4.5
Monaco
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Annecy
4.4
Paris FC
4.4
Bordeaux
4.4
Sochaux
4.3
Marseille
4.3
Strasbourg
4.3
Montpellier
4.3
Lille
4.3
Nice
4.2
Dunkerque
4.2
Amiens
4.2
Rodez
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Saint Etienne
4.1
Laval
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.1
Clermont Foot
4.0
Nancy
4.0
Les Herbiers
4.0
Pontivy GSI
4.0
Le Havre
4.0
Reims
3.9
Chateauroux
3.9
Caen
3.8
Metz
3.8
Stade Brestois 29
3.8
Orleans
3.7
RED Star FC 93
3.7
Grenoble
3.7
Concarneau
3.7
Angers
3.5
Istres
3.5
Quevilly
3.5
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
Canet Roussillon
3.0
Raon l'Etape
3.0
St Maur Lusitanos
3.0
Biesheim
3.0
Gosier
3.0
Cannes
3.0
Feignies-Aulnoye
3.0
Dieppe
3.0
Périgny
3.0
Bayeux
3.0
SA Mérignac
3.0
Saint-Cyr Collonges
2.0
Les Sables-d'Olonne
2.0
Chantilly
2.0
Olympique Marcquois
1.0
Croix Football IC
1.0
Vendée Fontenay
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Canet Roussillon
36.0
Montreuil
35.5
Chauvigny
35.0
Chateauroux
30.2
Blois
30.0
Avranches
30.0
Pontivy GSI
29.0
Bastia
28.8
Nancy
28.5
Annecy
28.3
Boulogne
28.3
Amiens
28.1
Le Mans
28.1
Guingamp
28.0
Lyon Duchere
28.0
Bassin d'Arcachon Sud
28.0
Périgny
28.0
Stade Béthunois
28.0
Laval
27.9
Montpellier
27.8
Quevilly
27.5
Bordeaux
27.1
Caen
27.0
Istres
27.0
Concarneau
26.9
Orleans
26.8
Estac Troyes
26.6
Dunkerque
26.3
Sochaux
26.2
Grenoble
26.2
Clermont Foot
26.0
Hauts Lyonnais
26.0
Bayeux
26.0
Lens
26.0
Saint Etienne
25.9
Toulouse
25.9
RED Star FC 93
25.8
Lyon
25.5
Nantes
25.4
Le Havre
25.4
Stade Brestois 29
25.2
PAU
25.1
Rodez
25.0
Olympique Marcquois
25.0
Freyming
25.0
Feignies-Aulnoye
25.0
Auxerre
25.0
Rennes
24.6
Monaco
24.6
Nice
24.5
Lille
24.3
Paris FC
24.1
Lorient
24.0
Cannes
24.0
Reims
23.6
Metz
23.4
Strasbourg
23.3
Marseille
23.3
SA Mérignac
23.0
Angers
22.8
Biesheim
22.0
Le Puy Foot
22.0
Dieppe
22.0
Chantilly
22.0
Bourg-en-bresse 01
21.0
St Maur Lusitanos
20.0
Paris Saint Germain
19.3
Raon l'Etape
19.0
Les Herbiers
19.0
Gosier
18.0
Croix Football IC
13.0
Les Sables-d'Olonne
11.0
Saint-Cyr Collonges
10.0
Vendée Fontenay
8.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
46.5%
Under 9.5
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
61.8%
Under 3.5
38.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
68.9%
Under 21.5
31.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Lyon or Draw✓ Hit
64.3%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
36%
covers Lyon + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Lyon or Lens✗ Miss
73.0%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
36%
covers Lyon + Lens
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Lens✓ Hit
62.7%
Avg Implied -
37%
27%
36%
covers Draw + Lens
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Lyon over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.1%
Under
22.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.3%
Under
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.4%
Under
81.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.2%
Under
93.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
76.3%
Under
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
42.1%
Under
57.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
17.6%
Under
82.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.8%
Under
94.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Lyon, so a minus line means Lyon give that many goals of a start and Lens receive them. At -1, Lyon must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Lyon win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Lyon)Actual: Lens
Lyon -2
7.0%
Draw -2
11.4%
Lens +2
81.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Lyon)Actual: Lens
Lyon -1
18.3%
Draw -1
18.9%
Lens +1
62.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Lyon)Actual: Lyon
Lyon +1
64.3%
Draw +1
18.5%
Lens -1
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Lyon)Actual: Lyon
Lyon +2
82.8%
Draw +2
10.8%
Lens -2
6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Lyon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.47
0.86
0.36
1.00
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.07
0.64
1.00
0.40
1.11
0.78
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.20
0.75
0.12
0.86
0.29
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.43
0.86
0.36
0.81
0.50
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.79
0.47
0.82
0.45
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.30
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
60% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Lyon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.50
1.21
0.36
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (14)
1.14
0.71
1.20
0.20
1.11
1.00
vs Weaker (15)
0.80
0.27
1.25
0.38
0.29
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Lens) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lens
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.43
1.29
0.29
1.19
0.56
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
1.42
0.32
1.45
0.27
1.38
0.38
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.60
0.67
0.33
1.14
0.71
Clean sheet %
67% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Lyon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Lyon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lyon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lens over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
81.7%
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-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.5%
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-
-
-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
79.9%
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-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Over 1.5
79.9%
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-
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-
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✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.1%
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-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
76.3%
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-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
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-
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✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
74.1%
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-
-
-
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✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.0%
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-
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✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
SE (30)
€93m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
NAN (25)
€82m
ANG (23)
€73m
REI (30)
€72m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
MET (26)
€43m
ET (23)
€36m
MON (24)
€29m
LM (26)
€24m
ROD (23)
€15m
CF (21)
€15m
PAU (20)
€14m
NAN (26)
€13m
GRE (27)
€12m
GUI (20)
€11m
DUN (21)
€11m
ANN (21)
€10m
BOU (23)
€8m
BAS (19)
€7m
SOC (20)
€7m
AMI (14)
€4m
CAE (18)
€4m
ORL (16)
€4m
CON (18)
€3m
CHA (5)
€1m
Lyon's squad is €106m more valuable than Lens's (€293m vs €187m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
SE (10)
€54m
LEN (8)
€52m
REI (12)
€38m
NAN (8)
€31m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
MET (11)
€17m
MON (9)
€11m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
PAU (6)
€6m
GRE (12)
€5m
NAN (9)
€5m
DUN (7)
€4m
LM (6)
€4m
BAS (9)
€4m
ROD (7)
€4m
GUI (4)
€3m
ANN (7)
€3m
SOC (8)
€3m
BOU (6)
€2m
CF (5)
€2m
CAE (8)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
CON (7)
€1m
AMI (4)
€0m
CHA (1)
€0m
Lyon's attack is €70m more valuable than Lens's (€122m vs €52m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
MET (5)
€18m
NAN (7)
€16m
REI (6)
€13m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
SE (7)
€11m
MON (5)
€6m
LM (8)
€5m
GUI (8)
€4m
ROD (6)
€4m
ANN (6)
€3m
GRE (5)
€3m
CF (4)
€3m
BOU (6)
€3m
NAN (6)
€2m
PAU (4)
€2m
DUN (5)
€1m
BAS (3)
€1m
SOC (3)
€1m
CON (5)
€1m
CAE (4)
€1m
ORL (4)
€1m
AMI (2)
€0m
CHA (2)
€0m
Lyon's midfield is €59m more valuable than Lens's (€82m vs €24m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
NAN (10)
€34m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
SE (13)
€28m
LH (10)
€23m
REI (12)
€21m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
MON (10)
€12m
CF (12)
€10m
MET (10)
€8m
ROD (10)
€7m
NAN (11)
€6m
PAU (10)
€6m
DUN (9)
€5m
ANN (8)
€4m
GRE (10)
€4m
AMI (8)
€4m
SOC (9)
€3m
BOU (11)
€3m
GUI (8)
€3m
BAS (7)
€2m
CAE (6)
€2m
ORL (6)
€2m
CON (6)
€1m
CHA (2)
€0m
Lyon's defence is €22m less valuable than Lens's (€89m vs €112m).
France: Ligue 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →