PythiaFootballBETA
Lyon, currently on a downturn after three straight defeats, hosts Lens, who are coming off a win against the same opponent. This match has the makings of a high-scoring affair, with Lyon averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded at home against similar opponents, while Lens averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded away from home against similar opponents. The model predicts a home win, with a 47% chance of Lyon taking the three points. The expected total number of goals is 3.3, and the most likely total number of goals is 3. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a 11% probability.
Lyon's home form has been inconsistent, but they have shown resilience in recent matches. Lens, on the other hand, has shown promise in their away form, particularly in their last win against Lyon. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, with an 84.9% probability, while the Over 21.5 fouls has a 71.9% probability of missing. The model's selection, the Home win, has a 47% chance of occurring, with a 29% chance of an away win and a 25% chance of a draw.
The win by Lens over Lyon was a major upset, as the visitors extended their run of impressive form away from home. The final score was 0-4 in favour of Lens, resulting in an away win. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 47%. Meanwhile, the model's suggestion of Over 1.5 goals hit, with a probability of 84.9%. The model's other selections, including a correct call of the most likely total goals to be exactly 3, were not settled by the match's actual outcome.
Lyon| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.83 | 1.13 | 2.00 | 1.27 | 1.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 2.60 | 1.50 | 2.17 | 1.67 | 3.25 | 1.25 |
| vs Weaker (18) | 1.39 | 0.83 | 1.88 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
Lens| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.07 | 2.00 | 0.81 | 1.79 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | - | - |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.80 | 1.13 | 1.88 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 1.29 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 2.14 | 0.93 | 2.43 | 0.43 | 1.86 | 1.43 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Lens goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 6.0% | 11% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 1.2% |
| 2 | 6.5% | 9.2% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
LyonLensLyon| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.8 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 25.6 | 25.1 | 26.1 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 14.0 | 10.0 | 18.0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.4 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 26.3 | 23.2 | 29.8 |
| vs Weaker (29) | 9.7 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 25.6 | 26.9 | 24.4 |
| % over line | 42% | 44% | 40% | 72% | 64% | 80% | 76% | 76% | 76% |
| % under line | 58% | 56% | 60% | 28% | 36% | 20% | 24% | 24% | 24% |
Lens| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 24.8 | 24.6 | 24.9 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 8.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 12.0 | 18.0 |
| vs Similar (24) | 9.6 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 24.9 | 25.4 | 24.4 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 9.8 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 25.4 | 24.9 | 25.9 |
| % over line | 48% | 52% | 44% | 66% | 56% | 76% | 66% | 68% | 64% |
| % under line | 52% | 48% | 56% | 34% | 44% | 24% | 34% | 32% | 36% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 15/09/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/03/24 | H | 0-3 | |
| 02/12/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 12/02/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/10/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 19/02/22 | A | 1-1 |
Lyon| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 05/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 19/03/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
Lens| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 13/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 08/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 24/04/26 | A | 3-3 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 08/03/26 | H | 3-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Paris FC | 70 | 123 | 51% | 1.8 | 124 | 82 | +42 | 2.9 | 76% | 60% | 31% | 9.6 | 49% | 3.2 | 33% | 19.8 | 37% | 159 | 45 | 50 | 63 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 2 |  Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 76 | 71% | 2.2 | 74 | 29 | +45 | 3.0 | 76% | 62% | 32% | 9.5 | 41% | 2.9 | 26% | 18.6 | 26% | 1377 | 540 | 430 | 407 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 69% |
| 3 | Lens | 36 | 70 | 61% | 1.9 | 66 | 39 | +27 | 2.9 | 83% | 61% | 28% | 10.2 | 50% | 4.4 | 66% | 24.1 | 56% | 260 | 52 | 76 | 132 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 51% |
| 4 | Lyon | 36 | 63 | 53% | 1.8 | 57 | 44 | +13 | 2.8 | 67% | 58% | 33% | 11.0 | 53% | 4.9 | 72% | 25.9 | 75% | 294 | 138 | 77 | 79 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 5 |  Marseille | 36 | 62 | 53% | 1.7 | 64 | 50 | +14 | 3.2 | 72% | 61% | 42% | 8.7 | 36% | 4.4 | 71% | 23.8 | 58% | 406 | 200 | 107 | 99 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 57% |
| 6 |  Lille | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 53 | 41 | +12 | 2.6 | 67% | 39% | 19% | 9.4 | 42% | 4.4 | 64% | 24.1 | 67% | 273 | 130 | 76 | 68 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 7 |  Rennes | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 62 | 56 | +6 | 3.3 | 83% | 72% | 53% | 10.8 | 64% | 4.2 | 65% | 24.0 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 54% |
| 8 |  Monaco | 36 | 60 | 50% | 1.7 | 64 | 55 | +9 | 3.3 | 72% | 64% | 53% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.2 | 64% | 23.6 | 64% | 447 | 202 | 109 | 137 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 54% |
| 9 |  Strasbourg | 36 | 54 | 42% | 1.5 | 62 | 52 | +10 | 3.2 | 78% | 67% | 36% | 8.8 | 44% | 3.7 | 53% | 23.9 | 72% | 383 | 142 | 109 | 132 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 10 |  Lorient | 36 | 47 | 31% | 1.3 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 2.9 | 89% | 44% | 36% | 9.0 | 47% | 4.0 | 51% | 22.5 | 47% | 128 | 46 | 33 | 48 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 45% |
| 11 |  Toulouse | 35 | 44 | 34% | 1.3 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 3.0 | 69% | 57% | 37% | 9.6 | 54% | 4.3 | 66% | 25.1 | 77% | 182 | 32 | 41 | 109 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 12 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 2.8 | 81% | 50% | 28% | 9.8 | 47% | 3.6 | 51% | 24.0 | 61% | 91 | 29 | 22 | 39 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 13 |  Angers | 36 | 36 | 25% | 1.0 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 2.2 | 64% | 31% | 17% | 8.9 | 42% | 3.1 | 42% | 21.8 | 50% | 135 | 86 | 14 | 35 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 42% |
| 14 |  Nice | 38 | 36 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 66 | -25 | 2.8 | 74% | 50% | 42% | 10.7 | 66% | 3.9 | 55% | 23.3 | 50% | 198 | 85 | 40 | 73 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 47% |
| 15 |  Le Havre | 36 | 35 | 19% | 1.0 | 32 | 48 | -16 | 2.2 | 61% | 33% | 17% | 9.0 | 44% | 4.2 | 61% | 27.4 | 92% | 75 | 16 | 25 | 34 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 16 |  Auxerre | 36 | 34 | 22% | 0.9 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 2.2 | 61% | 42% | 25% | 9.5 | 42% | 4.8 | 69% | 27.1 | 86% | 92 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 17 |  Nantes | 35 | 23 | 14% | 0.7 | 29 | 56 | -27 | 2.4 | 66% | 46% | 20% | 9.5 | 49% | 4.5 | 69% | 26.2 | 80% | 118 | 50 | 23 | 45 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 42% |
| 18 |  Metz | 36 | 17 | 8% | 0.5 | 34 | 82 | -48 | 3.2 | 75% | 64% | 42% | 9.3 | 39% | 3.4 | 50% | 22.5 | 58% | 80 | 37 | 21 | 22 | 0.9 | 2.3 | 49% |
| 19 |  Rodez | 2 | 4 | 50% | 2.0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 50% | 8.0 | 50% | 3.5 | 50% | 24.5 | 100% | 22 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 38% |
| 20 |  Saint Etienne | 3 | 2 | 0% | 0.7 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 33% | 11.0 | 100% | 1.7 | 0% | 19.3 | 33% | 82 | 46 | 11 | 26 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 52% |
| 21 |  RED Star FC 93 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 100% | 5.0 | 0% | 5.0 | 100% | 23.0 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 63% |