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Maardu vs Elva Prediction & Stats

Date: 29/10/2026
Time: 16:00
Maardu
Maardu
Vs
30%
23%
47%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Maardu’s recent form shows a 2-game winning run, yet their home average of 2.25 goals scored and 3.5 conceded against similar opposition suggests a porous defense. Elva, playing away, has been on a win and now faces a side that has struggled defensively; their average of 1.62 goals scored and 1.85 conceded indicates they can find the net but may struggle to keep a clean sheet. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected total of 3.7 goals and a most likely total of three, reflecting the defensive frailties on both sides. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.2% probability, underscoring the likelihood of a balanced exchange. The probabilities for the match result are 30% home win, 23% draw, and 47% away win, making an away victory the favoured outcome. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (96.5%), Under 6.5 (91.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (91.5%), Over 1.5 (89.2%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.3%), Away +2 handicap (84.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (84.6%), and Under 5.5 (83.0%).

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maardu win
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elva win
46.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-832W18L31W41W12L10W01L31W42WH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.222.002.002.802.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)2.002.672.253.501.501.00
vs Weaker (3)2.670.671.000.003.501.00
Clean sheet %11% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-630W31W60W22D21W30W01L10W00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.771.131.431.002.061.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.751.251.331.002.171.50
vs Weaker (6)1.830.672.001.001.750.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%10%16%21%3%07%118%221%319%414%517%6+
The model estimates around 3.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.2%
Under 1.5
10.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
71.5%
Under 2.5
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
71.2%
No
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.2%
1-2
8.6%
2-2
7.1%
2-1
6.9%
1-3
5.9%
0-2
5.2%
2-3
4.8%
0-1
4.2%
Maardu goals ↓
Elva goals →
01234
03.3%4.2%5.2%3.6%1.9%
13.2%9.2%8.6%5.9%3.0%
23.3%6.9%7.1%4.8%2.5%
31.8%3.8%3.9%2.7%1.4%
40.7%1.5%1.6%1.1%0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maardu goals (down), columns = Elva goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Maardu and Elva are level in average points per game (both 2.00).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Maardu is 0.67 goals better than Elva in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 1.56).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Maardu is 1.22 goals worse than Elva in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 0.78).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Maardu or Draw
53.1%
Avg Implied -
30%
23%
47%
covers Maardu + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maardu or Elva
77.2%
Avg Implied -
30%
23%
47%
covers Maardu + Elva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Elva
69.7%
Avg Implied -
30%
23%
47%
covers Draw + Elva
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Maardu over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5
Over
48.9%
Under
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5
Over
22.8%
Under
77.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5
Over
87.3%
Under
12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5
Over
34.0%
Under
66.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 3.5
Over
15.4%
Under
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Maardu, so a minus line means Maardu give that many goals of a start and Elva receive them. At -1, Maardu must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Maardu win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Maardu)
Maardu -2
6.0%
Draw -2
9.1%
Elva +2
84.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Maardu)
Maardu -1
15.1%
Draw -1
15.2%
Elva +1
69.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Maardu)
Maardu +1
53.1%
Draw +1
19.3%
Elva -1
27.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Maardu)
Maardu +2
72.4%
Draw +2
14.3%
Elva -2
13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MaarduMaardu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W14L00D11D11D10W00D20W22DH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.001.401.600.750.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.331.502.000.000.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.331.000.001.500.50
Clean sheet %44% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-220W20W20W00D20W00D01L00D00D10WA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.500.430.430.690.56
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)0.500.500.330.420.670.58
vs Weaker (6)0.830.501.000.500.750.50
Clean sheet %60% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MaarduMaardu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L31W30W01L00D01L11D20WH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08H·FC 15/08A·ELV20/08A·TAL24/08H·FCI29/08
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.111.000.601.201.750.75
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (6)1.001.330.751.501.501.00
vs Weaker (3)1.330.330.000.002.000.50
Clean sheet %33% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elva) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ElvaElva

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W11D40W22D01L30W00D10W00D00DA·FC 11/07A·VII16/07A·LÄÄ22/07A·FCI01/08H·TAR08/08H·JOK12/08A·TAL15/08H·MAA20/08H·FLO24/08A·NÕM30/08
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.200.631.000.571.380.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (24)1.250.751.000.581.500.92
vs Weaker (6)1.000.171.000.501.000.00
Clean sheet %57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elva over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5Edge
Under 7.596.5%-------
Under 6.591.8%-------
Home under 3.5 goals91.5%-------
Over 1.589.2%-------
Away over 0.5 goals87.3%-------
Away +2 handicap84.9%-------
Away under 3.5 goals84.6%-------
Under 5.583.0%-------
Home over 0.5 goals80.7%-------
Home under 2.5 goals77.2%-------
Home or Away77.2%-------
Home +2 handicap72.4%-------
Over 2.571.5%-------
BTTS Yes71.2%-------

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
0
MAA wins
0
Draws
1
ELV wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Maardu vs Elva · H/A from MAA
DateH/AGameScore
20/08/26AElva Vs MAA1-0

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/08/26HMAA Vs FCI Levadia II4-2
24/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs MAA1-3
20/08/26AElva Vs MAA1-0
15/08/26HMAA Vs FC Tallinn1-0
08/08/26HMAA Vs Viimsi1-2
01/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs MAA1-4
18/07/26AFlora II Vs MAA1-3
13/07/26HMAA Vs Tartu Welco1-8
09/07/26HMAA Vs Flora II3-2

ElvaElva

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/08/26ANõmme United II Vs ELV0-1
24/08/26HELV Vs Flora II0-0
20/08/26HELV Vs Maardu1-0
15/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs ELV1-0
12/08/26HELV Vs Joker3-0
08/08/26HELV Vs Tartu Welco2-1
01/08/26AFCI Levadia II Vs ELV2-2
22/07/26ALäänemaa Haapsalu Vs ELV0-6
16/07/26AViimsi Vs ELV1-3
11/07/26AFC Tallinn Vs ELV0-3

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maardu
Maardu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 6 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWLWW2.00
HomeWLLWW1.80
AwayWWLW2.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %67%60%75%
AVG goals4.224.803.50
Over 1.5 %78%80%75%
Over 2.5 %78%80%75%
Over 3.5 %67%60%75%
Scored2.222.002.50
Conceded2.002.801.00
BTTS78%80%75%
Clean Sheet11%20%0%
Corners---
Cards---
Elva
Elva
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWDW1.80
HomeWWWWD1.84
AwayWWDLW1.76
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %54%56%52%
AVG goals3.223.003.44
Over 1.5 %82%80%84%
Over 2.5 %64%60%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.861.682.04
Conceded1.361.321.40
BTTS56%52%60%
Clean Sheet30%32%28%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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