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Maardu vs FC Tallinn Result & Analysis

Date: 15/08/2026
Time: 14:00
Final 1-0
Maardu
Maardu
Vs
28%
21%
52%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Maardu and FC Tallinn are set to clash in the Estonia Esiliiga A league. FC Tallinn's recent form has been impressive, coming off a draw against Tallinna Kalev. In contrast, Maardu suffered a defeat against Viimsi. This storyline suggests a high-scoring game, which aligns with the expected total goals of 4.2. The most likely total goals are 6+, with the model predicting a high-scoring match.

The most likely score is 1-2 in favour of FC Tallinn, with a probability of 7.9%. The away side's away form against stronger opponents is concerning, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Maardu's home form is also underwhelming, with an average of 1 goals scored and 5 conceded at home against stronger opponents.

The model's selection is an away win, with a probability of 52%. The model's other selections include Over 1.5 (92.6%), Over 2.5 (78.4%), and BTTS Yes (75.9%). Home win percentage is 28%, draw percentage is 21%, and away win percentage is 52%.

Results analysis

Maardu's win extends their run of coming off a win, following a 1-0 victory over FC Tallinn. The actual result was a home win, contrary to the model's selection of an away win, which it predicted with a 52% probability. The model's call was wrong. The model's selection of an away win was the pre-match favourite, while FC Tallinn was coming off a defeat, having lost 0-1 to Maardu in their previous encounter. The model's suggested picks all missed: Over 1.5 was predicted with a 92.6% probability, but there were only one goal; Over 2.5 was predicted with a 78.5% probability, but there were only one goal; BTTS Yes was predicted with a 75.9% probability, but only one team scored.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Maardu win✓ Hit
27.6%
Avg Implied 56.0% · @ 1.60
Edge
-28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.70
Dafabet
1.64
William Hil
1.62
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.60
Draw✗ Miss
20.7%
Avg Implied 21.2% · @ 4.24
Edge
-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
4.40
Betano
4.35
10Bet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Marathonbet
4.30
FC Tallinn win✗ Miss
51.7%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 3.94
Edge
+28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Betfair
4.20
William Hil
4.00
Dafabet
3.90

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 – goals for & against
80-832W18L31W41W12LH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08
Avg total
5.2
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
2.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.402.801.674.003.501.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)2.003.251.674.003.001.00
vs Weaker (1)4.001.00--4.001.00
Clean sheet %0% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-606L12L25L22D00D03L20W41W10W11DA·TRA30/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11H·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.002.131.731.932.272.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.852.191.312.152.382.23
vs Weaker (4)3.001.754.500.501.503.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%2%05%114%219%319%416%524%6+
The model estimates around 4.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
92.6%
@ 1.07+5.1%
Under 1.5
7.4%
@ 7.50-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
7.00
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
78.5%
@ 1.26+6.2%
Under 2.5
21.5%
@ 3.29-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.21
Under
Betfair
3.60
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.20
Unibet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
59.7%
@ 1.70+6.0%
Under 3.5
40.3%
@ 1.97-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.74
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.74
Betfair
1.73
Betano
1.70
Under
Betfair
2.10
10Bet
2.00
Pinnacle
1.96
Marathonbet
1.96
1xBet
1.96
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
75.9%
@ 1.32+6.3%
No
24.1%
@ 3.03-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
No
Betfair
3.30
William Hil
3.00
1xBet
2.95
Marathonbet
2.88

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-2
7.9%@ 12.80+4.6%
1-1
7.3%@ 9.30+2.8%
2-2
7.0%@ 10.20+2.9%
1-3
6.3%@ 23.80+4.6%
2-1
5.8%@ 8.20+0.7%
2-3
5.6%@ 20.00+3.5%
0-2
4.5%@ 26.60+2.9%
3-2
4.1%@ 13.20+0.9%
Maardu goals ↓
FC Tallinn goals →
01234
02.2%3.1%4.5%3.6%2.2%
12.1%7.3%7.9%6.3%3.8%
22.4%5.8%7.0%5.6%3.3%
31.4%3.4%4.1%3.3%2.0%
40.6%1.5%1.8%1.4%0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Maardu goals (down), columns = FC Tallinn goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Maardu
2.00
Elva
2.00
FCI Levadia II
1.78
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Viimsi
1.60
Tartu Welco
1.50
Flora II
1.27
FC Tallinn
1.22
Nõmme United II
0.89
Nõmme Kalju II
0.50
Maardu is 0.78 points better than FC Tallinn in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.22).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Tartu Welco
2.62
Viimsi
2.30
Maardu
2.22
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Flora II
1.82
Tallinna Kalev
1.62
Elva
1.56
Nõmme United II
1.00
Nõmme Kalju II
0.90
FC Tallinn
0.89
Maardu is 1.33 goals better than FC Tallinn in terms of goals scored per game (2.22 vs 0.89).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Elva
0.78
FC Tallinn
1.22
Flora II
1.36
Viimsi
1.40
Tallinna Kalev
1.75
Nõmme United II
1.78
Tartu Welco
1.88
Maardu
2.00
FCI Levadia II
2.11
Nõmme Kalju II
2.70
Maardu is 0.78 goals worse than FC Tallinn in terms of goals conceded per game (2.00 vs 1.22).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

MaarduMaardu

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W14L00D11D11DH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.001.401.332.000.500.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.001.501.332.000.000.00
vs Weaker (1)1.001.00--1.001.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L11D10W00D00D02L20W00D00D11DA·TRA30/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11H·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.771.030.471.071.071.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.691.120.311.151.081.08
vs Weaker (4)1.250.501.500.501.000.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

MaarduMaardu

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D04L31W30W01LH·FLO09/07H·TAR13/07A·FLO18/07A·NÕM01/08H·VII08/08
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.401.400.332.003.000.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (4)1.001.750.332.003.001.00
vs Weaker (1)3.000.00--3.000.00
Clean sheet %20% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Tallinn) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-504L01L15L22D00D01L00D41W10W00DA·TRA30/10H·VII02/11A·LUU09/11A·PHO15/11H·PHO22/11H·ELV11/07A·TAR18/07H·TAL28/07H·FLO01/08A·TAL08/08
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.101.270.871.201.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.151.081.001.001.311.15
vs Weaker (4)1.751.253.000.000.502.50
Clean sheet %40% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Maardu) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Maardu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maardu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Tallinn over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.6%1.07
1xBet
1.08
Betfair
1.07
---+5.1%✗ Miss
Over 2.578.5%1.26
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.26
Marathonbet
1.26
Betfair
1.25
Unibet
1.21
+6.2%✗ Miss
BTTS Yes75.9%1.32
Marathonbet
1.33
William Hil
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Betfair
1.30
-+6.3%✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings
0
MAA wins
0
Draws
0
FT wins

Head-to-head

Maardu vs FC Tallinn · H/A from MAA
DateH/AGameScore
No games.

MaarduMaardu

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26HMAA Vs Viimsi1-2
01/08/26ANõmme Kalju II Vs MAA1-4
18/07/26AFlora II Vs MAA1-3
13/07/26HMAA Vs Tartu Welco1-8
09/07/26HMAA Vs Flora II3-2

FC TallinnFC Tallinn

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
08/08/26ATallinna Kalev Vs FT1-1
01/08/26HFT Vs Flora II1-0
28/07/26HFT Vs Tallinna FC Zapoos4-1
18/07/26ATartu Welco Vs FT0-2
11/07/26HFT Vs Elva0-3
22/11/25HFT Vs Phoenix0-0
15/11/25APhoenix Vs FT2-2
09/11/25ALuunja Vs FT5-2
02/11/25HFT Vs Viimsi1-2
30/10/25ATrans Narva Vs FT6-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Maardu
Maardu
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 0 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.80
HomeWLL1.00
AwayWW3.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %60%33%100%
AVG goals5.205.674.50
Over 1.5 %100%100%100%
Over 2.5 %100%100%100%
Over 3.5 %80%67%100%
Scored2.401.673.50
Conceded2.804.001.00
BTTS100%100%100%
Clean Sheet0%0%0%
Corners---
Cards---
FC Tallinn
FC Tallinn
Estonia: Esiliiga A
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWWWD1.26
HomeLDLWW1.21
AwayLLDWD1.31
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%33%35%
AVG goals3.823.464.15
Over 1.5 %90%88%92%
Over 2.5 %66%62%69%
Over 3.5 %52%42%62%
Scored1.861.712.00
Conceded1.961.752.15
BTTS62%62%62%
Clean Sheet18%21%15%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ElvaElva918
56%
2.0
147+7
2.3
56%
56%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.60.8
-
2MaarduMaardu918
67%
2.0
2018+2
4.2
78%
78%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.22.0
-
3ViimsiViimsi1016
50%
1.6
2314+9
3.7
100%
100%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.31.4
-
4FCI Levadia IIFCI Levadia II916
56%
1.8
1919+0
4.2
100%
89%
67%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.12.1
-
5Flora IIFlora II1114
36%
1.3
2015+5
3.2
82%
73%
45%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.81.4
-
6Tallinna KalevTallinna Kalev813
50%
1.6
1314-1
3.4
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
-
7Tartu WelcoTartu Welco812
50%
1.5
2115+6
4.5
100%
88%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0002.61.9
-
8FC TallinnFC Tallinn911
33%
1.2
811-3
2.1
78%
33%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.91.2
-
9Nõmme United IINõmme United II98
22%
0.9
916-7
2.8
89%
56%
22%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.8
-
10Nõmme Kalju IINõmme Kalju II105
10%
0.5
927-18
3.6
100%
70%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.7
-
Estonia: Esiliiga A 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Estonia: Esiliiga A stats & trends →

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